Nicolas Sarkozy quits politics…again

So the former French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has promised to leave politics.

His announcement came on the eve of his defeat in the first round of the primary to choose the candidate from the centre-right in next year’s presidential elections.

Nicolas Sarkozy (screenshot BBC News)

Sarkozy finished a distant third to his former prime minister during his five-year spell in office from 2002-2007, François Fillon, and blast-from-the-past hopeful (and another former prime minister) Alain Juppé.

Yes, how ironic that Fillon,  the man Sarkozy had described (apparently off-the-record) as his “assistant while the boss, that’s me” back in August 2007 “romped” to victory with just over 44 per cent of the four million who turned out to vote with Juppé (28.6) second and Sarkozy third (20.6).

The top two will now go head to head in a second round of voting on Sunday 27 November.

An unusually subdued and dignified Sarkozy thanked just about everyone possible during his speech in which he conceded defeat and gave his support in next Sunday’s round to his former “assistant” - moving many of his fans (because the cult of personality is and was at the core of Sarkozy’s approach to politics) to tears.

Sniff, sniff.

Just a shame the 62-year-old hadn’t been a little more noble and distinguished earlier in the day when he went to vote.

While Fillon, Juppé and the other four candidates had been happy to stand patiently in line while waiting to vote in their respective constituencies, Sarkozy, presumably not wanting to rub shoulders for too long with the (well-heeled) hoi polloi of the swanky XVI arrondissement in Paris, jumped the queue.

Jumped the queue.

Surely the way he will be lovingly remembered and treasured by his devotees.

And as for stepping out of the limelight to "have a life with more passion privately and less publicly”…cue that interview in March 2012 with Jean-Jacques Bourdin perhaps.

Rachida Dati’s “fascist, thug” 2013 text message to Brice Hortefeux

Well, it’s quite a while since either of these two French politicians has made the headlines.

But hey, here they are. Rachida Dati and Brice Hortefeux.

And what a handbags at dawn session they must have had when they were both frontline government ministers.

That’s if the text message sent by Dati to Hortefeux a couple of years ago (but revealed last week) is anything to go by.

It shows just how loving, friendly and understanding members of the same party and government can be towards each other.

Rachida Dati's text message to Brice Hortefeux (screenshot Mediapart's tweet)

Set the scene.

It’s September 2013.

And the former justice minister and current member of the European parliament and mayor of the seventh arrondissement of Paris (yes, wearing two political hats simultaneously - a very French tradition), Rachida Dati, whips of a text message to (take a deep breath…at least there’s some punctuation to allow you to respire while you’re reading) Brice Hortefeux, former interior minister and employment minister and also a current member of the European parliament and a councillor (and second vice president no less) for the recently-created region of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes .

The two protagonists - both close to former (there’s evidently a lot this “pastness” going around) president (and wanna-do-it-all-over-again hopeful) Nicolas Sarkozy - clearly had what could be termed (politely) a “strained” relationship.

That’s going on the evidence of Dati’s SMS.

Rachida Dati (screenshot BFM TV September 2016)

The tone is set from the very opening words by Dati greeting Hortefeux with,“Salut le facho”!

And then continuing with a barrage of menaces such as revealing “the cash he had been given for a number of meetings involving Sarkozy without specifying what the money had been used for” and his “illegal employment of his wife at the European parliament”.

“Tu me fous la paix” (you can translate that for yourselves on one of the many online services, but it basically means “stop messing around with me” - but in a far more vulgar manner), Dati ends with a flourish, calling Hortefeux a “thug” and threatening once again that she won’t be fooled with.

Phew.

Thanks Mediapart - a French online investigative and opinion journal - for sharing that apparently “private” email with us. Good work.

And the reason for Dati’s vitriol? Apart from the fact that the former ministers clearly didn’t get along.

Well, once again, according to Mediapart, it was because she had got wind of Hortefeux’s  suggestion that her “air and border police privileges be stopped”.

Behind the scene advisers apparently managed to calm the two (mainly Dati) and the incident is now no longer either wants to remember…with Hortefeux admitting on BFM TV that “relations with his former government colleagues had been difficult at times, but the page had now be turned.”

For the moment?

Christine Boutin’s latest Twitter gaffe - lacking dignity and class

You know some people (politicians in particular) should not be allowed anywhere near a microphone. It only encourages them to utter the most absurd ideas in the mistaken belief that they’re making sense.

Similarly they should think twice - nay thrice - before allowing themselves to share the benefit of their “thoughts” on social media platforms.

Nadine Morano springs to mind. A classic example of someone who’s “good” for a soundbite although many would probably wish she were less of a buffoon.

And then there’s Christine Boutin.

Sigh.

Another “serial offender”.

(caricature of) Christine Boutin “La vache qui prie” - although there’s none of the “tendrement conne” in her latest Tweet (screenshot from Canal + Le Grand Journal video, February, 2016).

Yes, the ex-housing minister and founder and former president of the Christian Democratic Party, well-known for her opposition to civil partnership (for two men or two women) and same-sex marriage (and currently appealing a fine for having said that homosexuality was an “abomination”) has taken to the Twittersphere with her usual “panache”.

This time around though, there’s none of the eye-rolling “here she goes again” reaction. Rather she has committed what many consider to be a monumentally offensive gaffe.

As you might know the former French president, Jacques Chirac, has been hospitalised.

The 83-year-old reportedly has a lung infection, the most recent in a series of health scares.

His wife, Bernadette, has also been admitted, suffering from exhaustion.

A number of French politicians, including the front runners for Les Républicains primary Alain Juppé and Nicolas Sarkozy, as well as the current French president, François Hollande, have “expressed their support” for Chirac and his wife.

Enter stage right Boutin, finger-twitching presumably to announce in just three words on Twitter the death of Jacques Chirac - remembering to use the hashtag of course!

And how did she react when faced with the obvious truth that she had got it all wrong (yet again).

By defending herself in claiming that the information had come from “ a reliable source” and that she had shared it because, in her words, “I think the French are waiting for it, as shown by the buzz it has generated.”

Nothing like an apology!

And Boutin’s response was nothing like and apology.

What class.

Why Nicolas Sarkozy should withdraw from the presidential primary race

Even though Nicolas Sarkozy is popular with a sizeable chunk of the centre-right Les Républicains (LR) party faithful, the French in general could probably come up with a fair number of reasons why he shouldn’t take part in the primary to choose next year’s presidential candidate.

After all, Sarkozy’s popularity in those ubiquitous opinion polls might have risen since he officially launched his campaign, but he still has some ground to make up on his main rival, Alain Juppé.

Nicolas Sarkozy (screenshot Euronews “Zapping” August 2016)

More importantly, no matter how sceptical you might be about the veracity of opinion polls, a whopping 79 per cent of the French don’t want to see Sarkozy at the Elysée palace.

Not surprising really as he has already had the job once.

And, in spite of all his pugnacity, Sarkozy proved he really wasn’t up to achieving much on political, economic and social fronts, while reducing the role of president to that of an often ill-mannered (“Casse-toi alors, pauv' con !”) impetuous caricature.

Then there’s his programme (as outlined in his latest bestseller “Tout pour la France”) - an almost knee-jerk reaction to the increase in support over the past years for the far right Front National by proposing policies that would move LR further to the right and taking a hard line on identity, immigration and security.

But most importantly there’s the so-called Bygmalion affair - when Sarkozy’s party, then known as Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP) allegedly “connived with a friendly PR company (Bygmalion) to hide the true cost of his 2012 presidential election campaign” and thereby breaking the limits allowed on campaign spending.

On Monday, the French prosecutor's office recommended that Sarkozy should stand trial for breaching campaign spending limits.

“A crude political manoeuvre”, claimed Sarkozy supporters and in particular his lawyer, Thierry Herzog; the inference being that the judicial system bowed to pressure from the Elysée palace.

And the timing - coming as it did on the opening day of the trial of Jérôme Cahuzac (remember, the former budget minister in charge of cracking down on tax evasion who was forced to resign in April 2013 after he admitted he had held  a secret foreign bank account for about 20 years) was too much of a coincidence and simply evidence that the government (read, the French president, François Hollande) was “using the French justice system to divert attention (from the opening of the trial).

Yes, well. There might well be some credibility on both counts as few would maintain that politicians are the most ethical of creatures.

But, here’s the crux of the matter. It’s not really important whether Sarkozy - as he claims - knew nothing about the false accounting and overspending, the fact remains that he was the beneficiary.

“That’s why he should withdraw,” said Christophe Barbier, managing editor of the weekly news magazine “L’Express” on his morning slot on BFM TV.

“He was maybe unaware of what was happening,” said Barbier. “But he was the one who benefitted (from the incredible overspending and false accounting) politically and electorally. And that’s the reason he should withdraw,” he repeated, “If only for reasons of humility.”

Yes. Well. Hardly one of Sarkozy’s main attributes.

Nicolas Sarkozy’s non-shock presidential election candidacy announcement

Well that’s a turn up for the books.

Former French president, Nicolas Sarkozy has announced that he’s to run in the primary to choose the candidate who’ll represent the Right and Centre-Right at next year’s presidential elections in France.

Screenshot Nicolas Sarkozy Twitter

Yes, the same man who, back in 2012 assured viewers, during an interview with Jean-Jacques Bourdin on BFMTV, that he would “retire from politics” if he lost that year’s presidential elections, has joined 14 other hopefuls - a decision which surprises absolutely nobody.


Archive 2012 - Quand Sarkozy assurait qu'il... par BFMTV

The announcement was the kind of political non-event which pretty much sums up politics in general in this country, and the tradition whereby those defeated in earlier elections, along with disgraced politicians, attempt a comeback.

You know, “Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose”. Or in the case of French politics, the same old faces keep popping up all the time.

Take a look at just a few of those on the list for the primary.

Ex prime minister Alain Juppé who has made his way back from a criminal conviction for abuse of public funds to become the man most likely to be able to beat Sarkozy.

Jean-François Copé, the former president of the Centre Right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a popular movement, (which under Sarkozy’s second stint as chairman renamed itself Les Republicans) who was forced to resign from that post following the Bygmalion invoices scandal (about which he knew nothing of course).

François Fillon - another former prime minister (under Sarkozy). Squeaky clean (in French political terms although there was that “storm in a teacup” scandal in 2014 when he reportedly encouraged one of François Hollande’s closest advisers at the Elysée Palace, Jean-Pierre Jouyet, to “accelerate” judicial proceedings against Sarkozy) but rather…er…dull.

Nadine Morano - no criminal convictions - but plenty of - let’s be polite - “barmy” Tweets (she’s an adept at Social Media) and controversial statements (such as France being  “a Judeo-Christian country, of white race")

Then there’s…

No, to list all of them would increase the yawn factor inexorably. And besides, with Sarkozy’s entry into the race, some will more than likely drop out.

Ah yes - that entry. Long expected and accompanied by a book (of course) “Tout pour la France” in which he outlines his “ideas” for the future of this country, and a scheduled appearance on prime time TV news.

Sarkozy has his work cut out. He might well be popular among his supporters (pretty much a foregone conclusion as it would be disastrous if he weren’t) but, if those never-ending opinion polls are to be believed, among the general population he’s unpopular and a majority have said they would not like to see him stand.

Oh well, too late now.

Affaire à suivre

Alain Juppé calls on UMP supporters to vote against Front National in Doubs by-election

No, not the most thrilling or exciting of headlines at face value.

But rather telling on a number of levels about the state of the opposition Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP).

First some background.

Last weekend saw the first round in voting in a by-election in the département of Doubs in eastern France.

It was to contest the seat made available by the forced resignation of the former finance minister, Pierre Moscovici who has since gone on to a cushy number at the higher European Commission level.

A "safe" Socialist party seat in theory.

But, as we all know, the governing Socialist party (PS) isn't exactly "flavour of the month" and the French president, François Hollande...well, although his popularity ratings increased recently after his handling of the Paris attacks in January) the road to a possible second term in 2017 remains a difficult one.

Add to that the disarray that still exists within the UMP and the far-right Front National's (FN) leader, Marine Le Pen's, strategy of combining disaffection with the two major parties with her own populist appeal, and it wasn't suprising that the FN's candidate, Sophie Montel, topped last Sunday's first round of voting in the by-election.

What was unexpected though - certainly for the UMP - was that its candidate, Charles Demouge, only finished third behind Montel and a couple of points adrift of the Socialst party's Frédéric Barbier.

UMP eliminated and Montel to face Barbier in a second round run-off.

And that has put the UMP in something of a quandary - although it shouldn't really.

Its recently-elected leader (a certain Nicolas Sarkozy - you'll surely have heard of him) had promised "unity" in an attempt to resolve party divisions of recent years.

But his slow reaction to the first round vote in Doubs, coupled with some of the party's leading members clearly stating the very opposite of what he is most likely to propose, has once against highlighted the UMP's discord.

The party's number two, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, appeared on BFM TV on Monday morning to give her reaction to the Doubs ballot and how would recommend UMP supporters cast their votes in the second round.

"I would choose to vote for the candidate that opposed the Front National," she said, admitting that it was probably a minority position within the UMP but one she defended nonetheless.

"The Socialist party leaves the country 'desperate'," she said. "But the Front National would disfigure France."



And joining her - even though he had maintained before the first round that he wouldn't comment on the outcome, was Alain Juppé.

Writing on his blog, Juppé clearly called for UMP supporters to cast their vote in the second round to the Socialist party's candidate to "block" the FN.

"Our main political rival now is the FN.," he wrote.

"Whether it can reach power is no longer a hypothetical question and in my opinion this would be a catastrophe for our country.”

Actually his words were much more powerful that that - you can read the full text here.

Alain Juppé (screenshot Europe 1 interview)

Juppé, of course, is a declared candidate in the UMP's primary to determine its 2017 presidential candidate.

A likely opponent and his main one - if you believe political pundits - is expected to be Sarkozy who so far seems to be in favour of the "neither, nor" policy of refusing to endorse any of the two remaining candidates and instead allow (UMP) voters to decide for themselves.

Yes - the courage of convictions and political principles is astounding.

And he's taking plenty of time to come up with a grand design which might well be ignored by those (few) who bother to vote anyway.

Montel might have officially come top in the first round of voting but the big winner was the 60 per cent abstention rate.

#ouestsarkozy and #JesuisNico trend after Nicolas Sarkozy's front row appearance at Paris march

Of course it's all a matter of interpretation,

But the French media and social networks have been having a little bit of (harmless) fun at the expense of the former French president, Nicolas Sarkozy.

He was invited, in his capacity as the newly-elected leader of the opposition centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) party to take part in Sunday's rally in Paris.

And, after meeting his successor at the Elysée palace, François Hollande, Sarkozy graciously accepted.

Somehow though, Sarkozy didn't seem happy to play second fiddle - so-to-speak - as he found himself a couple of rows back from the front of the march.

That highly-esteemed position was given to world leaders who had made the trip to Paris to take part in the rally: leaders such as German chancellor Angela Merkel, Mali's president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, Britain's David Cameron, Spain's Mariano Rajoy and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu

They were all snapped by the world's cameras alongside Hollande.

In total, 44 heads of state or government turned up.

And so too was Sarkozy who, on more than one occasion, managed to worm his way through to the front...where he presumably thought he so rightfully belonged...with his "fellow world leaders".

World leaders - and Nicolas Sarkozy - at the Paris march (screenshot from Europe 1 Dailymotion video)

Such "antics" soon saw Sarkozy ridiculed on the Net with Twitter a-tweet and Tumblr a-Tumblr (well you can't really say awash now, can you?) with photoshopped images of other world events (throughout history) that Sarkozy has "attended."

#JeSuisNico and #ouestsarkozy (a play on the "Where's Wally?" series of children's books which in France are known as "Où est Charlie?") were launched.

And there was Sarkozy alongside Charles de Gaulle after the liberation of Paris in 1944.

On the moon, ahead of Neil Armstrong, in 1969

Present and participating in the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.

With the French football team as they lifted the World Cup in 1998

And...well you get the picture.

Yes Sarkozy really was an eyewitness to history down the decades.


Nicolas Sarkozy s'impose sur la photo by LeLab_E1

Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé - the battle of the opinion polls

Another day, another poll - and one involving the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy...of course.

Well it is France after all.

Yes, there are other things happening in France - and not just in the world of political surveys.

Sarkozy, for example, is busy "pleasing all" (or trying to)  and attempting to unite the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) as he puts together a team resembling a shadow cabinet (divisions included) since winning, in less convincing fashion than he had probably anticipated, the battle for the leadership of his party last weekend.

But the poll looks to the future (er...don't they always, in so far as they're asking speculative questions?) and in particular the expected (political) handbags at dawn "combat" to become the UMP's candidate for the 2017 presidential campaign.

Anyway the latest poll, carried out - just before the UMP leadership election - by YouGov on behalf of the all-news channels i>Télé and Le Huffington Post.

It's essentially to show in order of popularity, how French politicians (or at least their images) rate with the public - "about which of these - answer as many times as you wish - do have a positive opinion?"

And the outcome is that the big winners in the past month (the so-called "Tops"), in terms of how they're perceived by the French electorate at large are Bruno Le Maire and the man who could well push Sarkozy all the way in the expected primary to be the UMP's next presidential candidate, Alain Juppé.

Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé at a meeting in Bordeaux, November 2014 (screenshot AFP report)

The tables aren't exactly easy to read (when are these things ever - go to this link and open the pdf file) but the Huff Post neatly sums up the survery's findings with Juppé and Le Maire both on the upswing (their "Tops" and Sarkozy losing a few points 'and appearing among the "Flops").

Oh yes...and look at who's at number two on the "positive" list - Marine Le Pen.

Just for a bit of fun, take a look also at the second table which shows those politicians who most engender a negative image (the Flops).

Right up there towards the top (just after Jean-Marie Le Pen and ahead of Jean-François Copé and Marine Le Pen) is Sarkozy - surely adding to the general feeling that he is able to unite and divide opinion (a little like Marine Le Pen) at the same time but one thing's for certain...he doesn't leave anyone indifferent.

Oh yes...and there's a slight increase in the popularity of the current president, François Hollande, and the prime minister, Manuel Valls. But not enough to be of any real significance.

They really need a better PR team - or perhaps policies that actually work...whoops.

And if the French were to vote in parliamentary elections today...?

Warning - this piece contains so many numbers, it could serious "do your head in"

A polls has been published in France today which, in and of itself, means very little because it's based on a false premise.

But (and you knew there would be one) it's enough to give the current government, the Socialist party (PS) and in fact the whole of the political Left, the heebie-jeebies.

If (conditional) there were a parliamentary election in France today (and the next one isn't due until June 2017) the Left, and in particular the PS, would suffer a humiliating (to say the least) defeat.

All right, so the poll appears in Le Figaro, a national daily not exactly known for it's love of the PS and whose chairman happens to be Serge Dassault, a member of the opposition centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) and a member of the Senate since 2004.

And was it was carried out by l'Institut CSA (conseil, sondage et analyse) part of the Bolloré group whose president and Chief executive officer, Vincent Bolloré, just happens to be a friend of the newly-elected leader the UMP - Nicolas Sarkozy.

But don't start reading too much into those "facts". They're just an aside as, after all, a poll is just a poll - isn't it?

It has to be both objective and representative.

So what does the Le Figaro's poll "indicate" - bearing in mind that the imaginary election is not going to happen today.

Well...

Using the current two-round majority system, the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) and the centrist Union des démocrates et indépendants (Union of democrats and independents, UDI) would win between 485 and 505 of the 577 seats in the national assembly.

"A level never obtained by the centre-right" points out Le Figaro which published the poll. "Better even than the 1993 parliamentary election results (when the two centre-right/centrist parties of the time, the Rassemblement pour la République and the Union pour la démocratie française, won 257 and 215 seats respectively)."

The far-right Front National, FN (currently with just two members of parliament) would see it numbers increase to anything from 14 to 24 seats.

And the Left - including the Socialist party, the Greens and the Front de Gauche?

Well they would have to be satisfied with between 56 and 66 seats.

The make up of the national assembly if an election were held today (screenshot "La Nouvelle Édition" - Canal +)

And the "debacle" for the PS would hardly be avoided (although it would be less humiliating) if a system of proportional representation were used.

UMP and UDI - between 208 and 248 seats.
The Left - (PS, Greens and Front de Gauche) - between 180 and 220 (hardly respectable...but)
FN - between 138 and 159 seats.

Draw your own conclusions as to how to interpret the figures and even the value of the (yet another) poll.

But a clearer picture will emerge next year as...guess what.

There will be elections...departmental on March 22 and 29 and regional...at some later date once the territorial reform (the proposal to reduce of the number of regions from 22 to 13 in metropolitan France) has finally been signed, sealed and delivered.

Has Nicolas Sarkozy shot himself in foot with calls to repeal France's same-sex marriage law?

Well it sure looks that way - at least partially.

The former French president finally came off the fence, so-to-speak, when he announced at the weekend that the same-sex marriage law in France should be repealed.

Nicolas Sarkozy at Sens Commun meeting (screenshot i>Télé report)

His comments came during a meeting held by Sens Commun (Common sense), a fringe movement founded within the opposition centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) and one which had, and continues to have, close ties to the "Manif pour tous".

If that sounds familiar, it'll be because "Manif pour tous" was the organisation which most vociferously opposed same-sex marriage legislation (and joint adoption) and organised several large scale demonstrations in the run-up to the April 2013 parliamentary debates and votes.

In fact "Manif pour tous" is still going strong, campaigning under its current president, Ludovine de La Rochère, for family values and against assisted reproductive technology, surrogate mothers, same-sex couples having the right to marry and/or adopt children.

Yes, it's an organisation with its sights set on the past and not on the here-and-now and certainly not the future (unless it resembles the past).

Anyway, Sens Commun pulled off something of a coup by having all three candidates for the UMP leadership (to be decided by UMP members' votes in a fortnight's time) turn up to a weekend meeting.

First up (and the three men didn't appear on stage together but rather one after the other) was Bruno Le Maire, jeered when he announced he would not seek to scrap the law that had been passed allowing same-sex marriage.

Next up Hervé Mariton, a firm opponent to same-sex marriage and roundly applauded for his stance.

Finally it was Sarkozy's turn in front of an audience far from being impartial and eager (too eager perhaps) to hear him tell them what they wanted to hear.

And Sarkozy was happy to oblige - at first in words that seemed somewhat coded.

"Let's be clear about this, the Taubira law (for same-sex marriage, named after the justice minister, Christiane Taubira, who steered the legislation through parliament) needs to be completely rewritten from the top to the bottom," he said, happy to oblige in a language he thought would mollify those present.

But then as the chant of "Repeal, repeal, repeal," from the audience became stronger, Sarkozy  hardened his tone.

"All right, if you would rather that the law be repealed and another passed...in French, that's saying the same thing. The result is the same. But hey, if it make you happy, then frankly it doesn't cost much."

Rapturous applause from those listening. Sarkozy had said exactly what they wanted him to.

Nicolas Sarkozy propose d'abroger la loi Taubira - Le 15/11/2014 à 20h00

He might not be against extending the civil partnership rights (PACS) that exist for same-sex couples, but he wants to rewrite the law on marriage.

Hey ho. That'll be an easy one to get past the Conseil Constitutionnel - withdrawing a right of equality that exists to replace it with...something less.

So how far has Sarkozy shot himself in the foot?

Well only moderately.

Firstly, Sarkozy has made a mockery of the claim that he represents the unifying saviour of the party because some high ranking members and supporters of his push to become UMP leader, immediately responded that they were not in favour of repealing the legislation allowing same-sex marriage.

Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, Sarkozy's spokeperson during the 2012 presidential campaign said repeal was "neither desirable, nor possible".

The mayor of Nice and a minister during Sarkozy's "reign" as president, Christian Estrosi, said there should be no going back on the law and that it had been a "step forward".

And much the same sentiments from other former ministers, Frédéric Lefebvre, Valérie Pécresse and most notably Alain Juppé, a declared candidate for the UMP's primary to choose its candidate for the 2017 presidential election and the biggest threat to Sarkozy should he decide to throw his hat into that particular battle.

Even - and this will surely have come as a shock to many - one of Sarkozy's most fervent supporters, Nadine Morano, seemed unhappy with his statement, tweeting (as is her preferred method of communication) "The French had expected other priorities than the rewriting of the Taubira law."

Secondly Sarkozy was seriously misreading public opinion at large.

Same-sex marriage - yes or no - might have been a subject of debate over 18 months ago.

But the vote has passed and recent surveys show a majority of French (68 per cent) are in favour of same-sex marriage and 53 per cent believe couples of the same sex should be allowed to adopt - together.

That said, Sarkozy's stance is unlikely to have done him any harm with UMP members. He'll still more than likely romp home to win the leadership contest.

But it has displayed once again his predisposition for telling people (in this case an audience composed largely of those opposing same-sex marriage) what they wanted to hear without really having the (constitutional) tools to deliver.

It might not be easy understanding Bernadette Chirac...but

If you've been following French politics recently, it will surely not have escaped your notice that Bernadette Chirac has been making the headlines.

Bernadette Chirac (screenshot Europe 1 January 2014)

Her outspoken (and some would say "fervent") support for Nicolas Sarkozy in his campaign to become leader of the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) and possible run to be the party's candidate in the 2017 presidential elections has most probably both amused and bemused many French.

Especially as it has been accompanied by unapologetic salvoes fired at Alain Juppé, the man who would most likely present Sarkozy with the strongest challenge in the planned primary to choose the party's candidate for 2017 but of whom Bernadette said, "he's a very unwelcoming person. He doesn't win over people, friends and potential voters."

In a recent piece in Le Figaro entitled "Dans la tête de Bernadette Chirac" writer and journalist, Irina de Chikoff, gives some insight into the behaviour of France's former first lady.

And it certainly seems that Bernadette, wearing her trademark sunglasses whenever she's being interviewed, is far from being the cantankerous old lady set on saying and doing anything and everything to annoy her husband, Jacques Chirac, French president from 1995 to 2007 of course.

The time when Bernadette dutifully (and most often quietly) remained in the shadows of her husband is over and now she feels able to speak freely.

But it's not something that has happened overnight.

Instead, it's a process that began, by Bernadette's own admission,  back in 1997 when Chirac dissolved parliament a year before its term was up thinking the French would support him and return a majority allowing the re-appointment of Juppé as prime minister.

Chirac though had misread the electorate and it was a left-wing coalition of the Socialist party, Communists and Greens which obtained a majority, enabling Lionel Jospin to become prime minister and forcing five years of cohabitation or what Chirac described as "paralysis" as his political influence on domestic policy was "constrained" - to put it mildly.

"I was absolutely against the idea of dissolution and I told him," she admitted to Laurent Delahousse during a recent edition of "Un jour, un destin" on France 2, dedicated to France's former first lady.

Bernadette's  dislike and distrust of Juppé is as deep-rooted as her husband's admiration and support for the man he has described as "the best among us".

And her support for Sarkozy?

Well for Chikoff, it's not a case of Bernadette trying to annoy her husband.

Rather she sees in Sarkozy the same sort of energy and resilience Chirac once had.

"She holds no grudges against him (Sarkozy) - well almost none - for the times when he might have been politically disloyal to her husband," writes Chikoff.

"She would have liked to have had a son like Nicolas and that's why she's prepared to indulge him...as any mother would."

So, if Sarkozy wins November's battle for the leadership of the UMP and decides to take a run for the party's primary, we can probably expect to here more - plenty more - from the lady behind the sunglasses.

Be prepared.



Bernadette Chirac se mobilise pour les... by Europe1fr

Nicolas Sarkozy scores poorly among French on perceived honesty ratings

Whoopee!

Yet another poll.

Yes, the country which seems to delight in publishing a legion of surveys on an almost frighteningly (well, it would be if you were really to take them seriously) basis has now explored how "honest" some of the leading lights in the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) are.

All right, to give the free daily Metronews and TF1's all-news channel LCI credit, it could well be argued that the poll, which they commissioned CLAI to carry out, has a deservedly newsworthy angle.

There's an UMP leadership contest scheduled for the end of November with former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, the favourite to beat Bruno Le Maire and Hervé Mariton, the other two declared candidates.

And of course Sarkozy, currently touring the country with his "one man show" (below is a BFM TV video report, if you're interested), is widely thought to be considering a run to be the party's candidate for the 2017 presidential election.

Should he, as many predict, eventually decide to enter the party's planned primary (some time in 2016) he'll find himself up against the likes of Alain Juppé and François Fillon.

Nicolas Sarkozy "One man show" (screenshot BFM TV)

So, a poll to measure how honest the French perceive UMP politicians (in this case) to be, would seem timely...if not exactly a good use of...time (and money that is).

Surely nobody - or at least, very few - would rate politicians high in the honesty stakes.

After all politicians, of whatever persuasion, are famous for saying one thing when running for office and then another when faced with the reality of having been elected.

Plus they seldom take responsibility for mistakes, errors of judgement, failure for policies to deliver et yadda, yadda, yadda. It's always someone else's fault (or that of the global economy, which might well be partially true) and besides it's far easier to pass the buck.

Anyway, all that set to one side, none of the UMP's leading lights does especially well - at a national level - in the honesty perception poll.

Among those surveyed, Juppé came out top with 46 per cent, followed by Le Maire at 45 per cent and Fillon with 44 per cent.

Mind you, they were all streets ahead of Sarkozy who scored...wait for it...just 20 per cent.

Oh well, maybe when it comes to politics, "honesty" really is as much of a "lonely word" as US singer Billy Joel suggested in his 1979 international hit of the same name.

And besides, if the French population at large doesn't expect its politicians to be particularly honest (ooh - now that sounds like good material for yet another survey, surely) maybe this poll is nothing for the former president to worry about.

Fancy a little Billy Joel to finish off?

Jacques and Bernadette Chirac's political devide

It must be...er...interesting in the Chirac household at the moment.

The former French president, Jacques, and his wife, Bernadette, are apparently at odds over who to support in the primary to choose the candidate for the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) in the 2017 presidential elections.

Yep. It might seem a long way off, but hey ho, that hasn't stopped the political posturing.

Mind you, it's not exactly Jacques who's saying anything.

Rather it's the former first lady, Bernadette, who's taking potshots at one of the candidates already declared, Alain Juppé.

Bernadette Chirac (screenshot Europe 1 interview, January 2014)

Bernadette is a fervent supporter of Nicolas Sarkozy - both to head the UMP when the party chooses its leader in November and in the race to be its candidate for 2017, even though he hasn't officially declared his interest in running (although only a fool would vote against him doing so).

And the 81-year-old apparently has little or no time for Juppé - widely seen as Sarkozy's main challenger should he actually decide to seek the party's nomination.

"Juppé? What has Juppé got in common with Sarkozy?" she said when interviewed at the weekend.

"Alain Juppé is a very unwelcoming person. He doesn't win over people, friends and potential voters," she continued.

"You know, when important elections are approaching, you need someone with exceptional qualities. There are very few people around like that. I know, because my husband was president twice," she added.

Surely a clear indication that, as far as she's concerned, Juppé lacks the "exceptional qualities" which presumably Sarkozy has.

That might be Bernadette's assessment of Juppé's qualities - or lack thereof. But her husband apparently doesn't share her opinions.

Chirac didn't actually say as much himself.

Instead it was Juppé who revealed that the former president, under whom he served as prime minister from 1995-1997, was as loyal to him now as he had been in the past.

"Bernadette Chirac's remarks don't concern me at all," he said.

"The image of being seen as 'cold' is something that belongs to the past and there are stereotypes that always stay with you. Do you think the people of Bordeaux (the city of which he is mayor) consider me to be 'cold'?" he continued.

"I saw Jacques Chirac recently. We spent a great together and he confirmed his feeling that I was 'probably one of the best among us' (a reference to what Chirac had said of him back in the early 1990s)

And finishing with style and flourish, Juppé added, "You know, Jacques Chirac is loyal. He doesn't change his mind. And besides, I don't really want to get involved in matrimonial differences - whatever they might be."



As a timely aside, Juppé, who received an 18-month suspended sentence and a 10-year ban from running for political office (reduced to 14 months and one year respectively on appeal) in 2004 for abuse of public funds, was awarded the Press Club of France's prize for political humour 2014 on Monday for a comment which just about sums up French politics (and certainly Juppé's political career).

"In politics, it's never over. Look at me!"

Handbags at dawn - Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé

Ah. Politics is such a fickle profession.

"Friends" come and "friends" go - as befits the occasion.

And the odd feud along the way, seemingly forgetten when the two (or more) protagonists are reconciled is...well, frankly, par for the course.

Right now though, there's trouble apparently brewing (yet again) for the opposition centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) as certain figures jostle for position ahead of the party's planned primary (some time in 2016) to choose the candidate for the 2017 presidential election.

Yes, it might seem a fair distance away - and the battle for the leadership (quite a separate matter) hasn't yet taken place - but territory is already being marked in the very finest of...well, manners in which territory is traditionally marked in the animal kingdom.

Remember (yet again) that the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, threw his proverbial hat into the ring for the lUMP eadership campaign last week - pitting him against two other declared contenders, Bruno Le Maire and Hervé Mariton.

And although he hasn't actually said he'll seek the party's nomination for 2017, all the talk is that is really his ultimate goal.

Should he decide to enter that particular fray, he'll find himself up against at least two other declared candidates - both of whom served under him during his time as president: François Fillon, his prime minister during five years, and Alain Juppé, who served as foreign minister for the final 15 months of Sarkozy's "reign".

While both represent a challenge to Sarkozy, it's Juppé, with his wealth of political experience (including as the former leader of the UMP 2002-2004, prime minister under Jacques Chirac 1995-1997 and twice foreign minister as well as spells at defence and environment) and popularity who probably presents the biggest danger.

Alain Juppé (screenshot from "Le Grand rendez-vous" Europe 1, September 21, 2014)

Seemingly eager to bury the hatchet (but where), or perhaps better said, dissuade him from standing...or both...during his 45-minute televised interview last weekend, Sarkozy said of Juppé, "I met him when I was 20 years old. He has become a partner, a friend and a companion. He's someone I admire greatly."

Ah. That's nice, isn't it. Quite the proverbial olive branch.

Except in private, Sarkozy has apparently been saying something quite different according to the weekly satirical newspaper Le Canard Enchaîné.

It  reminds its readers that at the beginning of September (a couple of weeks after Juppé had said he would be standing in the 2016 primary - a selection process not at all to Sarkozy's liking), Sarkozy is rumoured to have said (in private of course) that he would "kill him" (politically speaking...Juppé's response on hearing the rumour was that Sarkozy "knew where to find him").

And according to the newspaper, Sarkozy has once again been firing salvoes in private, especially over Juppé's age and "moral" lecturing.

"Juppé will be 72 years old in 2017 and has an 18 month suspended prison sentence (for abuse of public funds), behind him," he's reported to have said.

"Do you think he scares me or that he's the right person to give me a lesson in morals?"

Juppé isn't exactly a political shrinking violet though. On the contrary, he's a seasoned scrapper, albeit it with rather more humour, perhaps more cutting and incisive and certainly more refined.

While Sarkozy was explaining his reasons on France 2 on Sunday evening for his political comeback, Juppé was unveiling on his blog the sort of programme he would be putting to party members during the primary.

And on Tuesday he told BFM TV that it was clear the battle had begun.

"I know that today the match has started," he said, poking fun at the idea that Sarkozy would try to change the name of the UMP to rid it of the less than positive image it has had over the past couple of years.

"You know, everything can be changed," he said.

"Rather than call it the UMP we can rename it PMU (also the name of the state-controlled betting system, Pari mutuel urbain). If that's the change, it won't exactly be fundamental."

The war of words has begun - and the campaign (should Sarkozy eventually declare) could well prove to be a rough one.

To be continued...


Juppé sort les armes contre Sarkozy by 20Minutes

The "compulsive comeback syndrome" or French politicians who refuse to bow out gracefully

La Nouvelle Édition on Canal + had an interesting segment during Monday's programme, the day following Nicolas Sarkozy's 45-minute interview on France 2 television explaining why he was making a return to frontline politics.

Now if you're reading this piece from outside of France, you can probably come up with a number of politicians who've run for (high) office in your country and, after having been beaten, have tried again at a later date.

Similarly you'll also probably be able list several who've been president or prime minister but after defeat have moved on gracefully to pastures new.

In France, while you might be hard-pressed to find examples of the latter, you don't need to look very far to find evidence of the former - particularly during the country's Fifth Republic, that means since 1958.

Defeat seems just to be another way of a politician turning round and saying, "It has perhaps been a blow to my ego, but I'll be back...count on it."

The most recent example, of course, is Nicolas Sarkozy.

Just a couple of years ago, when asked by Jean-Jacques Bourdin during an interview on BFM TV whether he would leave politics if defeated in the 2012 presidential election, his answer was unequivocal.

"Yes"

Take a look - and a listen.


Archive 2012 - Quand Sarkozy assurait qu'il... by BFMTV

But hey ho, as we all know, he has now changed his mind because...well, not only does he want to return...he also "doesn't have the choice".

In other words, it's something he's duty-bound to do.

And Sarkozy's case is far from being an isolated one among French politicians, as the segment on La Nouvelle Édition by journalist Elise Baudouin illustrated

In fact the seemingly peculiar French political "illness" even has a name (coined by Baudouin) -
the "compulsive comeback syndrome"

"Did you see Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush or Gordon Brown try again at a later date after their 'debacles'," asked Baudouin in her report.

"Germany's Gerhard Schröder, Spain's José María Aznar and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero?"

One notable absentee from the list was Italy's Silvio Berlusconi - perhaps proving the maxim the exception proves the rule (???).

In France though, it seems to have become common practice - successfully in the case of François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac both of whom achieved the highest office after suffering defeats.

Or aborted such as attempts of Valéry Giscard d'Estaing and Lionel Jospin.

And failed, as in the case of Ségolène Royal - although it probably won't have escaped your notice that she's currently a government minister.

Whatever the outcome, defeat doesn't seem to stop French politicians from seeking re-election at a later date.

La Nouvelle Edition du 22/09 - Petite histoire des retours en politique

The explanation - as far as the programme's political commentator Nicolas Domenach is concerned is two-fold.

Nicolas Domenach (screenshot La Nouvelle Édition, Canal +)

Not only is French politics a sort of "hard drug" for those bound up in it (that could probably also be said for politicians around the world), but the role of president is that almost of a "republican monarch" - the esteem with which a leader is held has been....well almost akin to that of royalty.

Not implausible by any means.

And on that premise, what's the betting that some very familiar faces (Alain Juppé, Marine Le Pen, François Bayrou and even perhaps Martine Aubry - all of whom have lost elections in the past) will, alongside Sarkozy, be among the front runners for the 2017 presidential race - or at least throw their hats into the ring at some point?

Poll shows "Sarko revival" gathers momentum - among UMP party supporters

We all know how much French politicians seem to love opinion polls.

Well, here's one that'll have the former president Nicolas Sarkozy grinning from ear to ear, at least in terms of the level of support he has within his "political family" the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP).

It's an exclusive (aren't they always?) survey carried out by Ifop on behalf of the national radio station Europe 1 and the daily newspaper Le Figaro to gauge the impact of Sarkozy's 45-minute TV interview with the channel's prime time weekend news anchor Laurent Delahousse on Sunday.

And the result?

A resounding win for Sarkozy, as far as, UMP supporters were concerned, in the party's leadership battle due to be put to a vote among members on November 29, with a second round scheduled a week later should no candidate secure a majority.

At the moment, that second round doesn't look as though it'll be necessary as the poll shows Sarkozy (at 75 per cent) to be way ahead of his rivals Bruno Le Maire (16 per cent) and Hervé Mariton (2 per cent) as far as UMP supporters.

(screenshot Ifop poll for Europe 1 and Le Figaro)

And the future looks bright for Sarkozy in terms of his popularity among UMP members should he decide to run for the party's nomination to be its presidential candidate in 2017.

The poll has Sarkozy at 65 per cent with his nearest rival Alain Juppé at 23 per cent and the "also-rans" François Fillon and Xavier Bertrand at seven and two per cent respectively.

Once again those figures are only a reflection of the Sarkozy's popularity among the party's supporters - and even then 28 per cent of them

But it's not all good news for Sarkozy.

The general electorate still considers Juppé (at 33 per cent) to be the party's best candidate in the 2017 presidential election ahead of Sarkozy (26 per cent).

And although UMP members will, of course, ultimately decide who'll run (and remember Sarkozy hasn't officially confirmed he'll seek the party's nomination) it'll be the French as a whole who decide the best man or woman for the job.

A couple of other factors to consider as well are other polls released recently showing that the far-right Front National leader, Marine Le Pen, would make it through to a second round run-off in 2017 - no matter who would be her opponents in the first round, along with another (carried out before Sunday's interview) showing that 60 per cent of the French "disapproved" of Sarkozy's comeback.

And let's not forget the judicial enquiries which could "continue to dog" the success of the so-called "Sarko revival".

One thing's for certain, more polls - many more of them - over the coming months will allow those "in the know" to interpret and analyse to their hearts' delight.

Anyway, for the moment,  for you number crunchers out there, the full Ifop poll results and the methodology can be found here.

Happy reading!

Oh, and because a healthy slice of satire never did any harm, here's Monday's edition of Les Guignols de l'info on Canal + with (among other things) its own particular take on that televised interview and Sarkozy's comeback.

Now that, you can really enjoy.

Les Guignols du 22/09 - L'interview de Nicolas Sarkozy

Back to the future - with Nicolas Sarkozy

The former French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, took to television on Sunday evening to win over the hearts of the nation and explain why he felt an obligation and "a duty" to run for the leadership of the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement).

Watching Sarkozy as he answered anchor Laurent Delahousse's questions, it was more than a little difficult not to be struck by the resemblance he seemed to bear to his puppet on the satirical show on Canal + "Le Guignols de l'info".

Laurent Delahousse and Nicolas Sarkozy (screenshot France 2 interview 21/09/2014)

There were all the familiar shoulder-heaving, head-bobbing, twitching mannerisms which make him so easy to caricature.

And they were accompanied with the unforgettable "iron fist in a velvet glove" (for want of a better idiom) verbal style with which, for example, he attacked François Hollande after saying he didn't want to "waste time criticising his successor".

"He (Hollande) has spent two years demolishing what we accomplished," he said.

"M. Hollande seems to want to think of me as a "bad" person. I simply don't think about him."

So that's the superficial impression. It was TV after all, and Sarkozy is a proven master of communications and image.

But what about the substance? What did Sarkozy actually say...that was any different to what he has said in the past? And what concrete measures did he present for transforming the party and of, course, the country?

Nicolas Sarkozy (screenshot France 2 television September 2014)

Well...there was the  use of the referendum as a political tool to let the people have their say.

"It's the key," he said.

Putting aside the relative merits or not of the idea, wasn't that part of his campaign pledge in 2007?

And the need for some changes to the Schengen agreement (which allows its signatories a borderless Europe)  - without outlining exactly what apart from admitting that "I should have said before that in its current state Schengen is not functioning as it should"  - a theme throughout his failed 2012 campaign.

Other than that, not very much, other than the broadest of brushstrokes about the need to bring people within his political family together, provide an alternative to the current government's policies and prevent the prospect of France becoming completely isolated.

Over 8.5 million people apparently tuned in for the 45-minute interview  - proof perhaps that Sarkozy leaves few indifferent.

And some - in particular his two declared adversaries for the leadership battle, Bruno Le Maire and Hervé Mariton - might have found it odd that Sarkozy was given so much air time to make his pitch as a candidate.

Only this is French politics where defeated candidates never seem to fade away gracefully after losing but reappear again and again and again.

And as much as Sarkozy might have wanted those viewing to believe that the interview was ostensibly about the UMP leadership battle, the real focus surely was and remains the 2017 presidential election campaign.

In case you missed it, here's the full interview.

Enjoy.

Sarko returns

The speculation is over.

Former french president, Nicolas Sarkozy has announced he's returning to politics and running for the leadership of the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP).

Nicolas Sarkozy (screenshot from Europe 1/TF1 interview, July 2014

In what has to be one of the worst kept secrets after months - no, make that years - of conjecture, Sarkozy took to social media - Facebook, what else - to deliver his rallying call.

"I am a candidate for the presidency of my political family," he wrote.

"I propose turning the party upside down to create within three months the conditions for a vast new movement that will address itself to all French people regardless of their political persuasion."

Ah. that familiar call of unity and appealing to the broadest possible electoral base.

Still, love him or hate him, French politics is about to get a whole lot more interesting and the chances are this is just the first step in his campaign to run in the French presidential election in 2017.

But wait.

Remember back during the 2012 election campaign when asked by Jean-Jacques Bourdin on BFM TV whether he would continue in politics should he lose?



Sarkozy categorically said "No" and that he would "find something else to do.

Ah well. How does that famous quote (often attributed to Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord, Napoleon's - how appropriate - chief diplomatic aide) go?

"Only fools never change their mind".

Or in political speak - don't believe a word I'm saying right now because sometime in the future I'll do and/or say the opposite.