And if the French were to vote in parliamentary elections today...?

Warning - this piece contains so many numbers, it could serious "do your head in"

A polls has been published in France today which, in and of itself, means very little because it's based on a false premise.

But (and you knew there would be one) it's enough to give the current government, the Socialist party (PS) and in fact the whole of the political Left, the heebie-jeebies.

If (conditional) there were a parliamentary election in France today (and the next one isn't due until June 2017) the Left, and in particular the PS, would suffer a humiliating (to say the least) defeat.

All right, so the poll appears in Le Figaro, a national daily not exactly known for it's love of the PS and whose chairman happens to be Serge Dassault, a member of the opposition centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) and a member of the Senate since 2004.

And was it was carried out by l'Institut CSA (conseil, sondage et analyse) part of the Bolloré group whose president and Chief executive officer, Vincent Bolloré, just happens to be a friend of the newly-elected leader the UMP - Nicolas Sarkozy.

But don't start reading too much into those "facts". They're just an aside as, after all, a poll is just a poll - isn't it?

It has to be both objective and representative.

So what does the Le Figaro's poll "indicate" - bearing in mind that the imaginary election is not going to happen today.

Well...

Using the current two-round majority system, the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) and the centrist Union des démocrates et indépendants (Union of democrats and independents, UDI) would win between 485 and 505 of the 577 seats in the national assembly.

"A level never obtained by the centre-right" points out Le Figaro which published the poll. "Better even than the 1993 parliamentary election results (when the two centre-right/centrist parties of the time, the Rassemblement pour la République and the Union pour la démocratie française, won 257 and 215 seats respectively)."

The far-right Front National, FN (currently with just two members of parliament) would see it numbers increase to anything from 14 to 24 seats.

And the Left - including the Socialist party, the Greens and the Front de Gauche?

Well they would have to be satisfied with between 56 and 66 seats.

The make up of the national assembly if an election were held today (screenshot "La Nouvelle Édition" - Canal +)

And the "debacle" for the PS would hardly be avoided (although it would be less humiliating) if a system of proportional representation were used.

UMP and UDI - between 208 and 248 seats.
The Left - (PS, Greens and Front de Gauche) - between 180 and 220 (hardly respectable...but)
FN - between 138 and 159 seats.

Draw your own conclusions as to how to interpret the figures and even the value of the (yet another) poll.

But a clearer picture will emerge next year as...guess what.

There will be elections...departmental on March 22 and 29 and regional...at some later date once the territorial reform (the proposal to reduce of the number of regions from 22 to 13 in metropolitan France) has finally been signed, sealed and delivered.

Nicolas Sarkozy scores poorly among French on perceived honesty ratings

Whoopee!

Yet another poll.

Yes, the country which seems to delight in publishing a legion of surveys on an almost frighteningly (well, it would be if you were really to take them seriously) basis has now explored how "honest" some of the leading lights in the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) are.

All right, to give the free daily Metronews and TF1's all-news channel LCI credit, it could well be argued that the poll, which they commissioned CLAI to carry out, has a deservedly newsworthy angle.

There's an UMP leadership contest scheduled for the end of November with former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, the favourite to beat Bruno Le Maire and Hervé Mariton, the other two declared candidates.

And of course Sarkozy, currently touring the country with his "one man show" (below is a BFM TV video report, if you're interested), is widely thought to be considering a run to be the party's candidate for the 2017 presidential election.

Should he, as many predict, eventually decide to enter the party's planned primary (some time in 2016) he'll find himself up against the likes of Alain Juppé and François Fillon.

Nicolas Sarkozy "One man show" (screenshot BFM TV)

So, a poll to measure how honest the French perceive UMP politicians (in this case) to be, would seem timely...if not exactly a good use of...time (and money that is).

Surely nobody - or at least, very few - would rate politicians high in the honesty stakes.

After all politicians, of whatever persuasion, are famous for saying one thing when running for office and then another when faced with the reality of having been elected.

Plus they seldom take responsibility for mistakes, errors of judgement, failure for policies to deliver et yadda, yadda, yadda. It's always someone else's fault (or that of the global economy, which might well be partially true) and besides it's far easier to pass the buck.

Anyway, all that set to one side, none of the UMP's leading lights does especially well - at a national level - in the honesty perception poll.

Among those surveyed, Juppé came out top with 46 per cent, followed by Le Maire at 45 per cent and Fillon with 44 per cent.

Mind you, they were all streets ahead of Sarkozy who scored...wait for it...just 20 per cent.

Oh well, maybe when it comes to politics, "honesty" really is as much of a "lonely word" as US singer Billy Joel suggested in his 1979 international hit of the same name.

And besides, if the French population at large doesn't expect its politicians to be particularly honest (ooh - now that sounds like good material for yet another survey, surely) maybe this poll is nothing for the former president to worry about.

Fancy a little Billy Joel to finish off?

And France's best-dressed male politician is...?

Oh come on. You know you're interested. After all isn't it the most compelling part of politics...the fluffy celebrity side of things?

Read on, and you'll find out (eventually) who the French think is their best-dressed male politician, which you have to admit makes a change from those endless polls ranking political figures by their popularity.

Actually that in itself seems to be something of a national pastime in France. At least the media would seem to have us believe it matters, with polls coming thick and fast on a monthly basis.

Mind you, it has been fairly quiet on that front recently - probably something to do with much of the country having been on holiday for the month of August.

For sure those polls have been published as frequently as ever, but they haven't really made the headlines lately apart from the odd mention that the former president, Jacques Chirac, is the nation's favourite political figure with a 76 per cent approval rating ahead of the ever-popular foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner (70 per cent) and his former underling, Rama Yade (67 per cent) who was junior minister for human rights until the position was scrapped in June's reshuffle and now finds herself "elevated" (heavy on the irony) to sport.

For his part the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has dropped a point to 47 per cent, but has nonetheless managed to climb a place in the overall listings from July to 27th place.

Anyway back to that "style" survey conducted for the monthly men's magazine Optimum by l’institut Isama and the results of which are prefaced with proof that clothes maketh the man.

"The image of the politicians depends first of all on their position, what they have to say and what they do," runs the introduction helpfully.

"But it's also based on indirect elements or factors that have little to to with politics such as the individual's appeal, way of expressing himself (yes we're talking just male politicians here) or what he wears. In other words 'style'."

There you go, confirmation if you will, that appearances do matter.

And the winner is - (drum roll please) - none other than Dominique de Villepin.

Does the name ring a bell? It should do. He was a foreign minister and then prime minister under Chirac and his is the name on everybody's lips here in France at the moment as he's one of the key players embroiled in the so-called "Clearstream affair".

In a nutshell, de Villepin is a defendant in a trial that has just got underway, and is charged with "plotting to discredit" Sarkozy when the two were ministers under Chirac.

It's a complicated case that has taken up more than a few column inches in newspapers and is pretty much the story coming out of France at the moment.

There's masses of stuff about it out on the Net and to go into detail about it here would rather spoil the flippant tone of this piece, so without further ado let's take a look at who else figures on the list behind the dashing de Villepin.

In second place is the former (Socialist) culture minister, Jack Lang with the name once again of Kouchner (another Socialist - of sorts) popping up in third. They're followed by the prime minister, François Fillon, the (Socialist) mayor of Paris, Bertrand Delanoë and a former (Socialist) finance minister and wannabe president, Dominique Strauss-Kahn who is currently head honcho at the International Monetary Fund.

With four of the first six coming from the ranks of the Socialist party, you could perhaps be forgiven for thinking that if looks really counted for anything supporters of the party would choose one of them as the next presidential candidate in 2012 - even though two of them (Lang and Kouchner) currently at 70 years of age might be considered a bit long in the tooth by then.

So with de Villepin getting the thumbs up for style, what of the plaintiff in that Clearstream affair (sorry to have to return to that) and the man who would least likely be described as his best friend...Sarkozy?

After all the 54-year-old, all action French president is a keep fit fan (we see pictures of him jogging regularly) and he's married to a former clothes horse.

In fact some commentators have remarked on how sharp his dress sense has become since he and Carla Bruni-Sarkozy tied the knot.

Well Sarkozy scrapes into the top 10 - even though he surely won't be pleased once more to find himself behind his prime minister - with a rating of 5,32 and Isama pointing out in its summary that his style appeals to all age groups apart from the 18-24-year-olds, who rank him just 32nd.

There's a message there somewhere isn't there?

So that's the men done and dusted.

We now await with bated breath a similar poll for France's female politicians.

Faltering fortunes

If a week is proverbially a long time in politics, then eight months must seem like an eternity to some.

And so it would seem for a majority of the French, who according to the latest opinion poll – yes, yet another one – give the thumbs down to the way their president, Nicolas Sarkozy, is going about his daily business.

For the first time since coming to office last May, Sarkozy’s popularity rating has dipped into the negative.

While 45 percent of those questioned are still happy with their president’s “Bling Bling” style leadership, 48 percent aren’t.

Confirmation, as if it were needed, that perhaps the French are getting more than just a little tired with Sarkozy’s shenanigans.

Top of the list of complaints – and there are many – is his failure to live up to his election promises, and in particular the undertaking to increase peoples’ purchasing power.

Certainly Sarkozy has been firing on all cylinders for quite some time now, and his energy is immense. But there has simply been no evidence of an increase in the standard of living, and the euro in peoples’ pockets is not stretching as far as they had been promised.

His defence has been that things take time, there’s no money in the state coffers to finance reform programmes and that people need to “work more to earn more”. The mantra does not seem to have won him too many friends among the general public, especially as the only financial concessions Sarkozy has made so far are tax breaks for the already well off.

Of course his constant media presence outside the political arena hasn’t helped matters much either and in particular the way his private life has made the headlines.

Divorce, a new girlfriend and rumours of marriage – all in the space of just three months – are perhaps proving just too testing for the French. They’re not used to seeing their presidents hang out their laundry, and even though there is undoubtedly a huge voyeuristic element (gossip boosts circulation and viewing figures) it just ain’t what they expect from their politicians and certainly not their head honcho.

Some in his party have claimed that the poor man has been “harassed” by a media, which has constantly reported every step of his private life. Clearly on current evidence, he has been a totally unwilling accomplice.

Meanwhile at a time when Sarkozy’s popularity is taking a dip, that of his seemingly long-suffering second in command, the prime minister François Fillon, is witnessing a resurgence.

Now Fillon might not exactly be the most charismatic politician ever to have made the big time – some might say he makes Britain’s Gordon Brown look like the life and soul of any party – but he is generally seen as trustworthy, cautious and dependable - in fact almost the complete opposite to the president.

And while he’s probably never going to hit the highs (or lows) of someone like Sarkozy in the popularity stakes, the latest figures have him fast catching up with his boss, with a 43 per cent approval rating.

Fillon’s self-effacing style may go down well with a public wearied by Sarkozy’s exhausting overexposure, but there is a certain false modesty in play by the prime minister.

When asked exactly what he thinks of what many perceive as the public excesses of his boss, he refuses to comment, maintaining that in his 30-year-long career in politics he has always been loathe to pass judgement on others’ private lives. A statement heartily repeated by most of his government’s ministers.

The problem for Fillon and of course the rest of the cabinet, is that they really are only secure in their jobs for as long as they remain in Sarkozy’s good books. He can hire, fire and tinker with, whenever he sees fit.

But as the latest polls shows even he will have to keep an eye on his ratings.

There’s a limit as to how prepared the French are willing to tolerate simple bad manners such as when Sarkozy was caught on camera writing a text massage during the welcoming ceremony of his state visit to Saudi Arabia earlier this week.

The president has made the local elections here in March a vote of confidence in himself, his government and his policies. He could be in for an unpleasant surprise.

Persiflage

The honeymoon is over. Let the honeymoon begin.

According to the weekend’s headlines here in France, the country’s love affair with its president, Nicolas Sarkozy, may be on the downturn, but his own affairs of the heart could see him about to trundle up the aisle once again.

Tumbling seven points in the latest opinion polls Sarkozy has dropped below the 50 per cent approval rating for the first time since he came to office in May last year.

While a majority of those questioned – 48 per cent - gave the president the thumbs up for his work so far, 45 per cent said they were dissatisfied.

No cause for immediate concern perhaps, but a notable dip from just a month ago when the balance was 55-38 and a whopping 17 per cent drop in approval ratings from the halcyon days of last July.

If anything is to be read into the latest figures – and plenty will be over the next couple of days – then on the professional front, December wasn’t really Sarkozy’s month.

He took an awful lot of flak for his handling of the controversial visit of the Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi, and came under fire for his inability to deliver on his major campaign promise to increase purchasing power – beyond repeating his stock answer “work more to earn more.”

And then of course there was the manipulated over-exposure of his personal life with the first public outing of Sarkozy and Carla Bruni in EuroDisney – of all places.

At a press conference this Tuesday he is likely to face some uncomfortably direct questioning on the (slow) pace of reform and especially where that increase in purchasing power is going to come from. Unemployment, pensions, labour relations and speculation on a ministerial reshuffle are also likely to be topics on which he will be grilled, especially as there are local elections due at the beginning of March.

But the burning question on everybody’s lips, and the issue in which the French are least interested apparently, even though it has been splashed across the media this weekend, is whether presidential wedding bells can be expected any time soon.

As yet, Sarkozy has shied away from making an “official” statement about his relationship with the former top model-turned-chanteuse. But after very public, private holidays in recent weeks, it’ll be hard for the president to avoid any mention of it – especially of he is asked.

And if the headline in the French national Sunday newspaper, “Le Journal du Dimanche” is anything to go by, a date has definitely been set for the pair to tie the knot….. apparently. “It’s February 8,” claims the newspaper. “Or most likely February 9,” it adds, wisely hedging its bets.

More speculation perhaps but it has been backed up by Bruni’s Italian mother, Marisa Borini, who told her country’s media a couple of weeks ago that Sarkozy had indeed already popped the question to her daughter.

One undeniable truth though in the romance has been its whirlwind nature, entirely in keeping with a president who has the habit of firing on all fronts simultaneously. Since their Disney appearance the sweethearts have been virtually inseparable, following up a Christmas break in Egypt with a quick trip to Jordan last week.

Bruni as First Lady at the Elysée palace would certainly help the president out in terms of protocol. State visits to Morocco and the United States saw him having to drag long one of his women ministers (usually Rachida Dati) to official functions.

And even combining political duties during his primarily private Yuletide trip to Egypt presented some tricky etiquette manoeuvring. As Madame Sarkozy (part III) Bruni would also have an official role – one that Cecilia (part II) was unwilling to assume.

Oh yes – and here’s a Twilight Zone-type twist of coincidence. Or is it?

Open talk of an impending Sarkozy-Bruni marriage has ratcheted up a gear since the sun-glassed couple were photographed each holding a hand of the “singer’s” young son, Aurélian, as they strolled happily along the streets of Petra, Jordan.

Exactly the same destination to which Cecilia, very publicly fled for a liaison with her amour, French advertising hotshot, Richard Attias, back in May 2005 – an act which marked the beginning of the end for her and Nicolas.

Mere coincidence?

“Deedle, deedle, deedle, deedle.”

Persiflage