And if the French were to vote in parliamentary elections today...?

Warning - this piece contains so many numbers, it could serious "do your head in"

A polls has been published in France today which, in and of itself, means very little because it's based on a false premise.

But (and you knew there would be one) it's enough to give the current government, the Socialist party (PS) and in fact the whole of the political Left, the heebie-jeebies.

If (conditional) there were a parliamentary election in France today (and the next one isn't due until June 2017) the Left, and in particular the PS, would suffer a humiliating (to say the least) defeat.

All right, so the poll appears in Le Figaro, a national daily not exactly known for it's love of the PS and whose chairman happens to be Serge Dassault, a member of the opposition centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) and a member of the Senate since 2004.

And was it was carried out by l'Institut CSA (conseil, sondage et analyse) part of the Bolloré group whose president and Chief executive officer, Vincent Bolloré, just happens to be a friend of the newly-elected leader the UMP - Nicolas Sarkozy.

But don't start reading too much into those "facts". They're just an aside as, after all, a poll is just a poll - isn't it?

It has to be both objective and representative.

So what does the Le Figaro's poll "indicate" - bearing in mind that the imaginary election is not going to happen today.

Well...

Using the current two-round majority system, the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) and the centrist Union des démocrates et indépendants (Union of democrats and independents, UDI) would win between 485 and 505 of the 577 seats in the national assembly.

"A level never obtained by the centre-right" points out Le Figaro which published the poll. "Better even than the 1993 parliamentary election results (when the two centre-right/centrist parties of the time, the Rassemblement pour la République and the Union pour la démocratie française, won 257 and 215 seats respectively)."

The far-right Front National, FN (currently with just two members of parliament) would see it numbers increase to anything from 14 to 24 seats.

And the Left - including the Socialist party, the Greens and the Front de Gauche?

Well they would have to be satisfied with between 56 and 66 seats.

The make up of the national assembly if an election were held today (screenshot "La Nouvelle Édition" - Canal +)

And the "debacle" for the PS would hardly be avoided (although it would be less humiliating) if a system of proportional representation were used.

UMP and UDI - between 208 and 248 seats.
The Left - (PS, Greens and Front de Gauche) - between 180 and 220 (hardly respectable...but)
FN - between 138 and 159 seats.

Draw your own conclusions as to how to interpret the figures and even the value of the (yet another) poll.

But a clearer picture will emerge next year as...guess what.

There will be elections...departmental on March 22 and 29 and regional...at some later date once the territorial reform (the proposal to reduce of the number of regions from 22 to 13 in metropolitan France) has finally been signed, sealed and delivered.

Hervé Morin's historic error - a trip back in time

Fancy a spot of time travel? Then French presidential candidate Hervé Morin seems more than willing to oblige.

Hervé Morin (screenshot from announcement of candidature video)

Morin isn't making life easy for himself.

His campaign launch squeaked into gear last November much to the annoyance of the ruling centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP) which has been urging the leader of the smaller centre-right Nouveau Centre (NC) to put aside any stately ambitions he might have and throw his weight his behind the current president Nicolas Sarkozy.

Morin, who served as Sarkozy's - sorry that should of course read prime minister François Fillon as he's supposed to be the head of the government - defence minister from May 2007 until November 2010, was having none of it though and has so far doggedly stuck to his proverbial guns (ooh a bit of a pun there).

Not that it seems to be doing him much good as his poll ratings rarely climb above one (that really need to be spellt out) percent, as impersonator Nicolas Canteloup is of so fond of reminding listeners to his radio slot in the mornings on Europe 1 and viewers to his TV sketch in the evenings.

Then there's the case of François Bayrou - who used to be a buddy of Morin when both were members of the (not quite, but to all intents and purposes now defunct or at least on paper) centre-right Union pour la Démocratie Française (UDF).

Are you following? This is French politics where allegiances are built on the shiftiest of sands.

Morin supported Bayrou when the latter became the so-called Third Man in the 2007 presidential race, but the two men fell out shortly afterwards with Morin joining the government and Bayrou setting up a new centre party Mouvement démocrate or MoDem.

In stark contrast to Morin, Bayrou's announcement of his candidature in December was judged by most political pundits as a success in terms of pushing him up the polls and into double figures. Bayrou was on a roll and for some still is, faring better than he did at the same stage last time around.

Not content with being an also also-ran (will he last the course and is anyone really bothered?) Morin has now made a complete fool of himself and provided everyone with a classic bit of political nonsense.

It happened at a meeting last weekend in the southern French city of Nice with Morin coming over all emotional as he recalled the Allied landings on the Normandy coast in 1944.

Only during his speech the 50-year-old (important bit of information that) managed an HG Wells kind of moment as he literally travelled back in time to give the impression that he had been present when the Allies landed.

"You, some among you, with grey hair, witnessed the storming of the Provence beach," he said.

"I saw the landing of allied troops in Normandy," he continued without hesitating at the absurdity of his statement.

Morin was born in 1961.



Journalists, humorists and of course Internauts were quick to pick up on the mistake and Twitter was abuzz with moments from the past at which Morin could claim to have been impossibly present.

Cruel.

But at least Morin had the guts to face up to his mistake (did he have any other choice?) by Tweeting his own "Congratulations on your humour" and saying that "The French were full of creativity."