“Old” politics to dominate TV and radio airtime in French general election campaign

It’s election time - again - in France.

Just a few weeks after the two rounds to choose the country’s president (done and dusted - Emmanuel Macron, in case you weren’t paying attention), the French totter off to the polls again.

Not once, but twice (very French) in the space of eight days…June 11 and (if there’s no 50 per cent plus majority in a constituency) June 18.

This time around it’ll be to elect a new lower chamber, the Assemblée nationale (national assembly), with Macron’s (rebranded party) La République en marche (LREM) favourites, among the pollsters, to assure him and his newly-appointed government a majority.

Assemblée nationale (screenshot)

But with campaigning for the 577 seats underway, there’s something of an anomaly in the allocation of time for (don’t yawn) party political broadcasts.

The Conseil supérieur de l'audiovisuel, or CSA, is the body that regulates TV and radio in France and gets to decide how much airtime each particular party is allowed.

And that decision (made even more complicated in this explanation…in French) is based primarily on the size of each party or group’s representation in the current national assembly.

So, even though the second round of the presidential election was fought out between Macron and the far right Front National’s (FN) candidate, Marine Le Pen, it’s the two main parties in the “old” parliament who stand to gain most time for their campaign clips.

The Socialist party (at around six per cent in the polls) will have a full two-hours worth of airtime.

Meanwhile Les Républicans (19 per cent in the latest surveys) one hour and 44 minutes. That’ll be bolstered somewhat by their centre-right “partners”  Union des démocrates et indépendants (Union of Democrats and Independents, UDI) 22 minutes.

Politics as usual then with, if you so choose to interpret the opinion polls, most of the electorate more concerned to hear what those parties that won’t have very much airtime have to say.

Just look at the figures…or rather the disparity.

The centrist LREM - leading the polls with 32 per cent will get 12 minutes.

The far right FN - at around 19 per cent in the polls will also get 12 minutes.

And the far left La France insoumise - currently at 15 per cent…12 minutes.

French presidential election - leading candidates take to stage for marathon TV debate

So the first live TV broadcast presidential debate is over.

Only the “Big Five” or leading candidates were invited by TF1/LCI to take part; those ranking at more than 10 per cent in the opinion polls.

The leading candidates
screenshot

It was  a move that prompted Nicolas Dupont-Aignan - one of the “little candidates” (there are six of them - yes a grand total of 11 aiming for the highest office in the Land) to stomp off in a huff during a television interview during a news broadcast over the weekend.

So how did the candidates perform?

Well, as the BBC’s Hugh Schofield rightly points out, trying to predict the winner of any presidential debate is pretty much “a mug’s game”.

And although Monday night’s three-hour plus marathon might have been a first in a presidential campaign here in France (normally the debating is left to the final two before the second round) it’s probably anyone’s guess as to who actually came across as the winner.

Over nine million viewers tuned in to watch and although the “conventional wisdom” of political commentators (those who “know” best) and the independent polls taken immediately afterwards judged centrist Emmanuel Macron as the “most convincing”, it would be unwise to read too much into that.

Ultimately each candidate’s camp was putting its own political spin on the evening with each claiming to have been “satisfied”, “happy” and “confident”. Nothing new there then.

For the record though, here’s a personal view as to how they came across.

Macron probably had the most to lose and was on the receiving end of several attacks. After a ponderous start, though he held his own and refrained from falling into the traps laid down for him.

Still, he needs to find a “defining” policy which sticks in the electorate’s mind.

At the moment he appears to be caught in the Centre’s dilemma of wanting to appeal to all sides.

The far-right Front National’s Marine Le Pen was as bellicose as ever - only to be expected - and that won’t have done her any harm…among her own supporters.

But the shrugged dismissal of any criticism and an inability to come up with a response as to why she deems herself above the judiciary (only fleetingly addressed) and fa ailure to appeal outside of her own electorate will not have made her chances of widening her appeal.

Les Républicain’s François Fillon - was statesmanlike and serious (almost to the point of boring) but astonishingly reserved and restrained - almost as though he were, at times, absent. He too suffers from a difficulty of reaching out beyond his own “fans” - and oh yes, the foreign media should stop defining his candidacy as centre-right. It’s rightwing.

Benoît Hamon - the Socialist party’s candidate - was widely seen as having failed to shine. Sure, he was articulate and coherent but sometimes (too often in fact) saw his thoughts and ideas overshadowed by those of the man whose views most closely match his own - the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Make no mistake, Mélenchon (what was it with those very pink lips?)  was and remains an orator head and shoulders above the rest, able to inject more than a modicum of cutting wit at just the right moment.

But he’s also more of a troublemaker (especially for the Socialist party) than a serious candidate to be president.

The second debate in a fortnight’s (April 4) on BFM TV will feature all 11 candidate when the likes of Dupont-Aignan, Jacques Cheminade and François Asselineau will get their chance to ensure that the electorate is even more confused afterwards than it was before with polls still showing that around 40 per cent don’t know how they’ll vote.

French presidential election 2017 - The "Big Five" and a perplexed electorate

The French presidential election is turning out to be one of the most confusing and unpredictable of recent times.

And it’s really not surprising that,  according to many of the (innumerable) polls, there are a sizeable number of French who are still unsure as to how they will vote - at least in the first round April 23.

Of course, many of the leading candidates have their hard core supporters - but none of them is guaranteed a place in the second-round head-to-head.

What follows is not a (huge sigh of relief) poll and, admittedly, far from being scientific. It’s a recap of the five main contenders (in reality there are only three) to be this country’s next president. The comments are based on observations - something more than just a chat to the taxi driver on the way from the airport after being parachuted in to a country - from someone who lives among the French and hears their fears, confusion as to what might or might not happen in this year’s presidential elections.

The "Big Five" French presidential hopefuls: Marine Le Pen, François Fillon, Emmanuel Macron, Benoît Hamon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (collage of YouTube screenshots)

Perhaps the best-placed (again according to those omnipresent polls) to make it through the May 7 run-off is the far-right Front National’s (FN) Marine Le Pen.

Along with her faithful lieutenants (such as Florian Philippot), Le Pen has made a pretty good job of what the media calls “dédiabolisation” or “de-demonising” the party in terms of its image: giving it a veneer  of respectability, positioning itself as an anti-system alternative to “politics as usual” and broadening its electoral appeal.

In essence though, for all its nationalist and populist bluster about how it would do things differently if in power, the party would still be at the mercy of a political and institutional system (and all its inherent flaws and self—serving perks).  The FN also remains fiercely anti-immigration (a sugar-coated way of saying xenophobic and anti-Islam) implausible on economic policy and typically protectionist - although given recent global events such as Brexit and The Donald’s election in the United States, that might well be seen as an attribute.

The party is also a peculiarly “family business”.  Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie, was its founder, her partner, Louis Aliot, is one of its vice presidents and her niece, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, one of its two members in the National Assembly.

The right wing (although the party still insists on portraying itself as representing the Right/Centre-right) Les Républicains’ François Fillon was for many months the political pundits favourite to face Le Pen in the second round.

His overwhelming victory in the party’s November 2016’s primary provided him with a virtual “boulevard” to the Elysée: well that was the proverbial common wisdom. He would make it through to the second round and, even though he might have a hard time convincing those who had voted for leftwing parties in the first round, there was no way they would allow a Le Pen victory. In much the same way as Jacques Chirac had sealed success against Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002, so Fillon would be assured of doing (but less emphatically) in 2017.

But then it all well pear-shaped. The man who had always taken the moral high ground and presented himself as almost “whiter than white” found himself embroiled in “the Penelope gate” fiasco, suspicions that his Welsh-born wife and two of his children had earned hundreds of thousands of euros for “fake jobs” as his parliamentary assistants.

“If a presidential candidate is indicted - no matter for what reason - he (or she) cannot possibly maintain the trust of the electorate and must withdraw from the race” of his earlier campaigning became “I have become the victim of a media witch hunt and “I’m going to see this out to the very end”. A neat reversal of what he had said just months earlier. So much for consistency and integrity in French politics.

And then there’s Emmanuel Macron. His very strengths could also prove to be his weakness. He’s young (38) - perhaps too young for many to have that much needed gravitas of a Statesman. He not politically bound, even though he served as advisor and economics minister under the current president François Hollande, a man he is accused as having “stabbed in the back”. He has never stood for elected office before and his programme - yes he has one at last - for the longest time seemed vague: exciting but confusing - that mix of Centrist ideas that lack ideology (and dogma) and try to appeal to everyone and anyone (apart from the extremes).

Criticised by the Right as representing “Hollande redux” - and few French want a repeat performance of the last five years - and by the Left as not being Socialist enough, Macron has nevertheless managed to garner support from across the political spectrum with his movement “En marche” (On the move) - yes only the most confident (or arrogant) of people could give his political movement his own initials.

The media darling and golden boy of French politics has surprised many. His movement has gathered momentum but he lacks the structure of a political machine behind him. Sure, he could beat Le Pen if he makes it through the second round, but the transitory nature of his support - that so-called Centre - could also be his undoing.

So, what is the Socialist party up to? Well, it’s not so much fighting a presidential race as defining its own future as a party. In its primary it chose Benoît Hamon as the candidate. For many he’s “too Socialist”, too Utopian, offering the French what they want (to hear): no belt-tightening economic reforms (but no real guaranteed progress either). In fact more of the same as the country entrenches itself deeper in the beliefs of the past.

And Hamon is not drawing in the big crowds as he had hoped. The former rebel of yesteryear who resigned as Hollande’s education minister after just a few months in the job (what staying power) now finds himself confronted with his own rebels - hard-hitting party bigwigs who feel he is leading the lot of them into political oblivion and are (more than) tempted to throw their weight behind Macron. Result? Hamon has had to blow hot and cold on some of his core ideas such as universal suffrage.

Finally among those that really matter (and apologies for any other candidates who might obtain the necessary signatures to enable them to stand) there’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

If only this former Socialist party member could pull his act together and get over himself to join forces with Hamon, the Left might actually have some say in determining the outcome of the 2017 presidential elections.

But no, the angry old bloke of French politics (who has admittedly calmed down a fair deal since his campaign managers discovered social media) has an ideological path that doesn’t sit well with many inside the Socialist party. Oh yes - and an ego.

You see, and this is actually unusual in French politics - or any politics come to that, Mélanchon actually has (don’t say this too loud) principles. Employment rights, welfare programmes and a real redistribution of wealth to tackle existing socioeconomic inequalities actually mean something to him. And oh yes, he’s very anti-EU.

No wonder the French are perplexed. There’s no clear “leader” to guide the country over the next five years. Le Pen might well score highly in the first round but there’s still (hopefully) - at least on the Left - enough French who would do the “right thing” and vote tactically to keep her from winning the run-off.

Should she face Macron, it would be easier for those - Left and Right of the political spectrum - to swallow their pride and help the young pretender into office…no matter what their qualms might be about his leadership qualities.

But Fillon versus Le Pen casts quite a different picture. Distasteful Right against even more distasteful Far Right…and some might just be tempted to let the latter win simply by abstaining.

And that most unlikely combination of Macron against Fillon…heck, that’s just introducing another unfathomable element into the equation.

French journalist Vanessa Burggraf gives Philippe Poutou a lesson on how to humiliate a presidential candidate…without trying too hard

Media bashing has, in the wake of The Donald’s tediously repetitive “fake news” and “alternative facts” diatribe, become something of a recurring theme in the French presidential election.

Some supporters of the centre-right (although there’s not too much “centre” about him) candidate François Fillon, have been only too keen to lay the blame for the so-called Penelopegate affair (charges that Fillon had employed his wife, Penelope,  as a parliamentary assistant for the modest sum of €900,000 for work that was perhaps never done) at the proverbial door of journalists. The controversy has highlighted the shameful (but, it has to be said, not illegal in France) practice of disabusing tax-payers’ money and prompted the judiciary to get involved.

And the far-right’s Marine Le Pen…well, she’s more in the mould of The Donald in launching regular barbs concerning biased reporting or insufficient media coverage for the Front National while at the same time popping up whenever invited on prime time news to polish and preen her electoral image.

Journalists in cahoots with the political classes? Well, it makes for good fodder and it doesn’t matter whether it’s true (or fake or even an alternative fact). Most pundits would agree that the French are generally pretty cheesed off with their elected (national) representatives as a whole (and who can blame them?)

Vanessa Burggraf (screenshot "On n'es pas couché")

And an event on Saturday evening, will surely for many, only “add grist to the mill” (love a good cliché) that journalists and politicians are in their own little Parisian bubble - far away from the concerns of the general electorate.

It happened during a segment of Laurent Ruquier’s weekly talk show on France 2, “On n'est pas couché”.

The invited political guest was one of the so-called “minor candidates” in a field that currently boasts a total of 49  (although not all of them are expected to be able to gather the required signatures to be able to stand) Philippe Poutou from the far-left Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste.

Philippe Poutou (screenshot "On n'est pas couché")

One of Rouquier’s regular interviewers, Vanessa Burggraf, proved her full journalistic credentials in posing a question about the role of company bosses in preventing redundancies but somehow never managed to wrap her lips around what she really wanted to ask, especially after she was interrupted by the show’s host.

There then followed over two minutes of buffoonery from Burggraff, Ruquier and others as Poutou looked on, bemused and evidently uncomfortable. After all, his party - and it doesn’t matter what you think about its policies - is one the declares itself to “look after the little guy”.

Complete humiliation for Poutou, totally shameful on the part of Burgraff and Ruquier and simply unnecessary.

After all, the recorded segment could simply have been edited. But it wasn’t.

Alain Juppé calls on UMP supporters to vote against Front National in Doubs by-election

No, not the most thrilling or exciting of headlines at face value.

But rather telling on a number of levels about the state of the opposition Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP).

First some background.

Last weekend saw the first round in voting in a by-election in the département of Doubs in eastern France.

It was to contest the seat made available by the forced resignation of the former finance minister, Pierre Moscovici who has since gone on to a cushy number at the higher European Commission level.

A "safe" Socialist party seat in theory.

But, as we all know, the governing Socialist party (PS) isn't exactly "flavour of the month" and the French president, François Hollande...well, although his popularity ratings increased recently after his handling of the Paris attacks in January) the road to a possible second term in 2017 remains a difficult one.

Add to that the disarray that still exists within the UMP and the far-right Front National's (FN) leader, Marine Le Pen's, strategy of combining disaffection with the two major parties with her own populist appeal, and it wasn't suprising that the FN's candidate, Sophie Montel, topped last Sunday's first round of voting in the by-election.

What was unexpected though - certainly for the UMP - was that its candidate, Charles Demouge, only finished third behind Montel and a couple of points adrift of the Socialst party's Frédéric Barbier.

UMP eliminated and Montel to face Barbier in a second round run-off.

And that has put the UMP in something of a quandary - although it shouldn't really.

Its recently-elected leader (a certain Nicolas Sarkozy - you'll surely have heard of him) had promised "unity" in an attempt to resolve party divisions of recent years.

But his slow reaction to the first round vote in Doubs, coupled with some of the party's leading members clearly stating the very opposite of what he is most likely to propose, has once against highlighted the UMP's discord.

The party's number two, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, appeared on BFM TV on Monday morning to give her reaction to the Doubs ballot and how would recommend UMP supporters cast their votes in the second round.

"I would choose to vote for the candidate that opposed the Front National," she said, admitting that it was probably a minority position within the UMP but one she defended nonetheless.

"The Socialist party leaves the country 'desperate'," she said. "But the Front National would disfigure France."



And joining her - even though he had maintained before the first round that he wouldn't comment on the outcome, was Alain Juppé.

Writing on his blog, Juppé clearly called for UMP supporters to cast their vote in the second round to the Socialist party's candidate to "block" the FN.

"Our main political rival now is the FN.," he wrote.

"Whether it can reach power is no longer a hypothetical question and in my opinion this would be a catastrophe for our country.”

Actually his words were much more powerful that that - you can read the full text here.

Alain Juppé (screenshot Europe 1 interview)

Juppé, of course, is a declared candidate in the UMP's primary to determine its 2017 presidential candidate.

A likely opponent and his main one - if you believe political pundits - is expected to be Sarkozy who so far seems to be in favour of the "neither, nor" policy of refusing to endorse any of the two remaining candidates and instead allow (UMP) voters to decide for themselves.

Yes - the courage of convictions and political principles is astounding.

And he's taking plenty of time to come up with a grand design which might well be ignored by those (few) who bother to vote anyway.

Montel might have officially come top in the first round of voting but the big winner was the 60 per cent abstention rate.

Closer magazine "outs" Front National's Florian Philippot

So a prominent member of the far-right Front National (FN), Florian Philippot, is apparently  gay.

Florian Philippot (screenshot i>Télé interview November 2014)

It's not exactly a secret, although not a story with which the media the rest of the French media has been prepared to run.

Until, that is, the weekly celebrity news and gossip magazine, Closer, decided "to break the silence" by publishing photographs in its latest edition of Philippot and his partner, on a break in Vienna.

Yes, Closer - that bastion of first-rate journalism whose credo seems to be that "scandal and sauciness" are newsworthy and has made its mark by publishing unauthorised long lens photographs, is proving true to its reputation.

Remember back in 2006 those photos of Ségolène Royal clad only in a bikini on a beach?

Or in 2012  the shots of the Duchess of Cambridge, topless while on a private holiday in the south of France?

And more recently the French president, François Hollande, snapped on a scooter as he made his way to a late night liaison with actress Julie Gayet?

Those were all "stories", complete with photographs published by Closer.

The magazine's latest "target", in what it presumably once again hopes will help boost sales, has been the subject of "rumour" for quite a while.

In fact a "gay lobby" within the FN was was suggested by the far-right weekly newspaper Minute in January 2013 when it claimed on its front cover that "le lobby gay s'introduit partout" - the media, all political parties and even the FN.

At the time, Philippot accused the newspaper of "stigmatising homosexuals and spreading rumours".

Such tittle tattle certainly seemed to put the party's leadership at odds with its declared position at the time of being against gay marriage as the bill to make same-sex marriage legal made its way through parliament with accompanying demonstrations of those opposed to the government's proposals.

The party's  leader, Marine Le Pen, said she was against the reform, but left it open to individual members to decide whether they would join the demonstrations.

So it's perhaps not a surprise that Le Pen "defended" Philippot when the news that Closer had outed him.

"This is a very serious violation of individual freedoms.," she told Europe 1 radio.

"This type of behaviour is unacceptable for Florian Philippot just as much as it was for François Hollande.  Private life is sacred."

Le Pen's reaction has been mirrored by other politicians  across the political spectrum and Tweets (what else) of outrage that what was essentially a private matter should, as far as Closer is concerned, be of public interest.

Proof that the real "scandal" is not that Philippot is gay - that's neither relevant to his political ideas nor particularly interesting.

Rather that a magazine such as Closer should be allowed to continue to "sell" based on publication of unauthorised photos.

Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé - the battle of the opinion polls

Another day, another poll - and one involving the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy...of course.

Well it is France after all.

Yes, there are other things happening in France - and not just in the world of political surveys.

Sarkozy, for example, is busy "pleasing all" (or trying to)  and attempting to unite the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) as he puts together a team resembling a shadow cabinet (divisions included) since winning, in less convincing fashion than he had probably anticipated, the battle for the leadership of his party last weekend.

But the poll looks to the future (er...don't they always, in so far as they're asking speculative questions?) and in particular the expected (political) handbags at dawn "combat" to become the UMP's candidate for the 2017 presidential campaign.

Anyway the latest poll, carried out - just before the UMP leadership election - by YouGov on behalf of the all-news channels i>Télé and Le Huffington Post.

It's essentially to show in order of popularity, how French politicians (or at least their images) rate with the public - "about which of these - answer as many times as you wish - do have a positive opinion?"

And the outcome is that the big winners in the past month (the so-called "Tops"), in terms of how they're perceived by the French electorate at large are Bruno Le Maire and the man who could well push Sarkozy all the way in the expected primary to be the UMP's next presidential candidate, Alain Juppé.

Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé at a meeting in Bordeaux, November 2014 (screenshot AFP report)

The tables aren't exactly easy to read (when are these things ever - go to this link and open the pdf file) but the Huff Post neatly sums up the survery's findings with Juppé and Le Maire both on the upswing (their "Tops" and Sarkozy losing a few points 'and appearing among the "Flops").

Oh yes...and look at who's at number two on the "positive" list - Marine Le Pen.

Just for a bit of fun, take a look also at the second table which shows those politicians who most engender a negative image (the Flops).

Right up there towards the top (just after Jean-Marie Le Pen and ahead of Jean-François Copé and Marine Le Pen) is Sarkozy - surely adding to the general feeling that he is able to unite and divide opinion (a little like Marine Le Pen) at the same time but one thing's for certain...he doesn't leave anyone indifferent.

Oh yes...and there's a slight increase in the popularity of the current president, François Hollande, and the prime minister, Manuel Valls. But not enough to be of any real significance.

They really need a better PR team - or perhaps policies that actually work...whoops.

Poll shows "Sarko revival" gathers momentum - among UMP party supporters

We all know how much French politicians seem to love opinion polls.

Well, here's one that'll have the former president Nicolas Sarkozy grinning from ear to ear, at least in terms of the level of support he has within his "political family" the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP).

It's an exclusive (aren't they always?) survey carried out by Ifop on behalf of the national radio station Europe 1 and the daily newspaper Le Figaro to gauge the impact of Sarkozy's 45-minute TV interview with the channel's prime time weekend news anchor Laurent Delahousse on Sunday.

And the result?

A resounding win for Sarkozy, as far as, UMP supporters were concerned, in the party's leadership battle due to be put to a vote among members on November 29, with a second round scheduled a week later should no candidate secure a majority.

At the moment, that second round doesn't look as though it'll be necessary as the poll shows Sarkozy (at 75 per cent) to be way ahead of his rivals Bruno Le Maire (16 per cent) and Hervé Mariton (2 per cent) as far as UMP supporters.

(screenshot Ifop poll for Europe 1 and Le Figaro)

And the future looks bright for Sarkozy in terms of his popularity among UMP members should he decide to run for the party's nomination to be its presidential candidate in 2017.

The poll has Sarkozy at 65 per cent with his nearest rival Alain Juppé at 23 per cent and the "also-rans" François Fillon and Xavier Bertrand at seven and two per cent respectively.

Once again those figures are only a reflection of the Sarkozy's popularity among the party's supporters - and even then 28 per cent of them

But it's not all good news for Sarkozy.

The general electorate still considers Juppé (at 33 per cent) to be the party's best candidate in the 2017 presidential election ahead of Sarkozy (26 per cent).

And although UMP members will, of course, ultimately decide who'll run (and remember Sarkozy hasn't officially confirmed he'll seek the party's nomination) it'll be the French as a whole who decide the best man or woman for the job.

A couple of other factors to consider as well are other polls released recently showing that the far-right Front National leader, Marine Le Pen, would make it through to a second round run-off in 2017 - no matter who would be her opponents in the first round, along with another (carried out before Sunday's interview) showing that 60 per cent of the French "disapproved" of Sarkozy's comeback.

And let's not forget the judicial enquiries which could "continue to dog" the success of the so-called "Sarko revival".

One thing's for certain, more polls - many more of them - over the coming months will allow those "in the know" to interpret and analyse to their hearts' delight.

Anyway, for the moment,  for you number crunchers out there, the full Ifop poll results and the methodology can be found here.

Happy reading!

Oh, and because a healthy slice of satire never did any harm, here's Monday's edition of Les Guignols de l'info on Canal + with (among other things) its own particular take on that televised interview and Sarkozy's comeback.

Now that, you can really enjoy.

Les Guignols du 22/09 - L'interview de Nicolas Sarkozy

Do polls "predicting" François Hollande defeat in first round 2017 French presidential elections make any sense?

Ah political polls. Don't you just love 'em?

The frequency with which they're commissioned and published in France would have you believe the French do...well at least the country's media does when the news schedule is slack or journalists feel like a good old job of "professional" political speculation.

The latest "nonsense" poll to be published is one carried out by OpinionWay for Le Figaro and LCI telling us that if the 2017 presidential election were to take place today (well, you know how these things work) François Hollande would not make it past the first round.

He would only win 18 per cent of the vote in the first round, trailing both the far-right Front National (FN) leader Marine Le Pen (25 per cent) and the (presumed) candidate for the centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP) Nicolas Sarkozy (29 per cent).

In other words the presidential second round in 2017 would be between Le Pen and Sarkozy.

(screenshot OpinionWay poll of voting intentions)

"Allô ! Non mais allô, quoi," to quote a great modern day French thinker.

What's this all about.

Seriously - forecasting results three years hence, based on a poll taken today is...well, misleading to say the least.

Of course it's probably one of the drawbacks of the "quinquennat" or the five-year presidential mandate passed by Jacques Chirac in 2000 and first used in 2002 to replace the previous seven-year term in office.

No sooner has a president been elected in France, than attention seems to focus on what might or could happen five years down the line.

Of course Hollande is unpopular at the moment. We know that because...well the polls keep telling us and the media delights in repeating it.

But predicting that Hollande might not even make it past the first round in 2017 when he's not even halfway through his term in office is...well surely complete and utter nonsense.

In fact it's a non story and one of pure fiction.

Sure it feeds into the widely-held (according to those very same opinion polls) belief that Hollande is incompetent, lacks clear vision and was the major reason for his Socialist party's defeat in last month's local elections,

But in and of itself, the survey says nothing about the likely outcome in 2017. Rather it's just a snapshot of current opinion and the image those polled have of Hollande.

After all, if a week is proverbially "a long time in politics", what the heck does that make three years?

Not convinced? Then just take a look at what a poll, taken at a similar stage during Sarkozy's term in office, predicted for the first round of the 2012 election - two years before the Dominique Strauss-Kahn affair hit the headlines.

Sarkozy followed by Martine Aubry and François Bayrou.



(screenshot La Nouvelle Edition, Canal +)



The actual result (just in case you needed a reminder) Hollande 28.63 per cent, Sarkozy 27.18 per cent and Le Pen 17.90 per cent.

Human rights group given the heave-ho by far-right Front National mayor

He promised during his election campaign that he would do it and Steeve Briois, the newly-installed far-right Front National mayor in the town of Hénin-Beaumont in the northern French département of Pas-de-Calais has proven true to his word.

Steeve Briois (screenshot AFP report)

In his first political act since taking office, Briois has suspended the grant to the local branch of the Ligue des droits de l’homme (Human Rights League, France - LDH) and ordered the association to vacate the premises it had occupied free of charge under the previous mayor.

"For years, the LDH (in Hénin-Beaumont) has benefited from grants and has been allowed the free use of local government-owned office space," said Briois.

"No lease been had ever been signed between the extreme left association and the previous mayor and the grant was completely illegal."

Hello? The LDH an "extreme left" assocation?

Well apparently so, as far as the FN is concerned because during the recent local election campaign, the president of the Ligue des droits de l’homme - Pas de Calais, Alain Pruvot, had warned "of the danger of the FN" and of the need to "block its way".

"We are quite aware of the danger there could be from the Front National gaining power in  Hénin-Beaumont and we want to make voters aware of that," Pruvot said at a press conference back in March.

"We want to counter ideologically the FN and show how dangerous it potentially is."

http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/henin-beaumont-ldh-met-garde-contre-dangerosite-fn-735092.html

For Briois, that was tantamout to a non-governmental organisation meddling in politics, and cited a 2002 ruling by the Conseil d'Etat which declared that "organisations that fought a political party whose existence was legally recognised could not be subsidised."

In reality though, Briois was probably just following a line set down by the party's leader, Marine Le Pen, during the run-up to the local elections when she had said in an interview with Le Monde that associations should be "put up against the wall, to show them that they mustn't  interfere in the political debate."

As far as the LDH is concerned, the FN's arguments might be legal but they also come "with a whiff of a witch hunt."

"The LDH is a political organisation but not a partisan one," its regional delegate, Georges Voix, said.

"We're not fighting a political party but an ideology."

French local elections - for two candidates, Henriette Frantz and Elise Machado, age makes no difference

Recently nonagenarians Arthur Richier and Roger Sénié decided to call it a day - politically speaking.

At 92 and 93 years of age respectively and after more than 60 years each in the job, both men thought better of standing yet again to be mayor of their villages.

But they are (almost) mere babes (all right, let's not exaggerate) compared to Henriette Frantz.

She has decided to put herself forward as a candidate in this year's local elections...at the age of 100.

The former headmistress occupies the last but one position on Yves Crubellier's list for the far-right Front National (FN) in the town of Saint-Genis-Laval (population just over 20,000) not far from the city of Lyon.

"I've always been to the right of the political spectrum," she said. "But at the same time I'm not really that politicised," added the woman who also stood at the last local elections for the FN back in 2008.

"I’m really happy to be a candidate because I think I can make a difference. The future isn't bright and I long for a serenity that no longer exists," she continued.

"Marine (Le Pen) is good, but she does not have the same stature as her father (Jean-Marie)," she said, admitting that the founder of the FN had made some errors in the past, but they had "to be excused".

Frantz isn't the oldest candidate seeking election though. That honour goes to a 103-year-old woman in Marseille, according to official statistics published by the interior ministry.

Henriette Frantz and Elise Machado candidates in the French local elections (collage of screenshots from France TV info)

Meanwhile at the other end of the age scale is Elise Machado who'll be standing as a candidate in the village of Le Mémont (population 41) in the département of Doubs in eastern France.

At just 17 years old, Machado is the youngest candidate in this year's local elections, beating the minimum age limit of 18 required to be eligible to stand because...well, her 18th birthday falls on March 22, the day before the first round of voting.

Machado says the decision to stand "represents the first steps in her adult life."

"It doesn't necessarily mean I'm interested in politics which sometimes appears a little 'fuzzy' (sounds as though she's pretty clued up already)," she said.

"What interests me most is to give my opinion on what happens in the village in which I've lived since I was born."

French politicians and their moments of mendacity - it's all the media's fault

Don't you just love (French) politicians. They're all so honest and sincere, fiercely upstanding in their efforts to represent and serve those who've elected them.

Furthermore, they refuse outright to deceive the public, especially when they're in front of a camera.

What you see or hear when they pop up on your TV screens (and boy, do they pop up) is the Coca Cola "Real Thing", the genuine article.

Cue corny commercial...



Er "Non, mais allô quoi" to quote one of the great French thinkers of our time.

If only.

But it's not their fault at all.

When politicians are caught out apparently trying to use the very same media of which they're often so critical to swing public opinion in their direction they're not to blame.

Rather, it's all the responsibility of the dreaded and dreadful media.

This past week there have been two examples in France which illustrate perfectly just how (some) politicians think the media really is out to "get" them.

First up there was Paul-Marie Coûteaux, founder and president of the Souveraineté, indépendance et libertés (SIEL) movement which has close ties to the far-right Front National (FN).

Paul-Marie Coûteaux (screenshot France 3 debate, May 2013

Indeed Coûteaux, a former member of the European parliament, campaigned for the FN's, Marine Le Pen, in the 2012 French presidential elections and he has joined forces with the her to help recruit new members especially those who might be disillusioned with the centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP).

He was also the subject of a report on last weekend's edition of the weekly news magazine  "Le Supplément" on Canal +.

Accompanied by a reporter and a camera team, Coûteaux went off at one point for a working breakfast in Brest where he claimed afterwards he had secured the promise of membership from a prominent local political figure who had been active in the 90s and his wife - both of whom had previously backed the UMP.

Getting back into his car to return to Paris, Coûteaux seemed to forget that he was still hooked up to the microphone  and smugly told his fellow passengers that he had "fooled the journalist by pretending that he had managed to recruit two new high profile members".

There had, as the programme pointed out, been no meeting with former UMP members interested in joining the FN, and Coûteaux had made the whole thing up.

An unrepentant Coûteaux spoke out in defence of his of er...stretching of the truth saying that Canal + had been "out to trap him, that's what the channel was good at and it was all part of (the media) transforming politics into a circus."

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2013/12/02/01002-20131202ARTFIG00340-fn-piege-sur-canal-couteaux-s-explique-sur-son-mensonge.php

Le Supplément du 01/12/13 - Part.1  Avec Florian Philippot

Of course.

The media was and is to blame for politicians not sticking with the truth and that's the line Le Pen took when she was asked for her reaction.

"I know Paul-Marie and he always tries to do his best," she said.

"He believes he can never do enough and he wanted to prove how much he could do because there were cameras around," she continued.

"And you know, the presence of a camera sometimes makes you say the craziest thing."

Politicians and sincerity 1 - the media 0

Ah yes those cameras. Not only do they apparently make politicians say something that isn't necessarily accurate, they can also make them do what they don't want to.

Just ask - and here for the sake of balance is the second example of how the media is responsible for the lies politicians don't tell -  Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Now Mélenchon probably needs as much of an introduction as (Marine) Le Pen.

During his years in politics the former Socialist party member has been a government minister, a senator, a member of the European parliament and a French presidential candidate.

Right now he's co-president of the Parti de Gauche, (Left party, PG) and all round pain in the backside of (among others) the French president François Hollande.

When there's a demonstration to be led against government policy especially in the fields of social and economic reform, you can bet your bottom centime that somewhere in the crowd (and usually at the head of it) you'll find Mélenchon.

He also has a love-to-hate relationship with the media.

Last weekend Mélenchon was living up to he reputation as a pain in the gluteus maximus with a rally in Paris against "the injustices of tax increases" (well nobody likes having to pay more taxes now, do they?) and, ahead of the official demo, was interviewed "live" by Claire Chazal on TF1's lunchtime news.

And there he stood in front of what appeared to be hundreds of flag-waving supporters, a "fact" that Chazal pointed out when introducing him.

"I just want to correct you Claire," he said. "This is a movement against the tax increases not just supported by my party but by a number of parties from the left of the political spectrum as well as the unions ," he added, seeming to forget momentarily the other mistake Chazal had made and the impression viewers might have had from the camera angle - namely that there was indeed a mass of people behind him.

 

Mélenchon : "La taxe, un impôt du pauvre pour les riches" sur WAT.tv 

Because you see, Stefan de Vries, a correspondent in France for the Dutch channel RTL and a contributor to both France 24 and La Croix, just happened to live across from where the interview was taking place and took a photo of the scene - something TF1 viewers didn't see.

He posted it on the Net and it quickly entered the Twittersphere accompanied by claims that TF1 and Mélenchon had been in cahoots to fool viewers.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon interview TF1 - street scene from Twitter

Mélenchon saw red (naturally), choosing his often preferred method of defence by going on the attack and writing on his blog that he had been asked to take part in what he considered to be a ridiculous interview before the rally began.

"It was just more interesting to have some supporters around rather than appearing in an empty street," he wrote, adding that a member of his party and not the so-called "journalist" had actually taken a photo and posted it on Twitter.

And he didn't stop there, laying into Conseil supérieur de l'audiovisuel (CSA) - rant rant rant, Europe 1 - rant rant rant, journalists in general - rant rant rant, the media - rant rant rant, the government - rant rant rant and rant rant rant...

Why choose a dozen or so words when several hundred will do?

In short, Mélenchon considered that he wasn't to blame for anything and it was all the fault of (paraphrasing) the media conspiring with the government to discredit him.

It must be exhausting being so angry with everyone all the time.

Politicians and sincerity 2 - the media 0

Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet's "killer" instinct as she attacks the "boys club" mentality in French politics

She's a woman with clear political ambitions and one viewed perhaps by some (herself included) as a potential future French president.

No, not the far-right leader of the Front National, Marine Le Pen - although there's no denying her increasing popularity - but Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet from the centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire, (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP).

Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (screenshot from BFM TV interview - April, 2013)

The self-confessed tough cookie with the "killer" instinct (is it perhaps easier to make these sorts of statements to a non-French media outlet in English?), gave an interview to NBC news this week in which she taok aim at the "boy's club" mentality within French politics and made pretty clear her ambitions.

The 40-year-old mother (important factor that - not least for NKM) of two is running for the position of mayor of Paris in next year's municipal elections and will most likely be the main challenger to the favourite, the Socialist party's Anne Hildalgo.

Why should it be important to NKM that she's a mother of two?

Well in the interview she says she was twice passed over for ministerial jobs because...she was pregnant.

Both the then-president Jacques Chirac and later (under Nicolas Sarkozy) the prime minister François Fillon, apparently told her she wouldn't a top job (although she was later given one in a reshuffle).

“They don’t realize what they are saying, she told NBC's Ian Johnston. "In fact, I’m not sure it was a real reason. I’m sure they had other reasons. [But] in their view, this reason was a good one," she added to show just how much of a "boys club" French politics still was and what an uphill struggle she and other women face.

No such words of understanding though for the former head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

Instead NKM says DSK and men like him, represent another battle for her and women of her generation.

“This is the type of man against which women of my age have to fight for women aged 20 not to have a problem and not to feel this type of attitude,” she said about the man who recently told CNN he "doesn't have a problem with women."

But perhaps the most revealing part of the interview is how NKM perceives politics and her role - past, present and most definitely future.

Chirac's "emmerdeuse" seems to relish the "compliment" paid to her by the former president, and all the while accepting the "killer" reputation ("Everybody is a killer in politics") and - without making it too difficult to read between the lines - clearly setting out a political agenda which aims at the very highest office ("Politicians that say they have no ambitions are a little ridiculous.")

Here's the link to the full NBC article.

How appropriate was Laurent Delahousse's July 14 Islam question to François Hollande

July 14, aka Bastille Day, came and went. France's celebratory show of military might made its collective way along "la plus belle avenue du monde", every major flippin' TV channel covered the it - live, and what ho!

The French president François Hollande (once again) broke an election promise (don't gasp in surprise).

Remember how during the presidential election campaign Hollande had said that, if elected, he wouldn't follow the example of his predecessors by conducting interviews at the Elysée palace?

Well....he had changed his mind - obviously.

François Hollande (screenshot from Huffington Post video on DailyMotion)

Weekend anchors Claire Chazal (TF1) and Laurent Delahousse (France 2) were the lucky couple invited along to pose questions on:

**shale gas (there won't be any exploration during his presidency apparently),

**taxes (he'll decide next year whether there need to be increases but wants to keep them to a minimum),

**the economy ("It's recovering!" Please don't splutter and snort in contempt as you read that...Hollande actually said it),

**a possible Sarkozy return (Hollande is "cool" about it - that's paraphrasing what he said),

**the Greens (the political party - not the type you might not want to eat) and their place in government, pensions, the Bernard Tapie affair (here's a challenge...try to explain what that's all about Twitter style) and all the usual subjects you might expect to be of interest to viewers.

It was a veritable flood of questions and follow-ups from both Delahousse and Chazal as the two battled for Hollande's attention during 35 minutes and Hollande, the poor guy, resembled a spectator at a tennis match with his head swinging from side to side, seemingly unsure as to whom he should direct his replies.

Chazal et Delahousse font" tourner la tête" de... par LeHuffPost

And then, just as it was coming towards the end, Delahousse slipped in a question that has angered some.

Hollande had just finished explaining how dangerous and ill thought-out he believed the policies of the far-right Front National's leader Marine Le Pen to be when Delahousse had his "inspirational" moment described by political journalist Bruno Roger-Petit in the Nouvel Observateur as being without any real substance and pandering to an agenda set by the Front National.

http://leplus.nouvelobs.com/contribution/907416-quand-delahousse-interroge-hollande-sur-islam-et-democratie-une-question-pro-fn.html

"During your recent visit to Tunisia, you said something very important in that 'France knows that Islam and democracy are compatible," began Delahousse.

"That was obviously a message aimed at Tunisians. But I wanted to ask you a question. In France there are five to six million Moslems and a third of them say they're practising. If one day, an Islamist party, a fundamentalist one, were created in France, what would be your reaction?"



Hollande's answer was a simple one, reiterating what he had said in his speech in Tunisia that "no religion was inconsistent with democracy" and that France "remained a secular state".

But Delahousse's question received a furious response from Socialist parliamentarian Pouria Amirshahi.

"This is an issue worthy of the propaganda of the far right," he said.

"It was pitiful especially as a question for a July 14 interview and just feeds into irrational fears," he continued.

"At best it was ridiculous and at worst it was one more example of those who try to have us believe France is being 'invaded'."

While Amirshahi's reaction might appear virulent, he surely has a point.

Look at the words use by Chazal as she welcomed viewers and outlined to Hollande what subjects would be covered right before the interview began.

"We will ask you questions on issues that of course concern the French: unemployment, growth, the economic crisis ... "

And Roger-Petit pointed out a certain inconsistency in Delahousse's "science fiction" question.

"How can one of the leading and most acclaimed French journalists put such a question to the president," he wrote.

http://leplus.nouvelobs.com/contribution/907416-quand-delahousse-interroge-hollande-sur-islam-et-democratie-une-question-pro-fn.html

"How can he ask him something that is a matter of 'science fiction' (abour the speculative creation of a fundamentalist Islamist political party in France) at the expense of "reality" (the creation of a political extremist Catholic party for the next European elections)?

An alliance between the UMP and Front National - a sign of things to come?

Next year the French - and many foreign residents registered in France, mainly EU citizens - will have the chance to go to the polls here in the country's municipal elections.

They'll be choosing the composition of local councils and, as a consequence, who'll be their mayor for the next six years.

Even though turnout might not be as high as it traditionally is for presidential and parliamentary elections, the chances are that (going on past results) a fair number of people will be exercising their democratic right at the ballot boxes.

And that inevitably means the results will be perceived by many as a sort of mid-term test for the French president, François Hollande, the government and the Socialist party.

That's not all of course. The performance of the other parties will also be scrutinised.

Will the opposition centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) finally be able to smooth over its internal differences and actually "win" an election?

How will the far-right Front National (FN) fare under its leader Marine Le Pen?

Will Jean-Luc Mélanchon's 180,000-strong (his figures - 30,000 according to the police) May 5 demonstration gather momentum to become a ballot box protest vote?

Questions, questions, questions.

Doubtless many will be asked and answered in different ways before, during and after the elections depending on the political spin.

One thing's for sure, with over 36,000 mayors to be elected up and down the country, party machines will have a tough job ensuring local activists toe the line.

That's already happening, with the UMP being forced to suspend one of its members for contravening party policy.

Arnaud Cléré
(screenshot France 3 television)

Arnaud Cléré is, or rather was until Monday, a member of the party in the town of Gamaches in the northern département of Somme.

He doesn't actually hold elected office, but wants to. And last week he announced he would be standing in next year's local elections on a list which also contained members of the FN.

It seems that for the 34-year-old, the proverbial "end justifies the means" - winning at any cost.

"It's all about strategy," he said.

"Gamaches has been in the hands of the communists or socialists for the past 30 years," he continued.

"There's no shame in an alliance with the FN...especially if it helps bring the right to power."

Not surprisingly perhaps Cléré's membership of the UMP has been suspended in line with party policy which the UMP leader Jean-François Copé reiterated in a recent speech in Nice insisting that the Front National was "an extremist party" and there would be "no alliance with that party".

But given the current political, economic and social climate in France, does anyone out there have the sense that Cléré's "political and tactical error" as it was decribed by UMP party officials, might be perceived as something else and instead mark a sign of things to come?

Is it time to scrap May 8 as a public holiday in France?

It's a question that is asked by some every year, especially in May when the number of public holidays can come thick and fast.

All right 2013 is perhaps exceptional.

May 1 (Fête du travail) and 8 (Victory in Europe Day) both fell on a Wednesday.

And the two "floating" holidays Ascension Day and lundi de Pentecôte (40 and 51 days respectively after Easter) both take place in May - 9 and 20.

Sure it's nice to "faire le pont" as many (but not all) French are doing right now by taking an extra day off and having in effect a five-day weekend.

But can a country really have so many holidays in one supposedly working month and support a total of 11 public holidays a year especially when it's going through an economic crisis.

Does it make sense?

Poland's president, Bronislaw Komorowski, and France's president, François Hollande, in Paris to mark the 68th anniversary of Victory in Europe Day (screenshot Euronews)

Hervé Lambel, president of  Créateurs d'Emplois et de Richesses de France (Cerf) certainly doesn't think so.

"Companies still have the same wage costs even in a month during which there are four public holidays,' he said.

"In total we're talking about 0.1 percentage point of GDP each year, spread across the 11 public holidays. That amounts to around €2 billion that's not being generated by the economy. It threatens business and doesn't make sense."

Lambel's argument cuts no ice with employment minister Michel Sapin.

"What are we supposed to do? Get rid of May 1, May 8 or May 9? he said on Europe 1 radio.

"Let's be reasonable, public holidays are there for people to rest, so they can work even harder afterwards."

And he's backed up by Insee studies which suggest that the economic impact is negligible and counterbalanced to a certain extent by the boost given to the tourist industry.

That's the economic side of things. But what about the historic significance?

After all May 8 is Victory in Europe Day to mark the date "when the World War II Allies formally accepted the unconditional surrender of the armed forces of Nazi Germany and the end of Adolf Hitler's Third Reich" which ended the war in Europe.

For Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far right Front National all of France's public holidays - including May 8 - are of historic or religious importance.

"French workers are among the most productive in the world," she told France 2.

"We have a history and our roots are in a Christianity which built France," she continued.

"Getting rid of any public holiday is most definitely not the right path to take."

But wait. May 8 has something of a checkered history as a public holiday.

Although it had earlier been recognised as a "day of celebration", it first officially became a public holiday, actually taking place on May 8, in 1953.

In 1958 Charles de Gaulle reduced its status to that of a "commemorative day" by making it the second Sunday in May.

It was restored to May 8 in 1968 without being reinstated as a public holiday.

And in 1975 another former president, Valery Giscard d'Estaing, abolished its status altogether in the name of Franco-German reconciliation.

It wasn't until 1981, under his successor François Mitterrand, the man who had been minister of veterans affairs when May 8 had first been recognised as a "day of celebration" that it once again became a public holiday - and on the right day.

So what do you think?

Should May 8 be kept as a public holiday in France?

The political numbers game - don't always believe what you see

As well as being a public holiday, May Day is the time for marching in France, and last Wednesday was no different.

Er...perhaps that needs to be reworded as any time seems good for the French to take to the streets.

If you need proof of that, just look at this past weekend.

First up, 35,000 (if you believe the organisers) or 15,000 (according to the police) took to the streets of Paris in "Le Manif Pour Tous" - yet another demonstration by those opposed to the law allowing same-sex marriage and adoption which was passed by parliament last month and is currently awaiting the approval of the Conseil Constitutionnel (Constitutional Council).

And then there was Jean-Luc Mélanchon and his 180,000 supporters (his figures) or 30,000 (according to the police) gathered in the capital, campaigning against austerity and calling for "a clean up of French politics and the creation of a new and improved France in the form of a 6th Republic."

Yes, the police were busy - but quite how busy, is open to question.

Anyway, back to May Day when, as tradition has it, trade unions take the lead in celebrating workers' rights (and protesting against government policy - this time around, austerity) in demonstrations throughout the country - 160,000 (organisers) or 97,300 police.

Once again, it's hard to get an exact picture.

But thankfully we've got the media to inform and provide those images that help give an accurate impression, haven't we?

Er...haven't we?

Well, that depends.

Take the case, for example, of another traditional rally in Paris on May 1, that of the far right (or economically protectionist, socially conservative nationalist party as Wikipedia now describes it) Front National, when Joan of Arc was inevitably evoked as a symbol of pride and patriotism, and the party's leader, Marine Le Pen delivered an address to the assembled throng.

Front National May Day rally, Paris
(screenshot BFM TV)

Once again there was a notable difference between the figures quoted by the organisers (15,000) and the police (6,000) who assembled to hear the woman who would, according to a (nonsensical) poll released at the end of April make it through to a second-round run-off (against Nicolas Sarkozy) if "the presidential elections were held tomorrow".

If you had been watching the three generations of Le Pen - Jean-Marie, Marine and Marion - leading the flag-waving supporters, you might well have had the impression that the far right march to power is inevitable and unstoppable because the camera doesn't lie - does it?

But wait.

Guess who was providing the footage used by many of the all-news channels in France covering the march?

Political journalist Nicolas Domenach revealed all on last Friday's lunchtime news magazine "Nouvelle Edition" on Canal + with a warning to be wary of what you believe you're seeing - it was the Front National itself, with only i>Télé "remembering" to inform viewers of that fact.

Have all those figures done your head in?

Time then perhaps for some musical respite.