French presidential election - leading candidates take to stage for marathon TV debate

So the first live TV broadcast presidential debate is over.

Only the “Big Five” or leading candidates were invited by TF1/LCI to take part; those ranking at more than 10 per cent in the opinion polls.

The leading candidates
screenshot

It was  a move that prompted Nicolas Dupont-Aignan - one of the “little candidates” (there are six of them - yes a grand total of 11 aiming for the highest office in the Land) to stomp off in a huff during a television interview during a news broadcast over the weekend.

So how did the candidates perform?

Well, as the BBC’s Hugh Schofield rightly points out, trying to predict the winner of any presidential debate is pretty much “a mug’s game”.

And although Monday night’s three-hour plus marathon might have been a first in a presidential campaign here in France (normally the debating is left to the final two before the second round) it’s probably anyone’s guess as to who actually came across as the winner.

Over nine million viewers tuned in to watch and although the “conventional wisdom” of political commentators (those who “know” best) and the independent polls taken immediately afterwards judged centrist Emmanuel Macron as the “most convincing”, it would be unwise to read too much into that.

Ultimately each candidate’s camp was putting its own political spin on the evening with each claiming to have been “satisfied”, “happy” and “confident”. Nothing new there then.

For the record though, here’s a personal view as to how they came across.

Macron probably had the most to lose and was on the receiving end of several attacks. After a ponderous start, though he held his own and refrained from falling into the traps laid down for him.

Still, he needs to find a “defining” policy which sticks in the electorate’s mind.

At the moment he appears to be caught in the Centre’s dilemma of wanting to appeal to all sides.

The far-right Front National’s Marine Le Pen was as bellicose as ever - only to be expected - and that won’t have done her any harm…among her own supporters.

But the shrugged dismissal of any criticism and an inability to come up with a response as to why she deems herself above the judiciary (only fleetingly addressed) and fa ailure to appeal outside of her own electorate will not have made her chances of widening her appeal.

Les Républicain’s François Fillon - was statesmanlike and serious (almost to the point of boring) but astonishingly reserved and restrained - almost as though he were, at times, absent. He too suffers from a difficulty of reaching out beyond his own “fans” - and oh yes, the foreign media should stop defining his candidacy as centre-right. It’s rightwing.

Benoît Hamon - the Socialist party’s candidate - was widely seen as having failed to shine. Sure, he was articulate and coherent but sometimes (too often in fact) saw his thoughts and ideas overshadowed by those of the man whose views most closely match his own - the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Make no mistake, Mélenchon (what was it with those very pink lips?)  was and remains an orator head and shoulders above the rest, able to inject more than a modicum of cutting wit at just the right moment.

But he’s also more of a troublemaker (especially for the Socialist party) than a serious candidate to be president.

The second debate in a fortnight’s (April 4) on BFM TV will feature all 11 candidate when the likes of Dupont-Aignan, Jacques Cheminade and François Asselineau will get their chance to ensure that the electorate is even more confused afterwards than it was before with polls still showing that around 40 per cent don’t know how they’ll vote.

French presidential election 2017 - The "Big Five" and a perplexed electorate

The French presidential election is turning out to be one of the most confusing and unpredictable of recent times.

And it’s really not surprising that,  according to many of the (innumerable) polls, there are a sizeable number of French who are still unsure as to how they will vote - at least in the first round April 23.

Of course, many of the leading candidates have their hard core supporters - but none of them is guaranteed a place in the second-round head-to-head.

What follows is not a (huge sigh of relief) poll and, admittedly, far from being scientific. It’s a recap of the five main contenders (in reality there are only three) to be this country’s next president. The comments are based on observations - something more than just a chat to the taxi driver on the way from the airport after being parachuted in to a country - from someone who lives among the French and hears their fears, confusion as to what might or might not happen in this year’s presidential elections.

The "Big Five" French presidential hopefuls: Marine Le Pen, François Fillon, Emmanuel Macron, Benoît Hamon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (collage of YouTube screenshots)

Perhaps the best-placed (again according to those omnipresent polls) to make it through the May 7 run-off is the far-right Front National’s (FN) Marine Le Pen.

Along with her faithful lieutenants (such as Florian Philippot), Le Pen has made a pretty good job of what the media calls “dédiabolisation” or “de-demonising” the party in terms of its image: giving it a veneer  of respectability, positioning itself as an anti-system alternative to “politics as usual” and broadening its electoral appeal.

In essence though, for all its nationalist and populist bluster about how it would do things differently if in power, the party would still be at the mercy of a political and institutional system (and all its inherent flaws and self—serving perks).  The FN also remains fiercely anti-immigration (a sugar-coated way of saying xenophobic and anti-Islam) implausible on economic policy and typically protectionist - although given recent global events such as Brexit and The Donald’s election in the United States, that might well be seen as an attribute.

The party is also a peculiarly “family business”.  Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie, was its founder, her partner, Louis Aliot, is one of its vice presidents and her niece, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, one of its two members in the National Assembly.

The right wing (although the party still insists on portraying itself as representing the Right/Centre-right) Les Républicains’ François Fillon was for many months the political pundits favourite to face Le Pen in the second round.

His overwhelming victory in the party’s November 2016’s primary provided him with a virtual “boulevard” to the Elysée: well that was the proverbial common wisdom. He would make it through to the second round and, even though he might have a hard time convincing those who had voted for leftwing parties in the first round, there was no way they would allow a Le Pen victory. In much the same way as Jacques Chirac had sealed success against Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002, so Fillon would be assured of doing (but less emphatically) in 2017.

But then it all well pear-shaped. The man who had always taken the moral high ground and presented himself as almost “whiter than white” found himself embroiled in “the Penelope gate” fiasco, suspicions that his Welsh-born wife and two of his children had earned hundreds of thousands of euros for “fake jobs” as his parliamentary assistants.

“If a presidential candidate is indicted - no matter for what reason - he (or she) cannot possibly maintain the trust of the electorate and must withdraw from the race” of his earlier campaigning became “I have become the victim of a media witch hunt and “I’m going to see this out to the very end”. A neat reversal of what he had said just months earlier. So much for consistency and integrity in French politics.

And then there’s Emmanuel Macron. His very strengths could also prove to be his weakness. He’s young (38) - perhaps too young for many to have that much needed gravitas of a Statesman. He not politically bound, even though he served as advisor and economics minister under the current president François Hollande, a man he is accused as having “stabbed in the back”. He has never stood for elected office before and his programme - yes he has one at last - for the longest time seemed vague: exciting but confusing - that mix of Centrist ideas that lack ideology (and dogma) and try to appeal to everyone and anyone (apart from the extremes).

Criticised by the Right as representing “Hollande redux” - and few French want a repeat performance of the last five years - and by the Left as not being Socialist enough, Macron has nevertheless managed to garner support from across the political spectrum with his movement “En marche” (On the move) - yes only the most confident (or arrogant) of people could give his political movement his own initials.

The media darling and golden boy of French politics has surprised many. His movement has gathered momentum but he lacks the structure of a political machine behind him. Sure, he could beat Le Pen if he makes it through the second round, but the transitory nature of his support - that so-called Centre - could also be his undoing.

So, what is the Socialist party up to? Well, it’s not so much fighting a presidential race as defining its own future as a party. In its primary it chose Benoît Hamon as the candidate. For many he’s “too Socialist”, too Utopian, offering the French what they want (to hear): no belt-tightening economic reforms (but no real guaranteed progress either). In fact more of the same as the country entrenches itself deeper in the beliefs of the past.

And Hamon is not drawing in the big crowds as he had hoped. The former rebel of yesteryear who resigned as Hollande’s education minister after just a few months in the job (what staying power) now finds himself confronted with his own rebels - hard-hitting party bigwigs who feel he is leading the lot of them into political oblivion and are (more than) tempted to throw their weight behind Macron. Result? Hamon has had to blow hot and cold on some of his core ideas such as universal suffrage.

Finally among those that really matter (and apologies for any other candidates who might obtain the necessary signatures to enable them to stand) there’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

If only this former Socialist party member could pull his act together and get over himself to join forces with Hamon, the Left might actually have some say in determining the outcome of the 2017 presidential elections.

But no, the angry old bloke of French politics (who has admittedly calmed down a fair deal since his campaign managers discovered social media) has an ideological path that doesn’t sit well with many inside the Socialist party. Oh yes - and an ego.

You see, and this is actually unusual in French politics - or any politics come to that, Mélanchon actually has (don’t say this too loud) principles. Employment rights, welfare programmes and a real redistribution of wealth to tackle existing socioeconomic inequalities actually mean something to him. And oh yes, he’s very anti-EU.

No wonder the French are perplexed. There’s no clear “leader” to guide the country over the next five years. Le Pen might well score highly in the first round but there’s still (hopefully) - at least on the Left - enough French who would do the “right thing” and vote tactically to keep her from winning the run-off.

Should she face Macron, it would be easier for those - Left and Right of the political spectrum - to swallow their pride and help the young pretender into office…no matter what their qualms might be about his leadership qualities.

But Fillon versus Le Pen casts quite a different picture. Distasteful Right against even more distasteful Far Right…and some might just be tempted to let the latter win simply by abstaining.

And that most unlikely combination of Macron against Fillon…heck, that’s just introducing another unfathomable element into the equation.

French journalist Vanessa Burggraf gives Philippe Poutou a lesson on how to humiliate a presidential candidate…without trying too hard

Media bashing has, in the wake of The Donald’s tediously repetitive “fake news” and “alternative facts” diatribe, become something of a recurring theme in the French presidential election.

Some supporters of the centre-right (although there’s not too much “centre” about him) candidate François Fillon, have been only too keen to lay the blame for the so-called Penelopegate affair (charges that Fillon had employed his wife, Penelope,  as a parliamentary assistant for the modest sum of €900,000 for work that was perhaps never done) at the proverbial door of journalists. The controversy has highlighted the shameful (but, it has to be said, not illegal in France) practice of disabusing tax-payers’ money and prompted the judiciary to get involved.

And the far-right’s Marine Le Pen…well, she’s more in the mould of The Donald in launching regular barbs concerning biased reporting or insufficient media coverage for the Front National while at the same time popping up whenever invited on prime time news to polish and preen her electoral image.

Journalists in cahoots with the political classes? Well, it makes for good fodder and it doesn’t matter whether it’s true (or fake or even an alternative fact). Most pundits would agree that the French are generally pretty cheesed off with their elected (national) representatives as a whole (and who can blame them?)

Vanessa Burggraf (screenshot "On n'es pas couché")

And an event on Saturday evening, will surely for many, only “add grist to the mill” (love a good cliché) that journalists and politicians are in their own little Parisian bubble - far away from the concerns of the general electorate.

It happened during a segment of Laurent Ruquier’s weekly talk show on France 2, “On n'est pas couché”.

The invited political guest was one of the so-called “minor candidates” in a field that currently boasts a total of 49  (although not all of them are expected to be able to gather the required signatures to be able to stand) Philippe Poutou from the far-left Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste.

Philippe Poutou (screenshot "On n'est pas couché")

One of Rouquier’s regular interviewers, Vanessa Burggraf, proved her full journalistic credentials in posing a question about the role of company bosses in preventing redundancies but somehow never managed to wrap her lips around what she really wanted to ask, especially after she was interrupted by the show’s host.

There then followed over two minutes of buffoonery from Burggraff, Ruquier and others as Poutou looked on, bemused and evidently uncomfortable. After all, his party - and it doesn’t matter what you think about its policies - is one the declares itself to “look after the little guy”.

Complete humiliation for Poutou, totally shameful on the part of Burgraff and Ruquier and simply unnecessary.

After all, the recorded segment could simply have been edited. But it wasn’t.

Nicolas Sarkozy quits politics…again

So the former French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has promised to leave politics.

His announcement came on the eve of his defeat in the first round of the primary to choose the candidate from the centre-right in next year’s presidential elections.

Nicolas Sarkozy (screenshot BBC News)

Sarkozy finished a distant third to his former prime minister during his five-year spell in office from 2002-2007, François Fillon, and blast-from-the-past hopeful (and another former prime minister) Alain Juppé.

Yes, how ironic that Fillon,  the man Sarkozy had described (apparently off-the-record) as his “assistant while the boss, that’s me” back in August 2007 “romped” to victory with just over 44 per cent of the four million who turned out to vote with Juppé (28.6) second and Sarkozy third (20.6).

The top two will now go head to head in a second round of voting on Sunday 27 November.

An unusually subdued and dignified Sarkozy thanked just about everyone possible during his speech in which he conceded defeat and gave his support in next Sunday’s round to his former “assistant” - moving many of his fans (because the cult of personality is and was at the core of Sarkozy’s approach to politics) to tears.

Sniff, sniff.

Just a shame the 62-year-old hadn’t been a little more noble and distinguished earlier in the day when he went to vote.

While Fillon, Juppé and the other four candidates had been happy to stand patiently in line while waiting to vote in their respective constituencies, Sarkozy, presumably not wanting to rub shoulders for too long with the (well-heeled) hoi polloi of the swanky XVI arrondissement in Paris, jumped the queue.

Jumped the queue.

Surely the way he will be lovingly remembered and treasured by his devotees.

And as for stepping out of the limelight to "have a life with more passion privately and less publicly”…cue that interview in March 2012 with Jean-Jacques Bourdin perhaps.

Why Nicolas Sarkozy should withdraw from the presidential primary race

Even though Nicolas Sarkozy is popular with a sizeable chunk of the centre-right Les Républicains (LR) party faithful, the French in general could probably come up with a fair number of reasons why he shouldn’t take part in the primary to choose next year’s presidential candidate.

After all, Sarkozy’s popularity in those ubiquitous opinion polls might have risen since he officially launched his campaign, but he still has some ground to make up on his main rival, Alain Juppé.

Nicolas Sarkozy (screenshot Euronews “Zapping” August 2016)

More importantly, no matter how sceptical you might be about the veracity of opinion polls, a whopping 79 per cent of the French don’t want to see Sarkozy at the Elysée palace.

Not surprising really as he has already had the job once.

And, in spite of all his pugnacity, Sarkozy proved he really wasn’t up to achieving much on political, economic and social fronts, while reducing the role of president to that of an often ill-mannered (“Casse-toi alors, pauv' con !”) impetuous caricature.

Then there’s his programme (as outlined in his latest bestseller “Tout pour la France”) - an almost knee-jerk reaction to the increase in support over the past years for the far right Front National by proposing policies that would move LR further to the right and taking a hard line on identity, immigration and security.

But most importantly there’s the so-called Bygmalion affair - when Sarkozy’s party, then known as Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP) allegedly “connived with a friendly PR company (Bygmalion) to hide the true cost of his 2012 presidential election campaign” and thereby breaking the limits allowed on campaign spending.

On Monday, the French prosecutor's office recommended that Sarkozy should stand trial for breaching campaign spending limits.

“A crude political manoeuvre”, claimed Sarkozy supporters and in particular his lawyer, Thierry Herzog; the inference being that the judicial system bowed to pressure from the Elysée palace.

And the timing - coming as it did on the opening day of the trial of Jérôme Cahuzac (remember, the former budget minister in charge of cracking down on tax evasion who was forced to resign in April 2013 after he admitted he had held  a secret foreign bank account for about 20 years) was too much of a coincidence and simply evidence that the government (read, the French president, François Hollande) was “using the French justice system to divert attention (from the opening of the trial).

Yes, well. There might well be some credibility on both counts as few would maintain that politicians are the most ethical of creatures.

But, here’s the crux of the matter. It’s not really important whether Sarkozy - as he claims - knew nothing about the false accounting and overspending, the fact remains that he was the beneficiary.

“That’s why he should withdraw,” said Christophe Barbier, managing editor of the weekly news magazine “L’Express” on his morning slot on BFM TV.

“He was maybe unaware of what was happening,” said Barbier. “But he was the one who benefitted (from the incredible overspending and false accounting) politically and electorally. And that’s the reason he should withdraw,” he repeated, “If only for reasons of humility.”

Yes. Well. Hardly one of Sarkozy’s main attributes.

Has Emmanuel Macron really “betrayed” François Hollande?

How does the (perhaps somewhat sexist) saying go? “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned”? ( an interpretation  based on a quotation from English Restoration period poet and playwright William Congreve’s “The Mourning Bride”).

Well, how about when it’s applied to a president, seemingly “betrayed” by one of his closest advisers and former (if the word is not too strong) “acolyte”.

Yes, you’ve guessed it - if not at least from the title.

The man (or men) in question is the French president, François Hollande, and his, now, former minister of Economy, Emmanuel Macron.

“Shocked” and “betrayed” is apparently how Hollande feels.

“If anyone believes they can go it alone and implement policies by themselves, they’re wrong,” he said on Wednesday to several hundred leaders of associations - an allusion to Macron’s resignation, without mentioning him by name, as well as his lacking a party machinery to back him.

And those words (at least the “betrayal” part, because let’s face it, Macron’s decision hardly took anyone by surprise) have been echoed by others in the Socialist party as the both the president and his government ministers try “ostrich-in-sand” style to ignore the reality and get on with surviving their final months before next year’s elections.

But was it really a "betrayal" or sign of disloyalty?

Sure, Macron had been an adviser to Hollande at the Elysée palace before landing (being given) his ministerial portfolio in August 2014 (replacing Arnaud Montebourg), but he has hardly made a secret of his ambitions.

In April this year he launched his own movement En Marche “which was neither of the right nor the left. Open to anyone from any political party” -  widely interpreted as a testing ground for a potential presidential bid in 2017.

And although a member of a (supposedly) leftwing government, Macron has always maintained he would be prepared to work with those from the right who share his values.

Indeed just weeks before his resignation, Macron admitted that he “wasn’t a Socialist”, totally in keeping with his repeated attacks on subjects dear to the party’s faithful such as the 35-hour working week.

No, 38-year-old Macron has never held elected office and doesn’t have a party machinery behind him. And that might hurt him - or at least make it difficult - should he decide to take a shot at next year’s presidential election

And yes, Hollande gave him his break and has “tolerated” his outspokenness and inability to play the collective solidarity game that is so “treasured” (if only in name) among French politicians.

But that’s the point.

French (any) politics is also about individuals full of ambition, not only for serving their country (which is what they want the electorate to believe and in true Méthode Coué come to believe themselves by repeating it endlessly) but also for their own self glory.

And it’s not “betrayal” if you realise that the man you once advised is no longer listening (or perhaps never was) and is refusing to see merit in your arguments.

You might not like what Macron stands for (pro-business, too removed from traditional leftwing politics, anti public sector and too reformist) but you have to respect that his decision to resign is one based on total and utter common sense and is a move that could (unlikely but nonetheless possibly) shake up France’s jaded political landscape.

Emmanuel Macron quits the French government

There’s little surprise in France that (former investment banker), Emmanuel Macron has quit his post as Minister of Economy (Industry and Digital Affairs) to (according to many political pundits) prepare for a shot at the top job in next year’s presidential elections.

It has been on the cards for quite some time, and especially so, since the founding of his own (good Socialist, that he isn’t) Centrist movement, En Marche, in April 2016.

Emmanuel Macron (screenshot BFM TV)

But there might well be a few raised eyebrows over the choice of his replacement.

It’s none other than the current Minister of Finance, Michel Sapin, a long-serving politician who was a classmate of the French president, François Hollande, (and Ségolène Royal, come to that) at the École nationale d'administration (Voltaire promotion of 1978-80).

Michel Sapin (screenshot BFM TV)

Yes, the two men go back a long time. Not only did they study together, they also shared a room during military service back in 1977.

If such a thing as friendship exists in the weird (and not so wonderful) world of French politics, then maybe that term can be used to describe the relationship between the two men.

And that means Hollande has an ally and someone he can trust to tell him the truth, if not of his chances of being re-elected next year (pretty slim to nil would be the wise man’s bet) then about the outcome for the Socialist party in the National Assembly elections slated for June 2017.

Because, as the managing editor of the weekly news magazine “L’Express” (and proud wearer of scarf)  Christophe Barbier, pointed out at the end of his slot on BFM TV’s "Première Édition", it’s not the first time Sapin has held the post.

Get in your time machine and travel back to  1992 when Sapin was similarly appointed to the “super ministry” of Economy and Finance.

And then fast forward - ever so slowly (if that’s not a contradiction in terms) just one year later - March 1993, to be precise - when the governing Socialist party suffered its worst electoral meltdown returning just 53 members to the National Assembly.

“The worst electoral defeat for the Left - apart from that perhaps in 2017,” commented Barbier.

Food for thought - n’est-ce pas M. le President?

Nicolas Sarkozy’s non-shock presidential election candidacy announcement

Well that’s a turn up for the books.

Former French president, Nicolas Sarkozy has announced that he’s to run in the primary to choose the candidate who’ll represent the Right and Centre-Right at next year’s presidential elections in France.

Screenshot Nicolas Sarkozy Twitter

Yes, the same man who, back in 2012 assured viewers, during an interview with Jean-Jacques Bourdin on BFMTV, that he would “retire from politics” if he lost that year’s presidential elections, has joined 14 other hopefuls - a decision which surprises absolutely nobody.


Archive 2012 - Quand Sarkozy assurait qu'il... par BFMTV

The announcement was the kind of political non-event which pretty much sums up politics in general in this country, and the tradition whereby those defeated in earlier elections, along with disgraced politicians, attempt a comeback.

You know, “Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose”. Or in the case of French politics, the same old faces keep popping up all the time.

Take a look at just a few of those on the list for the primary.

Ex prime minister Alain Juppé who has made his way back from a criminal conviction for abuse of public funds to become the man most likely to be able to beat Sarkozy.

Jean-François Copé, the former president of the Centre Right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a popular movement, (which under Sarkozy’s second stint as chairman renamed itself Les Republicans) who was forced to resign from that post following the Bygmalion invoices scandal (about which he knew nothing of course).

François Fillon - another former prime minister (under Sarkozy). Squeaky clean (in French political terms although there was that “storm in a teacup” scandal in 2014 when he reportedly encouraged one of François Hollande’s closest advisers at the Elysée Palace, Jean-Pierre Jouyet, to “accelerate” judicial proceedings against Sarkozy) but rather…er…dull.

Nadine Morano - no criminal convictions - but plenty of - let’s be polite - “barmy” Tweets (she’s an adept at Social Media) and controversial statements (such as France being  “a Judeo-Christian country, of white race")

Then there’s…

No, to list all of them would increase the yawn factor inexorably. And besides, with Sarkozy’s entry into the race, some will more than likely drop out.

Ah yes - that entry. Long expected and accompanied by a book (of course) “Tout pour la France” in which he outlines his “ideas” for the future of this country, and a scheduled appearance on prime time TV news.

Sarkozy has his work cut out. He might well be popular among his supporters (pretty much a foregone conclusion as it would be disastrous if he weren’t) but, if those never-ending opinion polls are to be believed, among the general population he’s unpopular and a majority have said they would not like to see him stand.

Oh well, too late now.

Affaire à suivre

It might not be easy understanding Bernadette Chirac...but

If you've been following French politics recently, it will surely not have escaped your notice that Bernadette Chirac has been making the headlines.

Bernadette Chirac (screenshot Europe 1 January 2014)

Her outspoken (and some would say "fervent") support for Nicolas Sarkozy in his campaign to become leader of the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) and possible run to be the party's candidate in the 2017 presidential elections has most probably both amused and bemused many French.

Especially as it has been accompanied by unapologetic salvoes fired at Alain Juppé, the man who would most likely present Sarkozy with the strongest challenge in the planned primary to choose the party's candidate for 2017 but of whom Bernadette said, "he's a very unwelcoming person. He doesn't win over people, friends and potential voters."

In a recent piece in Le Figaro entitled "Dans la tête de Bernadette Chirac" writer and journalist, Irina de Chikoff, gives some insight into the behaviour of France's former first lady.

And it certainly seems that Bernadette, wearing her trademark sunglasses whenever she's being interviewed, is far from being the cantankerous old lady set on saying and doing anything and everything to annoy her husband, Jacques Chirac, French president from 1995 to 2007 of course.

The time when Bernadette dutifully (and most often quietly) remained in the shadows of her husband is over and now she feels able to speak freely.

But it's not something that has happened overnight.

Instead, it's a process that began, by Bernadette's own admission,  back in 1997 when Chirac dissolved parliament a year before its term was up thinking the French would support him and return a majority allowing the re-appointment of Juppé as prime minister.

Chirac though had misread the electorate and it was a left-wing coalition of the Socialist party, Communists and Greens which obtained a majority, enabling Lionel Jospin to become prime minister and forcing five years of cohabitation or what Chirac described as "paralysis" as his political influence on domestic policy was "constrained" - to put it mildly.

"I was absolutely against the idea of dissolution and I told him," she admitted to Laurent Delahousse during a recent edition of "Un jour, un destin" on France 2, dedicated to France's former first lady.

Bernadette's  dislike and distrust of Juppé is as deep-rooted as her husband's admiration and support for the man he has described as "the best among us".

And her support for Sarkozy?

Well for Chikoff, it's not a case of Bernadette trying to annoy her husband.

Rather she sees in Sarkozy the same sort of energy and resilience Chirac once had.

"She holds no grudges against him (Sarkozy) - well almost none - for the times when he might have been politically disloyal to her husband," writes Chikoff.

"She would have liked to have had a son like Nicolas and that's why she's prepared to indulge him...as any mother would."

So, if Sarkozy wins November's battle for the leadership of the UMP and decides to take a run for the party's primary, we can probably expect to here more - plenty more - from the lady behind the sunglasses.

Be prepared.



Bernadette Chirac se mobilise pour les... by Europe1fr

Jacques and Bernadette Chirac's political devide

It must be...er...interesting in the Chirac household at the moment.

The former French president, Jacques, and his wife, Bernadette, are apparently at odds over who to support in the primary to choose the candidate for the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) in the 2017 presidential elections.

Yep. It might seem a long way off, but hey ho, that hasn't stopped the political posturing.

Mind you, it's not exactly Jacques who's saying anything.

Rather it's the former first lady, Bernadette, who's taking potshots at one of the candidates already declared, Alain Juppé.

Bernadette Chirac (screenshot Europe 1 interview, January 2014)

Bernadette is a fervent supporter of Nicolas Sarkozy - both to head the UMP when the party chooses its leader in November and in the race to be its candidate for 2017, even though he hasn't officially declared his interest in running (although only a fool would vote against him doing so).

And the 81-year-old apparently has little or no time for Juppé - widely seen as Sarkozy's main challenger should he actually decide to seek the party's nomination.

"Juppé? What has Juppé got in common with Sarkozy?" she said when interviewed at the weekend.

"Alain Juppé is a very unwelcoming person. He doesn't win over people, friends and potential voters," she continued.

"You know, when important elections are approaching, you need someone with exceptional qualities. There are very few people around like that. I know, because my husband was president twice," she added.

Surely a clear indication that, as far as she's concerned, Juppé lacks the "exceptional qualities" which presumably Sarkozy has.

That might be Bernadette's assessment of Juppé's qualities - or lack thereof. But her husband apparently doesn't share her opinions.

Chirac didn't actually say as much himself.

Instead it was Juppé who revealed that the former president, under whom he served as prime minister from 1995-1997, was as loyal to him now as he had been in the past.

"Bernadette Chirac's remarks don't concern me at all," he said.

"The image of being seen as 'cold' is something that belongs to the past and there are stereotypes that always stay with you. Do you think the people of Bordeaux (the city of which he is mayor) consider me to be 'cold'?" he continued.

"I saw Jacques Chirac recently. We spent a great together and he confirmed his feeling that I was 'probably one of the best among us' (a reference to what Chirac had said of him back in the early 1990s)

And finishing with style and flourish, Juppé added, "You know, Jacques Chirac is loyal. He doesn't change his mind. And besides, I don't really want to get involved in matrimonial differences - whatever they might be."



As a timely aside, Juppé, who received an 18-month suspended sentence and a 10-year ban from running for political office (reduced to 14 months and one year respectively on appeal) in 2004 for abuse of public funds, was awarded the Press Club of France's prize for political humour 2014 on Monday for a comment which just about sums up French politics (and certainly Juppé's political career).

"In politics, it's never over. Look at me!"

Handbags at dawn - Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé

Ah. Politics is such a fickle profession.

"Friends" come and "friends" go - as befits the occasion.

And the odd feud along the way, seemingly forgetten when the two (or more) protagonists are reconciled is...well, frankly, par for the course.

Right now though, there's trouble apparently brewing (yet again) for the opposition centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) as certain figures jostle for position ahead of the party's planned primary (some time in 2016) to choose the candidate for the 2017 presidential election.

Yes, it might seem a fair distance away - and the battle for the leadership (quite a separate matter) hasn't yet taken place - but territory is already being marked in the very finest of...well, manners in which territory is traditionally marked in the animal kingdom.

Remember (yet again) that the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, threw his proverbial hat into the ring for the lUMP eadership campaign last week - pitting him against two other declared contenders, Bruno Le Maire and Hervé Mariton.

And although he hasn't actually said he'll seek the party's nomination for 2017, all the talk is that is really his ultimate goal.

Should he decide to enter that particular fray, he'll find himself up against at least two other declared candidates - both of whom served under him during his time as president: François Fillon, his prime minister during five years, and Alain Juppé, who served as foreign minister for the final 15 months of Sarkozy's "reign".

While both represent a challenge to Sarkozy, it's Juppé, with his wealth of political experience (including as the former leader of the UMP 2002-2004, prime minister under Jacques Chirac 1995-1997 and twice foreign minister as well as spells at defence and environment) and popularity who probably presents the biggest danger.

Alain Juppé (screenshot from "Le Grand rendez-vous" Europe 1, September 21, 2014)

Seemingly eager to bury the hatchet (but where), or perhaps better said, dissuade him from standing...or both...during his 45-minute televised interview last weekend, Sarkozy said of Juppé, "I met him when I was 20 years old. He has become a partner, a friend and a companion. He's someone I admire greatly."

Ah. That's nice, isn't it. Quite the proverbial olive branch.

Except in private, Sarkozy has apparently been saying something quite different according to the weekly satirical newspaper Le Canard Enchaîné.

It  reminds its readers that at the beginning of September (a couple of weeks after Juppé had said he would be standing in the 2016 primary - a selection process not at all to Sarkozy's liking), Sarkozy is rumoured to have said (in private of course) that he would "kill him" (politically speaking...Juppé's response on hearing the rumour was that Sarkozy "knew where to find him").

And according to the newspaper, Sarkozy has once again been firing salvoes in private, especially over Juppé's age and "moral" lecturing.

"Juppé will be 72 years old in 2017 and has an 18 month suspended prison sentence (for abuse of public funds), behind him," he's reported to have said.

"Do you think he scares me or that he's the right person to give me a lesson in morals?"

Juppé isn't exactly a political shrinking violet though. On the contrary, he's a seasoned scrapper, albeit it with rather more humour, perhaps more cutting and incisive and certainly more refined.

While Sarkozy was explaining his reasons on France 2 on Sunday evening for his political comeback, Juppé was unveiling on his blog the sort of programme he would be putting to party members during the primary.

And on Tuesday he told BFM TV that it was clear the battle had begun.

"I know that today the match has started," he said, poking fun at the idea that Sarkozy would try to change the name of the UMP to rid it of the less than positive image it has had over the past couple of years.

"You know, everything can be changed," he said.

"Rather than call it the UMP we can rename it PMU (also the name of the state-controlled betting system, Pari mutuel urbain). If that's the change, it won't exactly be fundamental."

The war of words has begun - and the campaign (should Sarkozy eventually declare) could well prove to be a rough one.

To be continued...


Juppé sort les armes contre Sarkozy by 20Minutes

How serious is François Hollande about (maybe) not standing for re-election in 2017?

"When the going gets tough, the tough get going," runs the cliché.

And if you just happen to be the French president, François Hollande, it provides an opportunity to throw in the proverbial towel a few years in advance - just in case.

Hollande's statement last week that he might not run for a second term in office in 2017 if he didn't succeed in lowering unemployment in France must have gasted a flabber or two because it was hardly a sentiment you would expect from someone holding the highest office in the land.

“If unemployment doesn’t improve between now and 2017, I have no reason to be candidate and no chance of being re-elected,” Hollande said during a visit to  Michelin's Ladoux research and development site just north of the company's headquarters in the town of Clermont-Ferrand.

And he added - just as he has for the past couple of years - that all the government's energy would be put into fighting unemployment because, "the challenge was the most important one the country faced."

François Hollande during a visit to Michelin (screenshot France 3 report)

Well at least Hollande was being consistent as it's a pledge the French have heard repeatedly ever since he took office in May 2012.

Every month, the (now former) employment minister, Michel Sapin, massaged and reinterpreted the figures to show that while unemployment was on the increase, the rate at which it was rising had slowed down - or so he wanted everyone to believe.

Doubtless, now that Sapin has been moved to the finance ministry, his successor François Rebsamen will (be forced to) do the same.

Meanwhile Hollande, who had promised an absolute decrease by the end of 2013, stuck his head in the sand in true ostrich style and continued repeating his Méthode Coué mantra that unemployment would drop before finally admitting (well he had little choice in the end) that he had failed to reach his objective in one year.

Clearly not one to learn from his mistakes, Hollande has now extended the deadline by another three years and all the time, once again staking his political future on the same objective.

So is it really time for the Socialist party to begin looking around for another potential candidate for 2017 allowing the political manœuvring to gather steam (not that politicians need much encouragement).

Is it simply Hollande blustering and preparing the country for another three years of rising unemployment?

Perhaps it's potential political suicide as some pundits have suggested, should Hollande not be able to pull it off.

Or maybe his apparent commitment is a courageous, but at the same time foolhardy, one.

It's probably anybody's guess - even among those who profess to understand how (French) politics works.

There again, Hollande's definition of what might eventually constitute a turnaround could remain as vague as much of his policy direction has during his (almost) two years in office.

One thing's for sure. Hollande's statement is hardly one which inspires confidence and it surely just adds weight to the belief by many, even within his party, that the cause for the bad showing in the recent local elections was not so much the former government's policies but...Hollande and his style of "non leadership".

Do polls "predicting" François Hollande defeat in first round 2017 French presidential elections make any sense?

Ah political polls. Don't you just love 'em?

The frequency with which they're commissioned and published in France would have you believe the French do...well at least the country's media does when the news schedule is slack or journalists feel like a good old job of "professional" political speculation.

The latest "nonsense" poll to be published is one carried out by OpinionWay for Le Figaro and LCI telling us that if the 2017 presidential election were to take place today (well, you know how these things work) François Hollande would not make it past the first round.

He would only win 18 per cent of the vote in the first round, trailing both the far-right Front National (FN) leader Marine Le Pen (25 per cent) and the (presumed) candidate for the centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP) Nicolas Sarkozy (29 per cent).

In other words the presidential second round in 2017 would be between Le Pen and Sarkozy.

(screenshot OpinionWay poll of voting intentions)

"Allô ! Non mais allô, quoi," to quote a great modern day French thinker.

What's this all about.

Seriously - forecasting results three years hence, based on a poll taken today is...well, misleading to say the least.

Of course it's probably one of the drawbacks of the "quinquennat" or the five-year presidential mandate passed by Jacques Chirac in 2000 and first used in 2002 to replace the previous seven-year term in office.

No sooner has a president been elected in France, than attention seems to focus on what might or could happen five years down the line.

Of course Hollande is unpopular at the moment. We know that because...well the polls keep telling us and the media delights in repeating it.

But predicting that Hollande might not even make it past the first round in 2017 when he's not even halfway through his term in office is...well surely complete and utter nonsense.

In fact it's a non story and one of pure fiction.

Sure it feeds into the widely-held (according to those very same opinion polls) belief that Hollande is incompetent, lacks clear vision and was the major reason for his Socialist party's defeat in last month's local elections,

But in and of itself, the survey says nothing about the likely outcome in 2017. Rather it's just a snapshot of current opinion and the image those polled have of Hollande.

After all, if a week is proverbially "a long time in politics", what the heck does that make three years?

Not convinced? Then just take a look at what a poll, taken at a similar stage during Sarkozy's term in office, predicted for the first round of the 2012 election - two years before the Dominique Strauss-Kahn affair hit the headlines.

Sarkozy followed by Martine Aubry and François Bayrou.



(screenshot La Nouvelle Edition, Canal +)



The actual result (just in case you needed a reminder) Hollande 28.63 per cent, Sarkozy 27.18 per cent and Le Pen 17.90 per cent.

A prime ministerial week in French politics - present, past and...er...future?

Bienvenue! to another look back at a week in French politics and as you can see from the title, the focus this time around is on prime ministers.

Before plunging head first into the "news" though, a few words on the position itself.

It's an odd sort of role in France because it's the president who gets to appoint (and sack) the person he thinks is the best man (or on one occasion, woman) for the job.

He (or she) has to come from the majority party in parliament . That's why there have been three periods of so-called "cohabitation" since the beginning of the Fifth Republic in 1958 when the prime minister and president have come from different parties.

But the position doesn't have to go to the leader of the majority party.

Had that been the case after the 2012 presidential and parliamentary elections, François Hollande would have chosen Martine Aubry to be prime minister.

Perish the thought!

In fact, rare though it might be, the job doesn't even have to be given to an elected representative.

During his second term as president, for example, Jacques Chirac appointed career diplomat Dominique de Villepin as prime minister for two years.

Sometimes viewed as playing second fiddle to the president, the holder of the office of prime minister is (quoting from the constitution here) charged with "directing the actions of the government, being responsible for national defence and ensuring the implementation of legislation."

And oh yes, if you happen to be Jean-Marc Ayrault, practising the art of the Coué method.

Which brings us nicely to the end of the potted (with cavernous gaps admittedly) overview and allows us to get cracking with the news.

Where better to start (although you could probably think of one) than with Ayrault himself.

In an interview with the regional daily Presse-Océan - which just happens to cover the city of Nantes, where he was mayor for 23 years (ah, can't you just hear the echoes of Arnaud Montebourg's cutting comment that Ayrault "ran the country as though it were a local council"?) the prime minister was in...well...almost "Spice Boy" mode.

Yes, he seemed to have taken a little too literally the lyrics of Baby, Ginger, Posh, Scary and Sporty's 1997 hit "Spice up your life" with an "all you need is positivity" approach.

"There are positive signs that the economy is recovering," he told the paper.

"And we must do everything we can to encourage it because our priority has to be employment."

Oh change the record M. Ayrault.

Speaking of which, do you fancy some music?

No?

Tough.



Ah. That's better. Don't you all feel full of "positivity" now?

Well you'll need to if you're going to understand what's happening with the centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP).

It managed to spend the first part of the week tying itself into knots over which political direction it would or wouldn't take rather than fulfilling its role as a credible opposition.

François Fillon (screenshot BFM TV report)

And it was all down to François Fillon, Ayrault's predecessor at the Matignon.

He dropped a bit of a bombshell at the weekend saying that in next year's municipal elections, UMP supporters should vote for the "least sectarian" candidate in the second round if the party's candidate didn't make it through and it came to a straight run-off between the far-right Front National and the Socialist party.

Yikes!

What the heck was he saying?

Break with the party's policy of urging supporters to vote for neither or was he actually shifting his position?

Nobody really seemed to know and the party went into headless chicken mode as its leaders assembled to clarify policy - all agreeing that the "neither nor" strategy was the one to be followed.

Fillon even appeared in front of the cameras afterwards to repeat that he had "always been against an alliance of any sort with the FN and it had been something he had fought against all his political life" and "he had no intention of changing his position."


Fillon: "j'ai toujours combattu les alliances... par BFMTV

So. What was he up to?

Perhaps the answer lies somewhere in the grass roots support there is among UMP party  members for some of the FN's policies.

As revealed in a poll at the beginning of the week, over 70 per cent "agreed" with what Fillon had apparently said and were in favour of the FN being considered as a "normal" party.

Also, let's not forget that Fillon is campaigning to be his party's candidate in the 2017 presidential election.

By creating a "buzz", he had not only proven himself a little less colourless than some might have thought, but had made life a little more difficult for the party's leader, Jean-François Copé.

Yes, Fillon looks set to continue with his operation "Stir everything up" for the next...three years.

Wonderful!

So that's present and past dealt with. What about the future?

Well, there was bad news of sorts for the man tipped by many (including himself) to be a future prime minister (president and master of the universe), Manuel Valls.

The interior minister is no longer the country's favourite politician.

In the monthly (yes, these things really are produced that frequently) poll Ipsos conducts for Le Point on political popularity (rather like a hit parade but without the moo-sick) Alain Juppé (a past, past prime minister among many other things) ranked Number One with a song taken from his most recent album "I'm really the man who should be president but I prefer sitting on the sidelines and appearing all statesman-like".

Valls meanwhile, who had been Top of the Pops since October 2012, slipped a place without blowing so much as a gasket.

Now, if, for some peculiar reason, you would like to follow the progression (or otherwise) of your (least) favourite French politician from month to month, you can check out the baromètre de l'action politique Ipsos / Le Point here.

And finally - because it's just too difficult to resist - François Hollande's interview on TF1 with Claire Chazal...as interpreted by those folk over at Les Guignols de l'Info over at Canal +.

screenshot from Les Guignols video

Take the recent chart-topping hit single (yes music has been rather a laboured leitmotif during this piece) "Papaoutai" (Friday's French music break a couple of weeks ago) from Belgian singer-songwriter Stromae, fiddle with the lyrics and put them in the mouth of Hollande's puppet et...voilà "Emploioutai"

EMPLOIOUTAI ? Le tube du quinquennat - Les Guignols du 16/09

And that seems a suitable point at which to wish you a great weekend.

French president 2017 - Bill Clinton?

It might seem like something of a long shot, but apparently former US president Bill Clinton is - or rather could make himself - eligible to run for the Élysée palace.

Bill Clinton (screenshot from CNN interview)

Clinton was being interviewed by CNN's Piers Morgan on Tuesday who rather lightheartedly put to the former US president, an invitation to run as prime minister of the United Kingdom at some point in the future.

The 66-year-old Clinton smiled in response and said there were only two countries for which he could be eligible to run for the leadership position; Ireland and France.

And here's his explanation of how he could at a push, put the wind up the likes of François Hollande, François Fillon, Marine Le Pen and others.

Well, it's "possible" at a stretch - a very long stretch mind you.