Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé - the battle of the opinion polls

Another day, another poll - and one involving the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy...of course.

Well it is France after all.

Yes, there are other things happening in France - and not just in the world of political surveys.

Sarkozy, for example, is busy "pleasing all" (or trying to)  and attempting to unite the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) as he puts together a team resembling a shadow cabinet (divisions included) since winning, in less convincing fashion than he had probably anticipated, the battle for the leadership of his party last weekend.

But the poll looks to the future (er...don't they always, in so far as they're asking speculative questions?) and in particular the expected (political) handbags at dawn "combat" to become the UMP's candidate for the 2017 presidential campaign.

Anyway the latest poll, carried out - just before the UMP leadership election - by YouGov on behalf of the all-news channels i>Télé and Le Huffington Post.

It's essentially to show in order of popularity, how French politicians (or at least their images) rate with the public - "about which of these - answer as many times as you wish - do have a positive opinion?"

And the outcome is that the big winners in the past month (the so-called "Tops"), in terms of how they're perceived by the French electorate at large are Bruno Le Maire and the man who could well push Sarkozy all the way in the expected primary to be the UMP's next presidential candidate, Alain Juppé.

Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé at a meeting in Bordeaux, November 2014 (screenshot AFP report)

The tables aren't exactly easy to read (when are these things ever - go to this link and open the pdf file) but the Huff Post neatly sums up the survery's findings with Juppé and Le Maire both on the upswing (their "Tops" and Sarkozy losing a few points 'and appearing among the "Flops").

Oh yes...and look at who's at number two on the "positive" list - Marine Le Pen.

Just for a bit of fun, take a look also at the second table which shows those politicians who most engender a negative image (the Flops).

Right up there towards the top (just after Jean-Marie Le Pen and ahead of Jean-François Copé and Marine Le Pen) is Sarkozy - surely adding to the general feeling that he is able to unite and divide opinion (a little like Marine Le Pen) at the same time but one thing's for certain...he doesn't leave anyone indifferent.

Oh yes...and there's a slight increase in the popularity of the current president, François Hollande, and the prime minister, Manuel Valls. But not enough to be of any real significance.

They really need a better PR team - or perhaps policies that actually work...whoops.

So, who's "Lookin' after number one"?

Well, the title is not an allusion to the 1977 debut single of the same name by The Boomtown Rats.

Instead it's a tortured reference to one of the "big" political stories to have made the news in France over the past week.

"What could that be?" you might be asking (or not).

After all, it's a while since I let my fingers do the walking and brought you bang up-to-date with an objective look at the wonderful world that is French politics.

It's the upcoming European elections perhaps, and the somewhat "contrived" battery of polls which show French voters apparently giving the far-right Front National's (FN) anti-EU "programme" (sorry about the inverted commas - needs must) the thumbs up when everyone knows the big winner will really be the abstention rate.

Yawn.

Or Robert Ménard, one of the founders, and former secretary-general, of Reporters Sans Frontières who now, as mayor of the town of Béziers in the south of France (a post he won with the backing of the FN in March) has decided to ban - wait for it - the townsfolk from leaving their washing out on their balconies if it can be seen from the street?

Oh wait a moment. It'll only be between the hours of six o'clock in the morning and 10 pm. So it'll be all right to hang your undies out to dry during the night.

No. Too silly by far. Although a piece tracing Ménard's career from being a member of the Socialist party to becoming a self-declared "reactionary" in favour of the death penalty and against same-sex marriage might be interesting.

Maybe "Lookin' after number one!" alludes to Alain Delon, an...er...icon (is that the right word?) of the French cinema; a living legend whose brain seems to have become addled over the years (well he's getting on) and feels the need, and probably thinks his "star" status gives him the right, to express his social and political views in public.

After saying last year that same-sex couples should not be allowed to marry, that being gay was "against nature" and that "men were meant to woo women and not pick up other guys", it's perhaps little wonder that the 78-year-old has come out (entirely intentional turn of phrase) in support of Christine "homosexuality is an abomination" Boutin and her Force Vie movement in the European elections.

Nope. Delon and Boutin are far too busy looking after family values to be concerned about only themselves.

So "Lookin' after number one!" must be about Jean-François Copé's problems as the leader of the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP).

You know the story, surely.

Copé's alleged "shady dealings" with UMP funds by handing out contracts to a communications company run by a couple of close buddies, which charged the party for events which never happened.

Ho hum. Looks as though it's all about to go ballistic next week when police will question three UMP parliamentarians who could well provide the proof that Copé is responsible for certain...er..."irregularities".

No, it's not that either.

Rather "Lookin' after number one!" refers to the former political scribe-turned politician  Henri Guaino and a parliamentary resolution he's tabling which shows that at the very least he has cojones.

Henri Guaino (screenshot "Bourdin direct" BFM TV, May 2014)

You see (and this is going to be a little complicated to explain) Guaino made remarks about the judge who has been investigating the dealings of Nicolas Sarkozy (to whom he was both a special advisor and political speechwriter) with French billionaire Liliane Bettencourt.

He (Guaino) accused Jean-Michel Gentil (the judge) of "dishonouring the justice system" in the manner in which he was questioning and investigating Sarkozy.

That comment clearly didn't sit well with l'Union syndicale des magistrats who brought a case against Guaino to the public prosecutor for "contempt of court and discrediting an act or judicial decision, under conditions likely to undermine the authority of the justice or independence".

Guaino's reaction? Well, he stood by everything he said.

But just to take out some extra "insurance", he's now asking his fellow parliamentarians to pass a resolution which would...." suspend the proceedings by the public prosecutor of Paris against Henri Guaino, MP for contempt of court..."

All right. That's more than enough French politics.

Here's Bob Geldof (pre KBE) and the rest of 'em

Christine Boutin, "Homosexuality is an abomination"

No prizes for guessing which particular ex-minister came up with that delightful sentiment.

None other than Christine Boutin, housing minister for two years in François Fillon's first two governments under Nicolas Sarkozy.

The founder and, until last year leader, of the  Parti chrétien-démocrate (Christian Democratic Party, PCD) is well known for her tolerance and understanding of all things gay.

An "outraged" Christine Boutin refuses to answer questions about being married to her first cousin (screenshot LCP May 2013)

The now 70-year-old made her name on the national political stage during the parliamentary debate in 1998 when the government of the day, under Socialist party (PS) prime minister Lionel Jospin, introduced legislation to allow civil union between same-sex or opposite-sex couples; the  pacte civil de solidarité (civil solidarity pact) or PACS.

Boutin was vehemently opposed, most famously giving a five-hour speech during which she said (among many other things) that the legislation was unacceptable because it would  (paraphrasing) "put homosexuality and heterosexuality on the same, level, leading to the demise of society and seriously jeopardising the education of children."

Fast forward 15 years and Boutin was back on her soapbox, spouting her family values, predicting "civil war", the end of (French) society and marching at the front of the "Mariage pour tous" demonstrations against legislation to allow marriage between couples of the same sex.

She was in her element once again, insisting she was not a homophobe while also talking about (shortly after the legislation passed) what appeared to her to be "an invasion of gays".

So the editors of the quarterly political magazine Charles must have known Boutin would be good for a quote or two when they invited her to answer questions about her "vision of sexuality and morals" (and her views on Dominique Strauss-Kahn) in their most recent issue.

That's when she seized the opportunity to make, what she sees, as an important distinction between a homosexual or lesbian and the sexual act.

"I have never condemned homosexuals," she said. "Homosexuality is an abomination. But not the person," she continued.

"Sin is never acceptable, but the sinner is always forgiven."

Yes, Boutin at her "best" - and too much even for the leader of the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP) and the man she had backed in the battle to win that position in 2012, Jean-François Copé.

He turned to Twitter to give his reaction to Boutin's views, calling them, "intolerable, unacceptable and unforgivable."

Although Boutin no longer holds elected national office in France, you can expect to hear more from her during the upcoming campaign for the European parliamentary elections.

She has launched the list "Force vie" with candidates (including herself) offering an anti-system alternative to the established parties, which for Boutin includes the PS, UMP and the Front National.

Watch out Strasbourg!

French Socialist party leader Harlem Désir calls Jean-François Copé's bluff over party campaign finances

Jean-François Copé, the leader of the opposition centre-right Union Pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement) went on the "counter attack" on Monday.

He cancelled a morning interview with one of France's toughest radio and TV journalists, Jean-Jacques Bourdin and instead concentrated on his "solemn declaration" that he would deliver later in the day to answer allegations published in the weekly news magazine Le Point that smacked of political cronyism and financial corruption.

Jean-François Copé delivers his "solemn declaration" (screenshot BFM TV)

In its most recent issue, the magazine maintained that Copé had been partly responsible for "ruining the party's finances" during Nicolas Sarkozy's 2012 presidential campaign by channelling party funds to communications companies run by some of his (Copé's) friends.

Those companies, said Le Point, had charged inflated prices of 20 to 100 per cent more than the "going rate".

So how did Copé answer those accusations?

Well, he didn't.

Instead he offered up the sob story of a man who had become the victim of a "public lynching", a "man hunt" a "plot to discredit him" and of "journalism worthy of the Inquisition."

He would "sue Le Point" and in a wonderful turnaround from the man who was had been against the government's introduction of a law (after the so-called Cahuzac affair) requiring first ministers and then all parliamentarians to "declare all their assets", Copé now insisted that his party would "open all its accounts to public inspection if other parties agreed to do the same".

What's more he would introduce a parliamentary bill later this year to make it a legal requirement for all political parties.

Er hello?

Isn't there already a law on the books requiring French political parties to be accountable for their spending and funding especially if they qualify for state subsidies (ie: having some of their election expenses reimbursed)?

Yes there is.

So Copé's bill would be a pointless exercise.

Besides, the Socialist party is ready to call his bluff with its leader, Harlem Désir, saying on Tuesday that his party would be "more than happy to make its accounting details public."

"There's no need for a law," he said. "It's just a question of 'wanting to do it'," he continued.

"We're more than happy to make it easier for M Copé and the UMP to be more transparent by allowing journalists access to our detailed public accounts."

Your week in French politics including the Sarkothon and the governmental diesel cock-up

Time, for those who are interested, for a look back at some of the political stories in France from the past week.

And what a start to the week for the centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP).

Happy days again, as it's not longer "Pauvre" (Le Point's pun from earlier this year).

Remember how in July the Conseil Constitutionnel refused to validate the party's spending during Nicolas Sarkozy's 2012 presidential campaign?

The decision sent the UMP into a deep financial depression and forced the former president and party bigwigs to launch a campaign for funds - aka the Sarkothon (what else?).

Well the target has been reached. A cool €11 million has been raised in just a couple of months and the party's president, Jean-François Copé couldn't contain his delight at a conference in Le Touquet.

"I'm happy to tell you that today we've achieved our target," a radiant Copé said.

"We're raised the €11 million necessary."

And just in case anyone had missed the news, he turned to Twitter to tweet...uh...exactly the same thing.



Mind you, Copé wasn't the only relieved UMP member to take to Twitter.

Nadine Morano (yes her) was at her tweeting best too.


Phew. We can all sleep soundly now, knowing that there's a real opposition party capable of offering alternative and credible policies to those proposed by the current government.

Er...can't we?

And just to top it all off, came the news that all those who coughed up dosh "for the cause" are going to get a personal thank you...from the overspending man who got the party into the mess in the first place.

Not surprisingly Sarkozy was equally unable to supress his emotions and turned to...where else but Twitter.



Ah

Thank goodness for social networking.

Moving swiftly along, and you probably know there'll be local elections here in France next year.

Well, there's apparently something of shift in the political landscape going on in France's second largest city, Marseille.

It might have been in the news for quite different reasons over the past year, but a recent poll (and you have every right to be suspicious of these sorts of things) came up with some chilling political predictions.

The incumbent Jean-Claude Gaudin (UMP), who has been mayor for donkeys years (well since 1998 to be exact), looks set to secure a fourth mandate next year.

But it's what's happening behind him that's of interest

Latest figures show that the far-right Front National (FN) candidate, Stéphane Ravier, could well beat the Socialist party into second place - forcing a three-way second round battle.

Back in 2008 Ravier secured just nine per cent of the vote. Currently he's at around 25 per cent.

There are of course a number of (local) factors to take into account - not least of which is that the Socialist party hasn't yet named its candidate.

It's still dilly-dallying around with a primary for which there are six candidates including government minister Marie-Arlette Carlotti and the outspoken senator Samia "bring the army into Marseille to help out" Ghali.

Maybe future polls will show a reverse trend for the FN once the Socialist party has got its house in order...maybe they won't.

The mouthwatering possibility of a three-way second round fight will, of course, delight the FN's leader, Marine Le Pen.

From a party which builds its foundations on the cult of personality (and some pretty abject beliefs) back to one which is seriously lacking character and backbone.

The Socialist party of course.

Mind you, the prime minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, is trying...in both senses of the word.

screenshot from Les Guignols de l'info

After his rousing speech to close the party's summer conference a couple of weeks ago (remember his nonsensical gesticulation which looked as though he was trying so hard to put into practice something he had learned in a video training exercise) Ayrault now wants to project the image of a tough guy.

Er.

He has seemingly discovered a way to prevent those nasty Americans and Britons from spying on what the government here is up to.

Ayrault has apparently sent a three-page letter to ministers telling them to be careful with what sort of information they share via their smartphones and tablets.

And how do we know this? Well from that very letter, a copy of which the weekly news magazine L'Express managed to...um...procure and  publish.

Hey. France's "allies" don't need high tech programmes to discover what the country's movers and shakers are up to. They can just wait for the French media to publish a story.

Finally, two words for you. "Philippe Martin".

Who?

You know, the minister of the environment and the man who was given the job after his predecessor, Delphine Batho, was unceremoniously fired in July.

Poor M. Martin seems to have got himself into a bit of a pickle this week and it's all to do with diesel: not the Italian design company, rather the stuff that many motorists in France still pour into their cars.

In 2012, 72.9% of cars sold in France were diesel.

The Greens (the Socialist party's "partner" in government, although nobody really seems to understand why) have been pointing out for some time the health and environmental risks attached to diesel fuel and had (they thought) secured a firm commitment that there would be an increase in the price at the pump.

Since the mid-sixties successive governments have kept the price of diesel down by levying a far lower tax.

The tradition apparently began as a way "to foster economic activity, knowing that at the time diesel was the only fuel used by farmers, road haulage companies and business in general."

A diesel dilemma of sorts - and one you can trust this government to tackle with its usual clarity.
Enter M. Martin.

First up he informed a press conference that in the 2014 budget, ""there would be no provision relating specifically to what might be called the fiscal convergence of diesel and regular unleaded petrol."

A government colleague, Alain Vidalies - the junior minister in charge of relations with the parliament - interpreted that as meaning what everyone else had understood, namely that the idea had been shelved. And he said as much in an interview.

With the Greens frothing and furious at the apparent "betrayal", the environment minister was then forced to back pedal with an explanation which...well...shed little light on what had been or hadn't been decided.

"I'm not saying that the door has been closed on whether there will be an increase in the price of diesel," he said.

"I do not know and I can not say."

Bravo M Martin. That just about sums it up doesn't it?

Bon week-end.