Poll shows "Sarko revival" gathers momentum - among UMP party supporters

We all know how much French politicians seem to love opinion polls.

Well, here's one that'll have the former president Nicolas Sarkozy grinning from ear to ear, at least in terms of the level of support he has within his "political family" the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP).

It's an exclusive (aren't they always?) survey carried out by Ifop on behalf of the national radio station Europe 1 and the daily newspaper Le Figaro to gauge the impact of Sarkozy's 45-minute TV interview with the channel's prime time weekend news anchor Laurent Delahousse on Sunday.

And the result?

A resounding win for Sarkozy, as far as, UMP supporters were concerned, in the party's leadership battle due to be put to a vote among members on November 29, with a second round scheduled a week later should no candidate secure a majority.

At the moment, that second round doesn't look as though it'll be necessary as the poll shows Sarkozy (at 75 per cent) to be way ahead of his rivals Bruno Le Maire (16 per cent) and Hervé Mariton (2 per cent) as far as UMP supporters.

(screenshot Ifop poll for Europe 1 and Le Figaro)

And the future looks bright for Sarkozy in terms of his popularity among UMP members should he decide to run for the party's nomination to be its presidential candidate in 2017.

The poll has Sarkozy at 65 per cent with his nearest rival Alain Juppé at 23 per cent and the "also-rans" François Fillon and Xavier Bertrand at seven and two per cent respectively.

Once again those figures are only a reflection of the Sarkozy's popularity among the party's supporters - and even then 28 per cent of them

But it's not all good news for Sarkozy.

The general electorate still considers Juppé (at 33 per cent) to be the party's best candidate in the 2017 presidential election ahead of Sarkozy (26 per cent).

And although UMP members will, of course, ultimately decide who'll run (and remember Sarkozy hasn't officially confirmed he'll seek the party's nomination) it'll be the French as a whole who decide the best man or woman for the job.

A couple of other factors to consider as well are other polls released recently showing that the far-right Front National leader, Marine Le Pen, would make it through to a second round run-off in 2017 - no matter who would be her opponents in the first round, along with another (carried out before Sunday's interview) showing that 60 per cent of the French "disapproved" of Sarkozy's comeback.

And let's not forget the judicial enquiries which could "continue to dog" the success of the so-called "Sarko revival".

One thing's for certain, more polls - many more of them - over the coming months will allow those "in the know" to interpret and analyse to their hearts' delight.

Anyway, for the moment,  for you number crunchers out there, the full Ifop poll results and the methodology can be found here.

Happy reading!

Oh, and because a healthy slice of satire never did any harm, here's Monday's edition of Les Guignols de l'info on Canal + with (among other things) its own particular take on that televised interview and Sarkozy's comeback.

Now that, you can really enjoy.

Les Guignols du 22/09 - L'interview de Nicolas Sarkozy

Let's all say a prayer - for same sex marriage

Or how a majority of French favour same-sex marriage but the Catholic church doesn't - of course.

In fact it has urged congregations to pray that the government "sees the light" over the matter.

It must have been sheer coincidence don't you think?

The very day that the Catholic church in France asked its faithful to "pray for (traditional) family values" a poll was published showing that an ever-increasing majority of the French are in favour of same-sex marriage.

Cardinal André Vingt-trois, Archbishop of Paris (screenshot YouTube video)

The poll, conducted by Ifop and published by the online magazine  La lettre de l'opinion showed that 65 per cent are in favour of two guys or two gals being allowed legally to tie the knot.

That's continuing a trend over the past decade and a two point progression over a similar poll conducted a year ago.

Oh yes attitudes have changed - well at least those of the public at large. Back in 1996 only 48 per cent of those questioned were in favour.

And the same is true - to a slightly lesser extent - for the other (linked) issue which the government is expected to address with legislation tabled next year - namely that of same-sex couples being given the right to adopt.

In 1996 it had the thumbs up from 33 per cent of French. The latest poll puts it at 53 per cent.

Thankfully though for those whose hackles might be raised at very idea of such an unnatural and antisocial act becoming (shush, don't tell anyone) law, there's always the Catholic church to be relied on to uphold the moral wellbeing of the French.

And it did itself proud on Assumption Day, with the reading out during services in churches across the country of a  "Prayer for France".

Penned by the wonderfully named Cardinal Andre Vingt-Trois, the Archbishop of Paris, the prayer called for churchgoers "to pray for newly elected officials to put their sense of common good over the pressure to meet special demands”.

Hmmn.

Subtle.

And just in case the message wasn't coming across loud and clear there was also mention of children and that they "cease to be objects of the desires and conflicts of adults (fair enough, nobody is going to argue with that surely)" and "fully benefit from the love of a father and a mother”.


Well.

Er, yes. Quite.

Very enlightened.

You can read the full text of the prayer (in French) here.

Once again a demonstration that the Catholic church is bang up-to-date and has its finger on the pulse of what most people believe to be right.

Still it's there to offer us all guidance in our misguided beliefs.

Let's hope the Archbishop manages to get the French back on track before they - or rather the government - commit...ooh...you know it's coming...(a lame and clumsy pun) a cardinal sin.

As a reminder, the government of Jean-Marc Ayrault is committed to introducing draft legislation on both issues some time in 2013.
Over to you Aretha.

Amen.

French presidential election 2012 - too many opinion polls - says survey

Now there's a headline that's bound to shock.

How could anyone imagine for one moment that the French would feel that way about opinion polls?

After all in the run-up to the first round in this year's presidential elections there were only 375 according to the Commission des sondages, the regulatory body which, as its name suggests, oversees opinion polls.

One of many, many opinion polls (screenshot BFM TV)

That figure is a record (surprise, surprise) far outstripping the total number in both rounds during recent presidential elections; 293 in 2007, 193 in 2002 and 111 in 1981.

And the commission sure has its work cut out with newspapers, television and radio constantly turning to the likes of BVA, CSA, Harris, Ifop, Ipsos, Opinion Way and TNS-sofres to question French voting intentions.

In a world that's far from being perfect those conducting opinion polls seem to be...well even less perfect.

Oh yes they might be congratulating themselves at the moment on getting it "almost right" but several of them underestimated by a couple of percentage points the support for the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and others overestimated for the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

The numbers aren't so dramatic according to pollsters who always give themselves that all so important "margin of error" but that doesn't stop the French from being fed up with the frequency of published polls and the perceived impact they have on voting intentions.

That's according to - of all things of course - a poll.

You just can't get away from them can you?

Even though talking to anyone on the street in France would probably give you much the same result, that would only be anecdotal of course and lacking the "objectivity" of the poll conducted by Ifop.

Anyway, according to this, in a manner of speaking, "poll of polls" 63 per cent (of those questioned) think the media publish too many of them and 60 per cent believe they have an influence on the way people vote.

But here's the thing.

By and large those questioned only consider polls can influence the way other people vote; only 15 per cent say their choice can be swayed.

As far as Frédéric Dabi, the general deputy director of Ifop is concerned, that's proof that polls have a value without distorting the outcome.

(you might need to read the following quote a few times because it seems like a classic case of doublespeak)

"Even if that percentage (believing polls can influence the way people vote) isn't negligible, the fact that the overwhelming majority believes that the surveys do not affect their vote undermines the whole discussion about the influence of polls," he says.

"It's the sort of debate that occurs every time a party or a candidate is in trouble."

Right. Understood.

So 375 opinion polls which reflect (more or less) voting intentions without having an impact on the outcome in the first round and more - many more - to follow in the second.

Whoopee!

Wall Street Journal opinion piece renames Sarkozy "Nicolas Le Pen"

French president Nicolas Sarkozy might have gained a lead for the first time over his main opponent, the Socialist party's candidate François Hollande, in the first round of the presidential elections is April.

Nicolas Sarkozy's speech at Villepinte rally (screenshot from YouTube video)

That's what the most recent of many (many) polls, this time carried out by Ifop.

But that didn't impress the writer of an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal who launched a scathing assessment of Sarkozy's campaigning tactics and in particular his recent remarks on TV that France had "too many foreigners" and his threat during a rally at the weekend to suspend this country's participation in Schengen, if elected.

"Cynical", "xenophobic"and 'ugly" were just a few of the words used to describe a policy which the opinion writer said - not surprisingly probably for those who've been watching event unfold here - was an ill-disguised attempt to woo those who might feel inclined to vote for Marine Le Pen's far-right Front National.

Take a read. Here's the link.

It's not exactly long. It's well worth it.

And it has to be said, it's spot on.

Some within Sarkozy's supposedly centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire, (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP) would doubtlessly leap up in public defence of his tactics.

But surely there must be a seemingly silent number among UMP ranks who are privately horrified by the lengths to which their candidate will go to be re-elected.

Politics doesn't have to be so disgusting, does it?

Apparently so.

"Right to die" campaign targets French presidential candidates

Wednesday sees the launch of a campaign by the L'Association pour le droit de mourir dans la dignité (ADMD) to persuade some of the French presidential candidates to rethink their positions on euthanasia.

ADMD campaign Nicolas Sarkozy (admd.net)

ADMD campaign Marine Le Pen (admd.net)

ADMD campaign François Bayrou (admd.net)

In what the French media is describing as a campaign meant to shock, the association uses retouched images of three presidential candidates, all of whom are opposed to legislation which would, in the words of ADMD, "allow active assistance to those who wish to die".

François Bayrou, Marine Le Pen and Nicolas Sarkozy are all featured, ill in hospital beds and each of them is asked the question, "Do we have to put you in such a position to change your views on euthanasia."

For the association showing each of the three candidates in a position in which they were clearly suffering would "force them to reflect on the important issue of individual freedom" - in other words the right to decide.

While the images are definitely striking, the campaign is not one meant to shock but to change the opinion of the three candidates on the issue of the right to die, according to the president of ADMD, Jean-Luc Romero.

"We're all going to die at some point, but sometimes politicians behave as though they don't know that," he told RTL radio.

"There are millions of French who are regularly confronted with seeing someone in a hospital bed and they don't find it shocking," he continued.

"We wanted to choose the three candidates who were quite adamant that they were against introducing legislation that would allow people to die with dignity."

The campaign is part of an attempt by ADMD to raise an issue, which as far as Romero is concerned, has its place as part of the presidential debate.

At the end of the month the association will hold a rally in Paris and a conference to which it will invite all the presidential candidates.

Is the campaign really going to change the minds or policies of politicians who have already explained why they're against euthanasia?

Is it shocking and perhaps in bad taste?

Or is it a reminder that, if you believe an Ifop poll carried out for ADMD last year, politicians in France are well behind the current thinking of the population at large when it comes to legislation.

French toilet habits - just in case you were interested!

When you visit someone at home in France and they tell you they're nipping off to the loo (forget about why they would inform you in the first place) don't imagine it's just a case of relieving themselves.

Far from it, if a recent survey conducted by the polling organisation Ifop (L'Institut français d'opinion publique) on behalf of a loo paper manufacturer is to be believed.

Almost half of those questioned - 44 per cent to be precise - said they spent time "sitting on the throne" quietly reflecting...and reading.

Before you think flicking through the pages of a favourite magazine is all the French do while they're supposed to be going about their "business", think again, as eight per cent of those questioned also admitted that they used the "moment" to make a telephone call.

And 28 per cent think it's a place in the house which "deserves even closer attention" which is not too much of a surprise considering that 56 per cent of respondents said they made a mental note of how others' maintained their WCs.

You have been warned.

So now you know what the French get up to in the privacy of the smallest room in the house.

Fascinating!

French polls: Rama Yade's popularity and Sarkozy's poor showing

Another week another poll or at least so it seems here as the French have been asked yet again to name their most popular political figure.

And topping the list is none other than the junior minister for sports, Rama Yade.

The poll comes courtesy of the weekly news magazine, Le Point.

Once a month it publishes its ranking according to a survey conducted on its behalf by Ispos "to measure the popularity of the major players in the political arena".

In the latest poll, Yade has a 61 per cent approval rating. Just behind her is the Socialist mayor of Paris, Bertrand Delanoë, (59 per cent) and in third place another Socialist politician in the shape the head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn (54 per cent).

All right so opinion polls are open to interpretation and they are perhaps just snapshots, if you will, of current popular opinion rather than giving the full picture.

But Yade's obvious and sustained popularity must be giving her bosses the proverbial food for thought especially as it's the fourth month in a row that the Ipsos-Le Point poll has had her topping the list.

It almost seems as though Yade's popularity among the public increases as often as, and in parallel to, the criticism she receives from government and her centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP) party colleagues for refusing to toe the line or be a team player as in the recent example of her opposition to a government policy to abolish tax breaks for sportsmen and women.

As the French media puts it, "The more she is the target of criticism, the more popular she is."

One dark cloud perhaps for the 32-year-old is that her popularity among supporters of the UMP party is apparently on the decline.

So Yade on the up and up - or at least enjoying a high level of support among the general French population - but what of her big boss the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy?

Well, the latest poll appears to confirm the slump in his approval ratings over the last month at just 39 per cent.

But the news probably won't come as too much of a surprise to him.

After all just last week in another poll carried out this time by Ifop on behalf of the weekly news and celebrity lifestyle magazine, Paris Match, only 39 per cent of those questioned thought he was doing a good job, compared to 45 per cent at the end of September.

And the French president, who reached the mid-point of his five-year mandate last week also admitted in an interview that he had made a number of mistakes during his presidency.

They included his highly criticised break just after his election aboard the yacht of his millionaire friend Vincent Bolloré, which he conceded had been an "error of taste", the choice of Patrick Devedjian to head the UMP party in 2007 and most recently support for the candidature (now withdrawn) of his second son, Jean, for the top job at l'Etablissement public d'aménagement du quartier d'affaires de la Défense (Epad), the development agency for business district of La Defense on the outskirts of Paris.

It wasn't the first time during his tenure that Sarkozy has acknowledged mistakes or publicly expressed his "mea culpa".

And perhaps the more humble approach will see an improvement in his approval ratings when the next slew of opinion polls, of which the French media seems to be so fond, are published.

Watch this space.