Nicolas Sarkozy quits politics…again

So the former French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has promised to leave politics.

His announcement came on the eve of his defeat in the first round of the primary to choose the candidate from the centre-right in next year’s presidential elections.

Nicolas Sarkozy (screenshot BBC News)

Sarkozy finished a distant third to his former prime minister during his five-year spell in office from 2002-2007, François Fillon, and blast-from-the-past hopeful (and another former prime minister) Alain Juppé.

Yes, how ironic that Fillon,  the man Sarkozy had described (apparently off-the-record) as his “assistant while the boss, that’s me” back in August 2007 “romped” to victory with just over 44 per cent of the four million who turned out to vote with Juppé (28.6) second and Sarkozy third (20.6).

The top two will now go head to head in a second round of voting on Sunday 27 November.

An unusually subdued and dignified Sarkozy thanked just about everyone possible during his speech in which he conceded defeat and gave his support in next Sunday’s round to his former “assistant” - moving many of his fans (because the cult of personality is and was at the core of Sarkozy’s approach to politics) to tears.

Sniff, sniff.

Just a shame the 62-year-old hadn’t been a little more noble and distinguished earlier in the day when he went to vote.

While Fillon, Juppé and the other four candidates had been happy to stand patiently in line while waiting to vote in their respective constituencies, Sarkozy, presumably not wanting to rub shoulders for too long with the (well-heeled) hoi polloi of the swanky XVI arrondissement in Paris, jumped the queue.

Jumped the queue.

Surely the way he will be lovingly remembered and treasured by his devotees.

And as for stepping out of the limelight to "have a life with more passion privately and less publicly”…cue that interview in March 2012 with Jean-Jacques Bourdin perhaps.

Christine Boutin’s latest Twitter gaffe - lacking dignity and class

You know some people (politicians in particular) should not be allowed anywhere near a microphone. It only encourages them to utter the most absurd ideas in the mistaken belief that they’re making sense.

Similarly they should think twice - nay thrice - before allowing themselves to share the benefit of their “thoughts” on social media platforms.

Nadine Morano springs to mind. A classic example of someone who’s “good” for a soundbite although many would probably wish she were less of a buffoon.

And then there’s Christine Boutin.

Sigh.

Another “serial offender”.

(caricature of) Christine Boutin “La vache qui prie” - although there’s none of the “tendrement conne” in her latest Tweet (screenshot from Canal + Le Grand Journal video, February, 2016).

Yes, the ex-housing minister and founder and former president of the Christian Democratic Party, well-known for her opposition to civil partnership (for two men or two women) and same-sex marriage (and currently appealing a fine for having said that homosexuality was an “abomination”) has taken to the Twittersphere with her usual “panache”.

This time around though, there’s none of the eye-rolling “here she goes again” reaction. Rather she has committed what many consider to be a monumentally offensive gaffe.

As you might know the former French president, Jacques Chirac, has been hospitalised.

The 83-year-old reportedly has a lung infection, the most recent in a series of health scares.

His wife, Bernadette, has also been admitted, suffering from exhaustion.

A number of French politicians, including the front runners for Les Républicains primary Alain Juppé and Nicolas Sarkozy, as well as the current French president, François Hollande, have “expressed their support” for Chirac and his wife.

Enter stage right Boutin, finger-twitching presumably to announce in just three words on Twitter the death of Jacques Chirac - remembering to use the hashtag of course!

And how did she react when faced with the obvious truth that she had got it all wrong (yet again).

By defending herself in claiming that the information had come from “ a reliable source” and that she had shared it because, in her words, “I think the French are waiting for it, as shown by the buzz it has generated.”

Nothing like an apology!

And Boutin’s response was nothing like and apology.

What class.

Nicolas Sarkozy’s non-shock presidential election candidacy announcement

Well that’s a turn up for the books.

Former French president, Nicolas Sarkozy has announced that he’s to run in the primary to choose the candidate who’ll represent the Right and Centre-Right at next year’s presidential elections in France.

Screenshot Nicolas Sarkozy Twitter

Yes, the same man who, back in 2012 assured viewers, during an interview with Jean-Jacques Bourdin on BFMTV, that he would “retire from politics” if he lost that year’s presidential elections, has joined 14 other hopefuls - a decision which surprises absolutely nobody.


Archive 2012 - Quand Sarkozy assurait qu'il... par BFMTV

The announcement was the kind of political non-event which pretty much sums up politics in general in this country, and the tradition whereby those defeated in earlier elections, along with disgraced politicians, attempt a comeback.

You know, “Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose”. Or in the case of French politics, the same old faces keep popping up all the time.

Take a look at just a few of those on the list for the primary.

Ex prime minister Alain Juppé who has made his way back from a criminal conviction for abuse of public funds to become the man most likely to be able to beat Sarkozy.

Jean-François Copé, the former president of the Centre Right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a popular movement, (which under Sarkozy’s second stint as chairman renamed itself Les Republicans) who was forced to resign from that post following the Bygmalion invoices scandal (about which he knew nothing of course).

François Fillon - another former prime minister (under Sarkozy). Squeaky clean (in French political terms although there was that “storm in a teacup” scandal in 2014 when he reportedly encouraged one of François Hollande’s closest advisers at the Elysée Palace, Jean-Pierre Jouyet, to “accelerate” judicial proceedings against Sarkozy) but rather…er…dull.

Nadine Morano - no criminal convictions - but plenty of - let’s be polite - “barmy” Tweets (she’s an adept at Social Media) and controversial statements (such as France being  “a Judeo-Christian country, of white race")

Then there’s…

No, to list all of them would increase the yawn factor inexorably. And besides, with Sarkozy’s entry into the race, some will more than likely drop out.

Ah yes - that entry. Long expected and accompanied by a book (of course) “Tout pour la France” in which he outlines his “ideas” for the future of this country, and a scheduled appearance on prime time TV news.

Sarkozy has his work cut out. He might well be popular among his supporters (pretty much a foregone conclusion as it would be disastrous if he weren’t) but, if those never-ending opinion polls are to be believed, among the general population he’s unpopular and a majority have said they would not like to see him stand.

Oh well, too late now.

Affaire à suivre

Alain Juppé calls on UMP supporters to vote against Front National in Doubs by-election

No, not the most thrilling or exciting of headlines at face value.

But rather telling on a number of levels about the state of the opposition Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP).

First some background.

Last weekend saw the first round in voting in a by-election in the département of Doubs in eastern France.

It was to contest the seat made available by the forced resignation of the former finance minister, Pierre Moscovici who has since gone on to a cushy number at the higher European Commission level.

A "safe" Socialist party seat in theory.

But, as we all know, the governing Socialist party (PS) isn't exactly "flavour of the month" and the French president, François Hollande...well, although his popularity ratings increased recently after his handling of the Paris attacks in January) the road to a possible second term in 2017 remains a difficult one.

Add to that the disarray that still exists within the UMP and the far-right Front National's (FN) leader, Marine Le Pen's, strategy of combining disaffection with the two major parties with her own populist appeal, and it wasn't suprising that the FN's candidate, Sophie Montel, topped last Sunday's first round of voting in the by-election.

What was unexpected though - certainly for the UMP - was that its candidate, Charles Demouge, only finished third behind Montel and a couple of points adrift of the Socialst party's Frédéric Barbier.

UMP eliminated and Montel to face Barbier in a second round run-off.

And that has put the UMP in something of a quandary - although it shouldn't really.

Its recently-elected leader (a certain Nicolas Sarkozy - you'll surely have heard of him) had promised "unity" in an attempt to resolve party divisions of recent years.

But his slow reaction to the first round vote in Doubs, coupled with some of the party's leading members clearly stating the very opposite of what he is most likely to propose, has once against highlighted the UMP's discord.

The party's number two, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, appeared on BFM TV on Monday morning to give her reaction to the Doubs ballot and how would recommend UMP supporters cast their votes in the second round.

"I would choose to vote for the candidate that opposed the Front National," she said, admitting that it was probably a minority position within the UMP but one she defended nonetheless.

"The Socialist party leaves the country 'desperate'," she said. "But the Front National would disfigure France."



And joining her - even though he had maintained before the first round that he wouldn't comment on the outcome, was Alain Juppé.

Writing on his blog, Juppé clearly called for UMP supporters to cast their vote in the second round to the Socialist party's candidate to "block" the FN.

"Our main political rival now is the FN.," he wrote.

"Whether it can reach power is no longer a hypothetical question and in my opinion this would be a catastrophe for our country.”

Actually his words were much more powerful that that - you can read the full text here.

Alain Juppé (screenshot Europe 1 interview)

Juppé, of course, is a declared candidate in the UMP's primary to determine its 2017 presidential candidate.

A likely opponent and his main one - if you believe political pundits - is expected to be Sarkozy who so far seems to be in favour of the "neither, nor" policy of refusing to endorse any of the two remaining candidates and instead allow (UMP) voters to decide for themselves.

Yes - the courage of convictions and political principles is astounding.

And he's taking plenty of time to come up with a grand design which might well be ignored by those (few) who bother to vote anyway.

Montel might have officially come top in the first round of voting but the big winner was the 60 per cent abstention rate.

Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé - the battle of the opinion polls

Another day, another poll - and one involving the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy...of course.

Well it is France after all.

Yes, there are other things happening in France - and not just in the world of political surveys.

Sarkozy, for example, is busy "pleasing all" (or trying to)  and attempting to unite the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) as he puts together a team resembling a shadow cabinet (divisions included) since winning, in less convincing fashion than he had probably anticipated, the battle for the leadership of his party last weekend.

But the poll looks to the future (er...don't they always, in so far as they're asking speculative questions?) and in particular the expected (political) handbags at dawn "combat" to become the UMP's candidate for the 2017 presidential campaign.

Anyway the latest poll, carried out - just before the UMP leadership election - by YouGov on behalf of the all-news channels i>Télé and Le Huffington Post.

It's essentially to show in order of popularity, how French politicians (or at least their images) rate with the public - "about which of these - answer as many times as you wish - do have a positive opinion?"

And the outcome is that the big winners in the past month (the so-called "Tops"), in terms of how they're perceived by the French electorate at large are Bruno Le Maire and the man who could well push Sarkozy all the way in the expected primary to be the UMP's next presidential candidate, Alain Juppé.

Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé at a meeting in Bordeaux, November 2014 (screenshot AFP report)

The tables aren't exactly easy to read (when are these things ever - go to this link and open the pdf file) but the Huff Post neatly sums up the survery's findings with Juppé and Le Maire both on the upswing (their "Tops" and Sarkozy losing a few points 'and appearing among the "Flops").

Oh yes...and look at who's at number two on the "positive" list - Marine Le Pen.

Just for a bit of fun, take a look also at the second table which shows those politicians who most engender a negative image (the Flops).

Right up there towards the top (just after Jean-Marie Le Pen and ahead of Jean-François Copé and Marine Le Pen) is Sarkozy - surely adding to the general feeling that he is able to unite and divide opinion (a little like Marine Le Pen) at the same time but one thing's for certain...he doesn't leave anyone indifferent.

Oh yes...and there's a slight increase in the popularity of the current president, François Hollande, and the prime minister, Manuel Valls. But not enough to be of any real significance.

They really need a better PR team - or perhaps policies that actually work...whoops.

Has Nicolas Sarkozy shot himself in foot with calls to repeal France's same-sex marriage law?

Well it sure looks that way - at least partially.

The former French president finally came off the fence, so-to-speak, when he announced at the weekend that the same-sex marriage law in France should be repealed.

Nicolas Sarkozy at Sens Commun meeting (screenshot i>Télé report)

His comments came during a meeting held by Sens Commun (Common sense), a fringe movement founded within the opposition centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) and one which had, and continues to have, close ties to the "Manif pour tous".

If that sounds familiar, it'll be because "Manif pour tous" was the organisation which most vociferously opposed same-sex marriage legislation (and joint adoption) and organised several large scale demonstrations in the run-up to the April 2013 parliamentary debates and votes.

In fact "Manif pour tous" is still going strong, campaigning under its current president, Ludovine de La Rochère, for family values and against assisted reproductive technology, surrogate mothers, same-sex couples having the right to marry and/or adopt children.

Yes, it's an organisation with its sights set on the past and not on the here-and-now and certainly not the future (unless it resembles the past).

Anyway, Sens Commun pulled off something of a coup by having all three candidates for the UMP leadership (to be decided by UMP members' votes in a fortnight's time) turn up to a weekend meeting.

First up (and the three men didn't appear on stage together but rather one after the other) was Bruno Le Maire, jeered when he announced he would not seek to scrap the law that had been passed allowing same-sex marriage.

Next up Hervé Mariton, a firm opponent to same-sex marriage and roundly applauded for his stance.

Finally it was Sarkozy's turn in front of an audience far from being impartial and eager (too eager perhaps) to hear him tell them what they wanted to hear.

And Sarkozy was happy to oblige - at first in words that seemed somewhat coded.

"Let's be clear about this, the Taubira law (for same-sex marriage, named after the justice minister, Christiane Taubira, who steered the legislation through parliament) needs to be completely rewritten from the top to the bottom," he said, happy to oblige in a language he thought would mollify those present.

But then as the chant of "Repeal, repeal, repeal," from the audience became stronger, Sarkozy  hardened his tone.

"All right, if you would rather that the law be repealed and another passed...in French, that's saying the same thing. The result is the same. But hey, if it make you happy, then frankly it doesn't cost much."

Rapturous applause from those listening. Sarkozy had said exactly what they wanted him to.

Nicolas Sarkozy propose d'abroger la loi Taubira - Le 15/11/2014 à 20h00

He might not be against extending the civil partnership rights (PACS) that exist for same-sex couples, but he wants to rewrite the law on marriage.

Hey ho. That'll be an easy one to get past the Conseil Constitutionnel - withdrawing a right of equality that exists to replace it with...something less.

So how far has Sarkozy shot himself in the foot?

Well only moderately.

Firstly, Sarkozy has made a mockery of the claim that he represents the unifying saviour of the party because some high ranking members and supporters of his push to become UMP leader, immediately responded that they were not in favour of repealing the legislation allowing same-sex marriage.

Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, Sarkozy's spokeperson during the 2012 presidential campaign said repeal was "neither desirable, nor possible".

The mayor of Nice and a minister during Sarkozy's "reign" as president, Christian Estrosi, said there should be no going back on the law and that it had been a "step forward".

And much the same sentiments from other former ministers, Frédéric Lefebvre, Valérie Pécresse and most notably Alain Juppé, a declared candidate for the UMP's primary to choose its candidate for the 2017 presidential election and the biggest threat to Sarkozy should he decide to throw his hat into that particular battle.

Even - and this will surely have come as a shock to many - one of Sarkozy's most fervent supporters, Nadine Morano, seemed unhappy with his statement, tweeting (as is her preferred method of communication) "The French had expected other priorities than the rewriting of the Taubira law."

Secondly Sarkozy was seriously misreading public opinion at large.

Same-sex marriage - yes or no - might have been a subject of debate over 18 months ago.

But the vote has passed and recent surveys show a majority of French (68 per cent) are in favour of same-sex marriage and 53 per cent believe couples of the same sex should be allowed to adopt - together.

That said, Sarkozy's stance is unlikely to have done him any harm with UMP members. He'll still more than likely romp home to win the leadership contest.

But it has displayed once again his predisposition for telling people (in this case an audience composed largely of those opposing same-sex marriage) what they wanted to hear without really having the (constitutional) tools to deliver.

It might not be easy understanding Bernadette Chirac...but

If you've been following French politics recently, it will surely not have escaped your notice that Bernadette Chirac has been making the headlines.

Bernadette Chirac (screenshot Europe 1 January 2014)

Her outspoken (and some would say "fervent") support for Nicolas Sarkozy in his campaign to become leader of the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) and possible run to be the party's candidate in the 2017 presidential elections has most probably both amused and bemused many French.

Especially as it has been accompanied by unapologetic salvoes fired at Alain Juppé, the man who would most likely present Sarkozy with the strongest challenge in the planned primary to choose the party's candidate for 2017 but of whom Bernadette said, "he's a very unwelcoming person. He doesn't win over people, friends and potential voters."

In a recent piece in Le Figaro entitled "Dans la tête de Bernadette Chirac" writer and journalist, Irina de Chikoff, gives some insight into the behaviour of France's former first lady.

And it certainly seems that Bernadette, wearing her trademark sunglasses whenever she's being interviewed, is far from being the cantankerous old lady set on saying and doing anything and everything to annoy her husband, Jacques Chirac, French president from 1995 to 2007 of course.

The time when Bernadette dutifully (and most often quietly) remained in the shadows of her husband is over and now she feels able to speak freely.

But it's not something that has happened overnight.

Instead, it's a process that began, by Bernadette's own admission,  back in 1997 when Chirac dissolved parliament a year before its term was up thinking the French would support him and return a majority allowing the re-appointment of Juppé as prime minister.

Chirac though had misread the electorate and it was a left-wing coalition of the Socialist party, Communists and Greens which obtained a majority, enabling Lionel Jospin to become prime minister and forcing five years of cohabitation or what Chirac described as "paralysis" as his political influence on domestic policy was "constrained" - to put it mildly.

"I was absolutely against the idea of dissolution and I told him," she admitted to Laurent Delahousse during a recent edition of "Un jour, un destin" on France 2, dedicated to France's former first lady.

Bernadette's  dislike and distrust of Juppé is as deep-rooted as her husband's admiration and support for the man he has described as "the best among us".

And her support for Sarkozy?

Well for Chikoff, it's not a case of Bernadette trying to annoy her husband.

Rather she sees in Sarkozy the same sort of energy and resilience Chirac once had.

"She holds no grudges against him (Sarkozy) - well almost none - for the times when he might have been politically disloyal to her husband," writes Chikoff.

"She would have liked to have had a son like Nicolas and that's why she's prepared to indulge him...as any mother would."

So, if Sarkozy wins November's battle for the leadership of the UMP and decides to take a run for the party's primary, we can probably expect to here more - plenty more - from the lady behind the sunglasses.

Be prepared.



Bernadette Chirac se mobilise pour les... by Europe1fr

Nicolas Sarkozy scores poorly among French on perceived honesty ratings

Whoopee!

Yet another poll.

Yes, the country which seems to delight in publishing a legion of surveys on an almost frighteningly (well, it would be if you were really to take them seriously) basis has now explored how "honest" some of the leading lights in the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) are.

All right, to give the free daily Metronews and TF1's all-news channel LCI credit, it could well be argued that the poll, which they commissioned CLAI to carry out, has a deservedly newsworthy angle.

There's an UMP leadership contest scheduled for the end of November with former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, the favourite to beat Bruno Le Maire and Hervé Mariton, the other two declared candidates.

And of course Sarkozy, currently touring the country with his "one man show" (below is a BFM TV video report, if you're interested), is widely thought to be considering a run to be the party's candidate for the 2017 presidential election.

Should he, as many predict, eventually decide to enter the party's planned primary (some time in 2016) he'll find himself up against the likes of Alain Juppé and François Fillon.

Nicolas Sarkozy "One man show" (screenshot BFM TV)

So, a poll to measure how honest the French perceive UMP politicians (in this case) to be, would seem timely...if not exactly a good use of...time (and money that is).

Surely nobody - or at least, very few - would rate politicians high in the honesty stakes.

After all politicians, of whatever persuasion, are famous for saying one thing when running for office and then another when faced with the reality of having been elected.

Plus they seldom take responsibility for mistakes, errors of judgement, failure for policies to deliver et yadda, yadda, yadda. It's always someone else's fault (or that of the global economy, which might well be partially true) and besides it's far easier to pass the buck.

Anyway, all that set to one side, none of the UMP's leading lights does especially well - at a national level - in the honesty perception poll.

Among those surveyed, Juppé came out top with 46 per cent, followed by Le Maire at 45 per cent and Fillon with 44 per cent.

Mind you, they were all streets ahead of Sarkozy who scored...wait for it...just 20 per cent.

Oh well, maybe when it comes to politics, "honesty" really is as much of a "lonely word" as US singer Billy Joel suggested in his 1979 international hit of the same name.

And besides, if the French population at large doesn't expect its politicians to be particularly honest (ooh - now that sounds like good material for yet another survey, surely) maybe this poll is nothing for the former president to worry about.

Fancy a little Billy Joel to finish off?

Jacques and Bernadette Chirac's political devide

It must be...er...interesting in the Chirac household at the moment.

The former French president, Jacques, and his wife, Bernadette, are apparently at odds over who to support in the primary to choose the candidate for the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) in the 2017 presidential elections.

Yep. It might seem a long way off, but hey ho, that hasn't stopped the political posturing.

Mind you, it's not exactly Jacques who's saying anything.

Rather it's the former first lady, Bernadette, who's taking potshots at one of the candidates already declared, Alain Juppé.

Bernadette Chirac (screenshot Europe 1 interview, January 2014)

Bernadette is a fervent supporter of Nicolas Sarkozy - both to head the UMP when the party chooses its leader in November and in the race to be its candidate for 2017, even though he hasn't officially declared his interest in running (although only a fool would vote against him doing so).

And the 81-year-old apparently has little or no time for Juppé - widely seen as Sarkozy's main challenger should he actually decide to seek the party's nomination.

"Juppé? What has Juppé got in common with Sarkozy?" she said when interviewed at the weekend.

"Alain Juppé is a very unwelcoming person. He doesn't win over people, friends and potential voters," she continued.

"You know, when important elections are approaching, you need someone with exceptional qualities. There are very few people around like that. I know, because my husband was president twice," she added.

Surely a clear indication that, as far as she's concerned, Juppé lacks the "exceptional qualities" which presumably Sarkozy has.

That might be Bernadette's assessment of Juppé's qualities - or lack thereof. But her husband apparently doesn't share her opinions.

Chirac didn't actually say as much himself.

Instead it was Juppé who revealed that the former president, under whom he served as prime minister from 1995-1997, was as loyal to him now as he had been in the past.

"Bernadette Chirac's remarks don't concern me at all," he said.

"The image of being seen as 'cold' is something that belongs to the past and there are stereotypes that always stay with you. Do you think the people of Bordeaux (the city of which he is mayor) consider me to be 'cold'?" he continued.

"I saw Jacques Chirac recently. We spent a great together and he confirmed his feeling that I was 'probably one of the best among us' (a reference to what Chirac had said of him back in the early 1990s)

And finishing with style and flourish, Juppé added, "You know, Jacques Chirac is loyal. He doesn't change his mind. And besides, I don't really want to get involved in matrimonial differences - whatever they might be."



As a timely aside, Juppé, who received an 18-month suspended sentence and a 10-year ban from running for political office (reduced to 14 months and one year respectively on appeal) in 2004 for abuse of public funds, was awarded the Press Club of France's prize for political humour 2014 on Monday for a comment which just about sums up French politics (and certainly Juppé's political career).

"In politics, it's never over. Look at me!"

Handbags at dawn - Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé

Ah. Politics is such a fickle profession.

"Friends" come and "friends" go - as befits the occasion.

And the odd feud along the way, seemingly forgetten when the two (or more) protagonists are reconciled is...well, frankly, par for the course.

Right now though, there's trouble apparently brewing (yet again) for the opposition centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) as certain figures jostle for position ahead of the party's planned primary (some time in 2016) to choose the candidate for the 2017 presidential election.

Yes, it might seem a fair distance away - and the battle for the leadership (quite a separate matter) hasn't yet taken place - but territory is already being marked in the very finest of...well, manners in which territory is traditionally marked in the animal kingdom.

Remember (yet again) that the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, threw his proverbial hat into the ring for the lUMP eadership campaign last week - pitting him against two other declared contenders, Bruno Le Maire and Hervé Mariton.

And although he hasn't actually said he'll seek the party's nomination for 2017, all the talk is that is really his ultimate goal.

Should he decide to enter that particular fray, he'll find himself up against at least two other declared candidates - both of whom served under him during his time as president: François Fillon, his prime minister during five years, and Alain Juppé, who served as foreign minister for the final 15 months of Sarkozy's "reign".

While both represent a challenge to Sarkozy, it's Juppé, with his wealth of political experience (including as the former leader of the UMP 2002-2004, prime minister under Jacques Chirac 1995-1997 and twice foreign minister as well as spells at defence and environment) and popularity who probably presents the biggest danger.

Alain Juppé (screenshot from "Le Grand rendez-vous" Europe 1, September 21, 2014)

Seemingly eager to bury the hatchet (but where), or perhaps better said, dissuade him from standing...or both...during his 45-minute televised interview last weekend, Sarkozy said of Juppé, "I met him when I was 20 years old. He has become a partner, a friend and a companion. He's someone I admire greatly."

Ah. That's nice, isn't it. Quite the proverbial olive branch.

Except in private, Sarkozy has apparently been saying something quite different according to the weekly satirical newspaper Le Canard Enchaîné.

It  reminds its readers that at the beginning of September (a couple of weeks after Juppé had said he would be standing in the 2016 primary - a selection process not at all to Sarkozy's liking), Sarkozy is rumoured to have said (in private of course) that he would "kill him" (politically speaking...Juppé's response on hearing the rumour was that Sarkozy "knew where to find him").

And according to the newspaper, Sarkozy has once again been firing salvoes in private, especially over Juppé's age and "moral" lecturing.

"Juppé will be 72 years old in 2017 and has an 18 month suspended prison sentence (for abuse of public funds), behind him," he's reported to have said.

"Do you think he scares me or that he's the right person to give me a lesson in morals?"

Juppé isn't exactly a political shrinking violet though. On the contrary, he's a seasoned scrapper, albeit it with rather more humour, perhaps more cutting and incisive and certainly more refined.

While Sarkozy was explaining his reasons on France 2 on Sunday evening for his political comeback, Juppé was unveiling on his blog the sort of programme he would be putting to party members during the primary.

And on Tuesday he told BFM TV that it was clear the battle had begun.

"I know that today the match has started," he said, poking fun at the idea that Sarkozy would try to change the name of the UMP to rid it of the less than positive image it has had over the past couple of years.

"You know, everything can be changed," he said.

"Rather than call it the UMP we can rename it PMU (also the name of the state-controlled betting system, Pari mutuel urbain). If that's the change, it won't exactly be fundamental."

The war of words has begun - and the campaign (should Sarkozy eventually declare) could well prove to be a rough one.

To be continued...


Juppé sort les armes contre Sarkozy by 20Minutes

Poll shows "Sarko revival" gathers momentum - among UMP party supporters

We all know how much French politicians seem to love opinion polls.

Well, here's one that'll have the former president Nicolas Sarkozy grinning from ear to ear, at least in terms of the level of support he has within his "political family" the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP).

It's an exclusive (aren't they always?) survey carried out by Ifop on behalf of the national radio station Europe 1 and the daily newspaper Le Figaro to gauge the impact of Sarkozy's 45-minute TV interview with the channel's prime time weekend news anchor Laurent Delahousse on Sunday.

And the result?

A resounding win for Sarkozy, as far as, UMP supporters were concerned, in the party's leadership battle due to be put to a vote among members on November 29, with a second round scheduled a week later should no candidate secure a majority.

At the moment, that second round doesn't look as though it'll be necessary as the poll shows Sarkozy (at 75 per cent) to be way ahead of his rivals Bruno Le Maire (16 per cent) and Hervé Mariton (2 per cent) as far as UMP supporters.

(screenshot Ifop poll for Europe 1 and Le Figaro)

And the future looks bright for Sarkozy in terms of his popularity among UMP members should he decide to run for the party's nomination to be its presidential candidate in 2017.

The poll has Sarkozy at 65 per cent with his nearest rival Alain Juppé at 23 per cent and the "also-rans" François Fillon and Xavier Bertrand at seven and two per cent respectively.

Once again those figures are only a reflection of the Sarkozy's popularity among the party's supporters - and even then 28 per cent of them

But it's not all good news for Sarkozy.

The general electorate still considers Juppé (at 33 per cent) to be the party's best candidate in the 2017 presidential election ahead of Sarkozy (26 per cent).

And although UMP members will, of course, ultimately decide who'll run (and remember Sarkozy hasn't officially confirmed he'll seek the party's nomination) it'll be the French as a whole who decide the best man or woman for the job.

A couple of other factors to consider as well are other polls released recently showing that the far-right Front National leader, Marine Le Pen, would make it through to a second round run-off in 2017 - no matter who would be her opponents in the first round, along with another (carried out before Sunday's interview) showing that 60 per cent of the French "disapproved" of Sarkozy's comeback.

And let's not forget the judicial enquiries which could "continue to dog" the success of the so-called "Sarko revival".

One thing's for certain, more polls - many more of them - over the coming months will allow those "in the know" to interpret and analyse to their hearts' delight.

Anyway, for the moment,  for you number crunchers out there, the full Ifop poll results and the methodology can be found here.

Happy reading!

Oh, and because a healthy slice of satire never did any harm, here's Monday's edition of Les Guignols de l'info on Canal + with (among other things) its own particular take on that televised interview and Sarkozy's comeback.

Now that, you can really enjoy.

Les Guignols du 22/09 - L'interview de Nicolas Sarkozy

A prime ministerial week in French politics - present, past and...er...future?

Bienvenue! to another look back at a week in French politics and as you can see from the title, the focus this time around is on prime ministers.

Before plunging head first into the "news" though, a few words on the position itself.

It's an odd sort of role in France because it's the president who gets to appoint (and sack) the person he thinks is the best man (or on one occasion, woman) for the job.

He (or she) has to come from the majority party in parliament . That's why there have been three periods of so-called "cohabitation" since the beginning of the Fifth Republic in 1958 when the prime minister and president have come from different parties.

But the position doesn't have to go to the leader of the majority party.

Had that been the case after the 2012 presidential and parliamentary elections, François Hollande would have chosen Martine Aubry to be prime minister.

Perish the thought!

In fact, rare though it might be, the job doesn't even have to be given to an elected representative.

During his second term as president, for example, Jacques Chirac appointed career diplomat Dominique de Villepin as prime minister for two years.

Sometimes viewed as playing second fiddle to the president, the holder of the office of prime minister is (quoting from the constitution here) charged with "directing the actions of the government, being responsible for national defence and ensuring the implementation of legislation."

And oh yes, if you happen to be Jean-Marc Ayrault, practising the art of the Coué method.

Which brings us nicely to the end of the potted (with cavernous gaps admittedly) overview and allows us to get cracking with the news.

Where better to start (although you could probably think of one) than with Ayrault himself.

In an interview with the regional daily Presse-Océan - which just happens to cover the city of Nantes, where he was mayor for 23 years (ah, can't you just hear the echoes of Arnaud Montebourg's cutting comment that Ayrault "ran the country as though it were a local council"?) the prime minister was in...well...almost "Spice Boy" mode.

Yes, he seemed to have taken a little too literally the lyrics of Baby, Ginger, Posh, Scary and Sporty's 1997 hit "Spice up your life" with an "all you need is positivity" approach.

"There are positive signs that the economy is recovering," he told the paper.

"And we must do everything we can to encourage it because our priority has to be employment."

Oh change the record M. Ayrault.

Speaking of which, do you fancy some music?

No?

Tough.



Ah. That's better. Don't you all feel full of "positivity" now?

Well you'll need to if you're going to understand what's happening with the centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP).

It managed to spend the first part of the week tying itself into knots over which political direction it would or wouldn't take rather than fulfilling its role as a credible opposition.

François Fillon (screenshot BFM TV report)

And it was all down to François Fillon, Ayrault's predecessor at the Matignon.

He dropped a bit of a bombshell at the weekend saying that in next year's municipal elections, UMP supporters should vote for the "least sectarian" candidate in the second round if the party's candidate didn't make it through and it came to a straight run-off between the far-right Front National and the Socialist party.

Yikes!

What the heck was he saying?

Break with the party's policy of urging supporters to vote for neither or was he actually shifting his position?

Nobody really seemed to know and the party went into headless chicken mode as its leaders assembled to clarify policy - all agreeing that the "neither nor" strategy was the one to be followed.

Fillon even appeared in front of the cameras afterwards to repeat that he had "always been against an alliance of any sort with the FN and it had been something he had fought against all his political life" and "he had no intention of changing his position."


Fillon: "j'ai toujours combattu les alliances... par BFMTV

So. What was he up to?

Perhaps the answer lies somewhere in the grass roots support there is among UMP party  members for some of the FN's policies.

As revealed in a poll at the beginning of the week, over 70 per cent "agreed" with what Fillon had apparently said and were in favour of the FN being considered as a "normal" party.

Also, let's not forget that Fillon is campaigning to be his party's candidate in the 2017 presidential election.

By creating a "buzz", he had not only proven himself a little less colourless than some might have thought, but had made life a little more difficult for the party's leader, Jean-François Copé.

Yes, Fillon looks set to continue with his operation "Stir everything up" for the next...three years.

Wonderful!

So that's present and past dealt with. What about the future?

Well, there was bad news of sorts for the man tipped by many (including himself) to be a future prime minister (president and master of the universe), Manuel Valls.

The interior minister is no longer the country's favourite politician.

In the monthly (yes, these things really are produced that frequently) poll Ipsos conducts for Le Point on political popularity (rather like a hit parade but without the moo-sick) Alain Juppé (a past, past prime minister among many other things) ranked Number One with a song taken from his most recent album "I'm really the man who should be president but I prefer sitting on the sidelines and appearing all statesman-like".

Valls meanwhile, who had been Top of the Pops since October 2012, slipped a place without blowing so much as a gasket.

Now, if, for some peculiar reason, you would like to follow the progression (or otherwise) of your (least) favourite French politician from month to month, you can check out the baromètre de l'action politique Ipsos / Le Point here.

And finally - because it's just too difficult to resist - François Hollande's interview on TF1 with Claire Chazal...as interpreted by those folk over at Les Guignols de l'Info over at Canal +.

screenshot from Les Guignols video

Take the recent chart-topping hit single (yes music has been rather a laboured leitmotif during this piece) "Papaoutai" (Friday's French music break a couple of weeks ago) from Belgian singer-songwriter Stromae, fiddle with the lyrics and put them in the mouth of Hollande's puppet et...voilà "Emploioutai"

EMPLOIOUTAI ? Le tube du quinquennat - Les Guignols du 16/09

And that seems a suitable point at which to wish you a great weekend.

Hey up - a week in French politics with the UMP and Syria, the return of "Sarko boy" and Hollande's unflattering back-to-school photo

A hearty welcome dear reader to another look back at a week in the wonderful  world of French politics.

Are you sitting comfortably?

Then I'll begin.

This week's piece was supposed to be dedicated entirely to the centre-right opposition Union pour un Mouvement (Pauvre) Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP) but, quite frankly, its members didn't do or say very much of anything apart from making disunited calls for a debate/vote/clarity on the policy of the French president, François Hollande, to the situation in Syria.

Fat chance.

So to kick things off, the sad news that one of the country's most popular and charismatic ministers is considering retirement.

Well that's the take Le Figaro had from an interview Arnaud Montebourg gave to "M", Le Monde's magazine

Sure, the minister of industrial renewal had a lot more on his mind and wasn't shy about bad mouthing some of his governmental colleagues, but most interesting for Le Figaro (and other media outlets) were Montebourg's ambitions for the highest office in the land.

The presidential election (he didn't explicitly say in which year) was the only one that really interested him.

After his spell as minister he'll "quit politics as a career" because he's "tired of elections."

Shame.

screenshot from Canal + les guignols de l'info

Moving swiftly along though... and, as promised, the UMP.

While the party's president, Jean-François Copé, was urging the country's president not to become Barak Obama's "poodle" (all right so he didn't quite use that word) over what to do about Syria, and to show some "real leadership", he didn't exactly offer up any alternative strategy himself.

"There is no easy solution to the Syrian crisis," he said in an interview with Le Monde, amazing us all with his political perspicacity.

"The international community has waited so long that the situation is now difficult to control."

Right. Thank you so much M. Copé. As if we hadn't all realised that.

Copé wouldn't initially be drawn on the possibility of French intervention in Syria or whether such action should be put to a parliamentary vote.

But another UMP heavyweight, Alain Juppé, who has held just about every major governmental ministry at one time or another would... be drawn that is.

"What is happening in Syria is a terrible tragedy. Responsibility for this lies with Damascus," he said during the "Friends of Sarkozy" jamboree (more on that in a moment) at the beginning of the week.

"Personally, I believe we must act and I've said so from the very beginning.  But we cannot act alone. We have neither the means nor the legitimacy. We need a coalition, a clear goal, and to find a political solution," said the statesman-in-waiting as he called for the whole issue to be put to a parliamentary vote.



Ah. Isn't it great to have such lucidity and consistency coming from leading members of the opposition?

Perhaps that's why one journalist on television let slip the most telling of phrases in describing the UMP as the "main" opposition party, thereby...er implying there were other legitimate alternatives.

There are?

Au secours!

Now back to that "Association des amis de Sarkozy" (did you know there has been an official website up and running for quite a while now?) or "Friends of Sarkozy" get together.

The party might no longer be able to afford an annual summer conference, but it certainly seems to have found a viable alternative.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly gathered together in the southwestern French town of Arcachon (nice beaches by the way) on sunny Monday to heap praise on their beloved former leader, outlining once again why he had to return to the political frontline and insisting he was the real boss of the UMP and the man for 2017 (the next French presidential election, just in case you had forgotten).

Up "on stage" (where she belongs) Nadine Morano (yep...her) was daintily haranguing the 2,000-strong crowd, getting them all going with a "You want him back? I didn't hear. Are you sure?" chant.

Firm friend to the former president and loyal lieutenant (yes, it's a cheesy, lazy cliché, but what the heck) Brice Hortefeux was busy signing autographs. And Copé? Well he turned up to press the flesh and show his support just in case the worst (as far as he's concerned) happens and Sarkozy decides to ride his white horse to rescue the party, the country, the world...from Manuel Valls.

Good to know the cult of personality is alive and kicking.



Not present were...surprise, surprise...François Fillon, sharpening his knives elsewhere and attempting to give some colour to his character by doing the (for him) unthinkable and appearing in Paris Match.

All right, so he has done it before. But now he needs to appear "properly presidential" for his 2017 bid.

Also missing was Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, who had to get her children ready for la rentrée, Bruno Le Maire and Xavier Bertrand - both of whom have absolutely no pretensions to higher office themselves of course.

"Je soutiens Nicolas Sarkozy"  tee shirt (screenshot from BFM TV report)

And finally. We all know the UMP has been in a bit of a mess financially speaking (although that apparently is all but resolved) so perhaps it could borrow a centime or two from Boris Boillon.

Remember him?

Boillon was the diplomatic golden boy of Sarkozy's presidency.

From Iraq, "Sarko boy", as he was dubbed in the French media, went (via Facebook and that rather, shall we say, "daring" personal photo of him wearing nothing other than a pair of trunks and a smile - you can see the shot here if you feel so inclined) to Tunisia.

Nicely installed there at the ripe old age of just 41 after the country's 2011 Jasmine revolution, he set about making himself popular by insulting a woman journalist, before doing his mea culpa and apologising to the country as a whole on national television.

Anyway, that's all water under the diplomatic bridge because Boillon is no longer France's face abroad - anywhere

But he is back in the news after being stopped recently with a tidy little sum in his pocket.

Boillon was about to make his way to Brussels by train, when police apparently picked him up at Gare du Nord station in Paris with €350,000 and $40,000 worth of readies in his possession.

Er. Don't all transfers of more than €10,000 within the EU need to be declared?

You may ponder on that at your leisure.

Oh, by the way.

Did anyone else see the photo of François Hollande looking suitably gormless that AFP used to run alongside a piece on the start of the school year?

It was apparently withdrawn (an editorial decision) because it was considered "unflattering".

Can't post it here - copyright issues of course.

But you can see it here. Go on. Take a look.

Très Flanby indeed.

And this time it really is bon week-end.

French opposition UMP party as united as ever in perfect disharmony

Exciting news from France's opposition centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP).

Jean-François Copé and François Fillon have agreed to let members decide on whether to hold another vote for the post of party leader.

Breathe deeply before you read on. Some of what follows will be more than confusing.

The UMP is in a bit of a mess at the moment. Actually it has been for quite a while now.

For example, take its reaction (sorry to have to mention this again) to the anti same-sex marriage "Manif pour tous" march in Paris last weekend.

Among those taking part in the demonstration were the party's president, Jean-François Copé, Henri Guaino - a former speechwriter to Nicolas Sarkozy when he was in office and now a member of parliament in his own right - and Laurent Wauquiez, a former minister and a supporter of Copé's "defeated" challenger for the leadership of the party - François Fillon.

Notable by their absence though were Fillon himself, Alain Juppé - a former minister of just about anything you can think of and the current mayor of Bordeaux, and the party's likely candidate for next year's race to be mayor of Paris, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (NKM).

Copé - ever the slick opportunist - was plainly using the demonstration as a means by which to protest against the current government and drum up support for the party in next year's local elections.

While for Guaino, it was clearly a matter of sticking to his principals - even if he had mistakenly voted in favour of the bill to allow same-sex marriage when it passed its final reading in parliament - and he was "proud" to have taken part.

Juppé, who unlike Guiano had managed to hit the right button and say "non" in the final vote - had previously stated he would be a no-show as the law had been passed and it had to be respected.

And NKM, who had abstained in the parliamentary vote, obviously had other more important issues on her mind namely that of the far-right Front National's call  to vote against her when polls open in the UMP's primary to choose its candidate for mayor of Paris.

Phew!

On the subject of "voting" that brings us back neatly to an issue that remains unresolved and illustrates the state of health of the party...the struggle for the leadership.

You thought it was over?

Wrong.

Jean-François Cope and François Fillon (screenshot from i>Télé report)

Remember Copé's glorious "victory" over Fillon in last year's battle when both men declared themselves to have won and how the party split in two for a while after claims of vote-rigging and fraud?

The debacle dragged on for weeks until the two men and their supporters managed to bury the proverbial hatchet (somewhere) and reach some sort of working agreement.

They created an internal structure stuffed to bursting point with vice presidents to represent the two very different directions the party was trying to take at the same time.

Even though Copé perhaps has had the upper hand - after all he's the one who holds the post of party leader - his legitimacy has been questioned, and the issue of whether to hold another vote has never really gone away...until now.

Because on Monday the two men announced a solution which will put an end to divisions within the party and steer it on a true red, white and blue course for the future.

They've agreed to let party members decide whether there should be another vote to choose the party president.

Yes in other words (and sorry, there's no way to make this clear without constant repetition) their recommendation is that party members vote in June on whether they should vote again in December.

Now doesn't that make complete and utter political (non)sense?

Pass the gin.

Never mind Alain Juppé - you never stood a chance

Plenty of people thought he was the man for the job; Alain Juppé, one of the founders and the first president of the centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) when it saw the light of day back in 2002 as the Union pour la majorité présidentielle (Union for the presidential majority) was the person could break the deadlock between Jean-François Copé and Francois Fillon.

(screenshot BFM TV)

Alas, "Super Juppé", the man who, so many political pundits, fellow party members and even opponents have praised and/or described as a real "Homme d'État" has failed to bind the union that, over the past week, has redefined the term French farce.

Maybe it's not surprising though, because Juppé's career hasn't really been so "Super" after all has it?

Yes, he has held high office; prime minister, defence minister, foreign minister - twice and ecology minister, and he has been mayor of Bordeaux for 15 of the past 17 years so - on the face of it - he definitely has the political credentials.

But he also has all the usual baggage which goes with political office in France.

He was prime minister under Jacques Chirac from 1995 to 1997, drafting into government a number of so-called "Juppettes" - the somewhat sexist and condescending term used to describe his appointing 12 women into ministerial positions - and overseeing a jolly old period when strikes became almost a national pastime in France.

Juppé also "did" the typical political French thing of being convicted in 2004 - for mishandling public funds and finding himself "suspended" from holding political office of any sort for 10 years.

As this is France though, Juppé bounced back (a little faster than expected) and after a "period of rehabilitative convalescence" in Canada, he was re-elected as mayor of Bordeaux in 2006.

Proving his full political credentials had been re-instated, Juppé was back in government - briefly - when Nicolas Sarkozy won the presidential election in 2007.

He was named number two behind the prime minister François Fillon, as minister of ecology, but had to stand down (again) after failing to be elected in the parliamentary elections which followed (Sarkozy had made it a requirement that any minister standing but losing would have to resign).

Towards the end of Sarkozy's reign, Juppé was back in government - this time replacing the disgraced Michèle Alliot-Marie as foreign minister and using all his statesmenship to play second fiddle to the French president as Sarkozy took over affairs in Libya and later in the year bringing about a speedy diplomatic resolution to affairs in Syria - not.

Yes there was no doubt that with such a political pedigree and success rate, Juppé was the obvious choice to mediate between Copé and Fillon.

Now that he has thrown in the towel the party's only hope is probably the very person whose counsel should have been sought in the first place...

UMP leadership battle - Xavier Bertrand "passes" and Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet withdraws

It has been a fascinating (stifle those yawns) couple of days in the contest to find the next leader of the opposition centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement,UMP).

First up Xavier Bertrand, announced at the weekend that he wouldn't be standing in the election scheduled for November.

And on Monday, the day before the deadline for nominations closed, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (NKM) said she was pulling out of the race.

Yes, the contest to find the next leader of the party is definitely...er...cooling down?

Bertrand's decision proved to be one noteworthy for its content, especially in saying something that wasn't about to happen. Remember Alain Juppé also used the same tactics recently to declare his non-participation.

But the former minister and one-time secretary general of the party also managed to spice things up a little by making journalists reach for their diaries in true François Hollande style (as humorist and impersonator Nicolas Canteloup keeps reminding listeners every morning on Europe 1 radio, the country's president now has an "agenda" or timetable) to note that he would be running in the party's primaries to choose its candidate in the 2017 presidential (of the country, that is) elections.

"I don't want to confuse matters and it's a coherent choice and a transparent one," he said.

Talk about forward planning (yes that's tautologous) in all its glorious splendour. It certainly earned something of a snorting response from Juppé who, when asked what he thought about Bertrand's announcement said with more than a hint of irony that, "Without doubt, some politicians never change. You just have to smile at their impatience given the situation the country finds itself in today."

So no "Bertrand for presidency of the UMP" even though he apparently has the necessary support of party activists to be able to stand.

Nominations close on Tuesday and potential candidates have to present almost 8,000 (or 7,924 to be precise) signatures to qualify for the first round.

And no NKM either because (handkerchieves at the ready) she reportedly hasn't managed to gather enough backing.

"I have been trying to collect sufficient signatures to be able to stand," she told Europe 1 radio.

"But at the last reckoning, I had gathered just under 7,000 so I'm withdrawing which is a shame as I had hoped to bring my ideas to help lead the party."

Neither Bertrand nor NKM has said who they'll be voting for in a race which is likely to figure  former prime minister François Fillon and current secretary general Jean-François Copé  in a slugfest, or as NKM described it, "an excess of testosterone which could render any real debate sterile."

So in true sloppy journalistic style - when there's nothing more to say about a story or the person reporting it cannot think of a way to wrap things up - who either of them will plump for in the end "remains to be seen" or "only time will tell".

The end - for now.





NKM : "Je n'aurai pas les parrainages nécessaires" par Europe1fr