And if the French were to vote in parliamentary elections today...?

Warning - this piece contains so many numbers, it could serious "do your head in"

A polls has been published in France today which, in and of itself, means very little because it's based on a false premise.

But (and you knew there would be one) it's enough to give the current government, the Socialist party (PS) and in fact the whole of the political Left, the heebie-jeebies.

If (conditional) there were a parliamentary election in France today (and the next one isn't due until June 2017) the Left, and in particular the PS, would suffer a humiliating (to say the least) defeat.

All right, so the poll appears in Le Figaro, a national daily not exactly known for it's love of the PS and whose chairman happens to be Serge Dassault, a member of the opposition centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) and a member of the Senate since 2004.

And was it was carried out by l'Institut CSA (conseil, sondage et analyse) part of the Bolloré group whose president and Chief executive officer, Vincent Bolloré, just happens to be a friend of the newly-elected leader the UMP - Nicolas Sarkozy.

But don't start reading too much into those "facts". They're just an aside as, after all, a poll is just a poll - isn't it?

It has to be both objective and representative.

So what does the Le Figaro's poll "indicate" - bearing in mind that the imaginary election is not going to happen today.

Well...

Using the current two-round majority system, the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) and the centrist Union des démocrates et indépendants (Union of democrats and independents, UDI) would win between 485 and 505 of the 577 seats in the national assembly.

"A level never obtained by the centre-right" points out Le Figaro which published the poll. "Better even than the 1993 parliamentary election results (when the two centre-right/centrist parties of the time, the Rassemblement pour la République and the Union pour la démocratie française, won 257 and 215 seats respectively)."

The far-right Front National, FN (currently with just two members of parliament) would see it numbers increase to anything from 14 to 24 seats.

And the Left - including the Socialist party, the Greens and the Front de Gauche?

Well they would have to be satisfied with between 56 and 66 seats.

The make up of the national assembly if an election were held today (screenshot "La Nouvelle Édition" - Canal +)

And the "debacle" for the PS would hardly be avoided (although it would be less humiliating) if a system of proportional representation were used.

UMP and UDI - between 208 and 248 seats.
The Left - (PS, Greens and Front de Gauche) - between 180 and 220 (hardly respectable...but)
FN - between 138 and 159 seats.

Draw your own conclusions as to how to interpret the figures and even the value of the (yet another) poll.

But a clearer picture will emerge next year as...guess what.

There will be elections...departmental on March 22 and 29 and regional...at some later date once the territorial reform (the proposal to reduce of the number of regions from 22 to 13 in metropolitan France) has finally been signed, sealed and delivered.

Resounding victory for France's Socialist party in parliamentary elections? Well yes - and no

The headlines in France on Monday said it all, didn't they?

The Socialist party had won a healthy majority in the parliamentary elections and are now in a position to go it alone without the "help" of Europe Écologie - Les Verts (EELV) - let's just call them the Greens (not the cabbage variety) for simplicity - or the Front de Gauche coalition of far-left parties.

Whoopee!

Source TF1

Some of those long-awaited and potentially far-reaching social policies can now be introduced although the jury is most definitely out on the capacity of this (or any) government to be able to deal with the Eurozone problems, France's debt and commitment to balancing the books.

Don't be surprised to discover the government forced to introduce spending cuts and tax increases along the lines of those centrist François Bayrou outlined in his presidential campaign but nobody else really wanted to discuss because apparently the French didn't want to hear about them.

The weekend's results were a resounding "yes" to what the Socialist party has to offer and a "strong vote of confidence in the new president," as far as finance minister Pierre Moscovici was concerned.

Really?

A "strong vote of confidence" and a resounding "yes" when only 55.41 per cent of those registered to vote in the second round actually bothered to do so.

Yep, once again the abstention rate - logically, if you do the maths - 44.59 per cent was surely a major player in the outcome.

The only "resounding" feature of the result was that a majority government was elected by a minority of the French.

(If you want to do the number crunching, take a look at the interior ministry's official figures for both rounds of voting.)

And therein lies part of the problem; the two-round run-off voting system in France which has meant that most voters have been asked to make their way to the polling stations four times in the past couple of months.

They turned out in force for the two rounds of the presidential elections in April/May (79.48 and 80.35 respectively) so there's surely not argument about the French not being interested in politics or the future of their country.

But the number of times they've been called to the ballot boxes recently must have led to a certain feeling voter fatigue.

That combined with the perception maybe that the parliamentary elections were a "done deal" with the Socialist party virtually guaranteed to have some sort of majority, probably put many off voting even if they had felt so inclined.

And not forgetting that the two-round system of voting will have meant for many that they were left with an option for plumping for one of two (sometimes three) candidates who were - well quite frankly - not of their choosing.

But help is at hand in a manner of speaking.

The government (although undoubtedly happy with a healthy majority) realises there's a problem and is apparently ready to consider revamping the electoral calendar (and there's even talk - heaven forbid - of re-introducing proportional representation).

The prime minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, has said that shortening the time between the presidential and parliamentary elections could be one solution and there's even the possibility of holding them both on the same day.

"We'll give ourselves the time necessary to think about it," he said on national radio at the weekend. "The next (presidential and parliamentary) elections aren't until 2017.

In the meantime of course the French will still be asked to trot down to the polling stations in the country's seemingly never-ending cycle of elections, although they'll be given some respite for at least a couple of years.

And then it'll be all systems go.

The regional and cantonal elections have been combined to become l'élection des conseillers territoriaux and are scheduled for the same year as the municipal elections - 2014.

And later  the same year there'll be elections to the European parliament.



Enjoy the calm while it lasts.

Valérie Trierweiler's Tweet of support for Ségolène Royal's opponent

It was probably too good to last; the self-declared "normal" presidency of François Hollande.

He, his party and France have now been treated to the sort of celebrity-cum-politics behaviour reminiscent of the days of his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy.

And it's largely thanks to Hollande's partner, Valérie Trierweiler.

Valérie Trierweiler (screenshot YouTube video)

While the leader of the Socialist party, Martine Aubry, was on a "Save Ségolène Royal" mission to help the party's chosen candidate in her battle to win a seat in the second round of parliamentary elections, Trierweiler was putting her best stiletto heel foot forward and in the process carving out a new role for herself.

That of, in the words of L'Express magazine, the "minister of jealousy".

Trierweiler Tweeted (or should that be Twat) a message of support - for Olivier Falorni, the man running against Royal.

He has been a long-time Hollande supporter, even apparently at a time when it wasn't particularly fashionable, and as a loyal and experienced "man on the ground" had expected to be the party's candidate in the safe constituency of La Rochelle in the département of Charente-Maritime.

But the party decided differently, parachuting in Royal to contest the seat which would be the first step towards her eventually playing an important role and one she covets, as the president of the national assembly.

Farlorni, who's no fan of Royal, refused to withdraw his candidature, was suspended by the party and was only narrowly beaten in last Sunday's first round.

He's staying in the race for next weekend's second round and  presents a real threat to Royal's ambitions.

Enter stage left, the non-elected "minister of jealousy", Valerie Trierweiler, with a Tweet in which she wished Forloni "bon courage" and recognised his "years of selfless commitment (to the party)."

Just 146 not-so-innocent characters guaranteed to have an impact as the Socialist party was left jaw-to-floor, the centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP) enjoyed the distraction from its own problems and the media - well, went wild with a story in an otherwise rather - er - dull election campaign.

So why did she do it?

Why did Trierweiler send that message of support using a social network knowing full well that it would be out there for everyone and anyone to read?

After all she's an experienced journalist, knows what she's doing, and is far - very far - from being daft.

Maybe, after all, there's something in that headline in L'Express and Trierweiler, even though she's now first lady, still resents Royal, the woman who was Hollande's partner for 30 years and with whom he had four children.

Jealousy - really?

Why not?

Trierweiler is on record as saying she didn't vote for Royal in the first round of the 2007 presidential elections and abstained in the second.

After reading in Paris Match - the magazine for which she writes - a piece on Thomas Hollande in which he was described as the oldest child of the "couple Royal-Hollande", Trierweiler sent her colleague a terse text message saying "The ex-couple Royal-Hollande. What are you playing at?"

And that moment at the victory celebrations at Place de la Bastille in Paris after Hollande had beaten Sarkozy in last month's presidential elections was surely a sign of what was to come.

Did you notice it? Trierweiler - and many others - certainly did: Hollande giving Royal a peck on the cheek.

How did she react? With an "order" so easy to read from her lips that Hollande kiss her on the mouth - now - in front of everyone.

The "Nicolas and Carla" show might no longer be centre stage as far as the celebrity gossip magazines and certain sectors of the mainstream media are concerned, but it looks as though a worthy replacement has been found, albeit so far, just a one-woman show.

Reasons not to stifle a yawn after the first round of the French parliamentary elections

Well that was an interesting weekend politically-speaking after the French went to the polls in the first round of the parliamentary elections, wasn't it?

No?

Oh all right then - predictable and tedious perhaps although it threw up a few fascinating results here and there.

And let's face it, TV and radio did their best to make a show of it, clearing their schedules and inviting all the usual suspects to comment and analyse.

Perhaps it wasn't quite the "triumph" for the Socialist party as suggested by an early headline on the BBC (thankfully it was changed to reflect better the actual outcome with a more measured "Socialists and allies win first round") but it was at least a promise of a reasonable working majority - either with or without Leftist partners after the second round of voting next Sunday.

In reality the biggest winner on the day was, as pointed out by many political pundits, the abstention rate.

Only 57.23 per cent of the country's 46 million voters turned out to cast their ballots. Or put another way, 42.77 per cent couldn't be bothered - a record for the fifth republic.

And although it might not seem so important, with France's complicated process of calculating which candidates can make it through to the second round, a number of them didn't make the required cut - even though at first sight they scored pretty high on the day.

Most of the government ministers who took the risk of standing - remember they didn't have to, but if they did and lost then they would be out on their ears - did pretty well.

Six of the 25 who stood were elected in the first round, among them big hitters prime minister Jean-Marc Ayrault and foreign minister Laurent Fabius.

A clutch of others should have no problem in the second-round run off including those considered to have taken the biggest risk: the minister of agriculture Stéphane Le Foll, and the culture minister, Aurélie Filippetti.

There could be one casualty after the second round though, in the shape of the minister for the disabled, Marie-Arlette Carlotti.

Some "personalities" from across the political spectrum came a cropper, most notably perhaps the former junior minister for human rights and later when that post was scrapped,  junior minister for sport, Rama Yade.

She didn't make it through to the second round in the constituency in which she was standing in the suburbs of Paris.

Yade, who was one of the three high-profile ethnic minority figures in Nicolas Sarkozy's first government now finds herself in a political wilderness of sorts, but at 36 is young and certainly talented enough to bounce back quickly.

The same cannot be said for François Bayrou. The leader of the Centrist party Mouvement démocrate (MoDem) has been a member of parliament for "his" Pyrénées-Atlantiques constituency (described as his "fiefdom" - so very typical of French politics) for donkeys years (well since 1988, when it was created).

But the multi-presidential candidate (three times so far) is in serious danger of losing out to the Socialist party's Nathalie Chabanne in the second round. Clearly Bayrou's gesture of openly declaring he would vote for François Hollande in the presidential run-off against Sarkozy is having its impact - and not in the way Bayrou would want.

And then there's Seggers - or Ségolène Royal if you wish - parachuted into a safe seat only to find herself up against another (more local) Socialist, Olivier Falorni.

He ignored party instructions not to stand and was summarily suspended. But he finished just behind Seggers in the first round, is continuing his prolonged fit of pique (in protest at the practice of candidates being parachuted) and could well cost Royal a seat.

The Socialist party's "Big Guns" including - figure this - Martine Aubrey - are rallying behind Seggers, proving there's nowt so peculiar or erratic as a politician.

It's a similar story for former interior minister Claude Guéant.

He too has been parachuted into a safe seat - this time in the Paris suburbs - for the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP).

Just like Seggers, Guéant finds himself up against someone (Thierry Solère) from his own party who is locally-based and who's refusing to follow orders.

Finally in this briefest of brief looks (which is decidedly longer than intended) there was the much-publicised but ultimately flat duel between the two extremes in a constituency in the north of France: far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon taking on far-right leader Marine Le Pen.

The two had of course traded verbal punches - or not, as one refused to debate directly with the other - in this year's presidential campaign for which they were both candidates.

On Sunday, Mélenchon failed to make it through to the second round, blaming everyone but himself in the process while Le Pen finished first and is still in with a shout (as far as she's concerned) of winning the seat.



Should she pull it off, she might not be the only member of the Front National - or the only Le Pen come to that - in the new parliament.

Gilbert Collard in one of the constituencies in the département of Gard in southern France, is well-placed to win his seat, especially if his UMP opponent, Etienne Mourrut pulls out of the three-way race (with the Socialist party's Katy Guyot).

Mourrut is apparently "hesitating".

Marion Maréchal-Le Pen (screenshot France 2 news)

No hesitation though for the Socialist party in one of the constituencies in the neighbouring département of Vaucluse.

It has withdrawn its candidate from the second round to allow the UMP contender to go head-to-head with a certain Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, yes the 22-year-old niece of Marine and granddaughter of Jean-Marie.

Maybe the most interesting outcome of the first round though is the possibility that the Front National stands a real chance of winning seats.

There might not be nearly as many as there were in 1986 when the party won 35 seats under the (thankfully) short-lived system of proportional representation introduced (for very political reasons of course) for the parliamentary elections by the then-president François Mitterrand.

But winning a handful of seats under the French system of first past the post would give the Front National the political credibility it craves and demands.

Little wonder then that Le Pen (Marine that is) is targeting some high profile UMP candidates by urging FN voters to "go Socialist" in a manner of speaking.

Perhaps though an event in that very constituency where  Mélenchon and Le Pen did battle last weekend best reflects the first round results or at least how many French might feel about them.

It was the fate of one of the other candidates - there were 14 of them - standing in that constituency, Daniel Cucchiaro.

An independent ecologist (always a bad sign),  Cucchiaro finished last; no shame in that as someone has to.

It was the style in which he did it though - winning zero per cent of ballots cast because...well...nobody had voted for him.

Political parachuting – a French electoral tradition

The French will get to go the polls yet again – some of them twice -  in little under a month in parliamentary elections which could determine how much of a mandate the newly-elected president François Hollande will realistically have in pursuing his declared policies.

After all let’s not forget just how close the May 6 presidential run-off with Nicolas Sarkozy was: just over 1.1 million votes separated the two men and there were of course over two million blank votes.

Still a win is a win and Sarkozy has had praise heaped upon him for the dignified manner in which he has handled defeat.

Time then for the political parties to “tourner la page” as the French seem so fond of saying, and lock horns for the upcoming parliamentary elections.

France needs a proper opposition able to counterbalance the power of the Socialist party at local, regional, Senate and now presidential levels, runs the thinking behind the strategy of the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP) party.

It wants to show that the choice of Hollande was the wrong one as his policies “threaten the sovereignty and independence of the country.”

Meanwhile the Socialists want the French to endorse their choice of Hollande with a strong showing for the party in the parliamentary elections.

All well and good – a campaign fought on issues and ideological differences.

Sounds great doesn’t it.

Except that ugly tradition of parachuting candidates into chosen constituencies threatens to make its usual mockery of the political process and take up more than its fair share of media time over the coming weeks.

First up of course there’s  Jean-Luc Mélenchon, fresh from his presidential first-round 11 per cent “triumph” and puffed up ego.

He seems to have conveniently forgotten that he’s an elected member of the European parliament for the southwest of France and has now turned his attention to a seat in the National Assembly.

And it’s not just any seat. It’s one at the other end of the country in Hénin-Beaumont  in the northern département of Pas-de-Calais: one also being contested by the Front National’s Marine Le Pen.

Far Left versus Far Right – a clash of the Titans.

“I’m standing here because there’s a battle of national and international significance,” he announced on Saturday, well aware how the decision will play with Le Pen and the French media.

He’s a wily politician.

But Mélenchon isn’t alone.

The UMP has (at least) two high-ranking members who are being given a helping hand by the party in their future aspirations.

Sarkozy’s prime minister throughout his five years in office, François Fillon reportedly has his eye on a future run for Mayor of Paris. For that of course he needs to have a base in the capital.

Little matter that he already has a parliamentary seat in the western département of Sarthe, one he has held since 1981. In June Fillon will be standing for a sure-thing in the seventh arrondissement in Paris.

And then there’s Henri  Guaino, Sarkozy’s right hand man and advisor at the Elysée for the past five years. He wants to continue his career in parliament and the UMP has decided to allow him to contest another safe seat  in the département of Yvelines just outside of the capital.

Hang about though, there’s a problem as the UMP already has a declared candidate in the form of Olivier Delaporte, a mayor in one of the towns covered by the constituency, and he’s more than miffed at being sidelined.

So much so that Delaporte is threatening to run against Guaino.

Ah yes. parliamentary elections and politics in France – most definitely an honorable affair in which the candidate out to make a political point (Mélenchon) or the one deemed most in need of an easy ride (Guaino) is allowed to do exactly that.

In the case of the latter, Just ask the Socialist party’s former culture minister and Keith Richard look-alike Jack Lang.