Has Nicolas Sarkozy shot himself in foot with calls to repeal France's same-sex marriage law?

Well it sure looks that way - at least partially.

The former French president finally came off the fence, so-to-speak, when he announced at the weekend that the same-sex marriage law in France should be repealed.

Nicolas Sarkozy at Sens Commun meeting (screenshot i>Télé report)

His comments came during a meeting held by Sens Commun (Common sense), a fringe movement founded within the opposition centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) and one which had, and continues to have, close ties to the "Manif pour tous".

If that sounds familiar, it'll be because "Manif pour tous" was the organisation which most vociferously opposed same-sex marriage legislation (and joint adoption) and organised several large scale demonstrations in the run-up to the April 2013 parliamentary debates and votes.

In fact "Manif pour tous" is still going strong, campaigning under its current president, Ludovine de La Rochère, for family values and against assisted reproductive technology, surrogate mothers, same-sex couples having the right to marry and/or adopt children.

Yes, it's an organisation with its sights set on the past and not on the here-and-now and certainly not the future (unless it resembles the past).

Anyway, Sens Commun pulled off something of a coup by having all three candidates for the UMP leadership (to be decided by UMP members' votes in a fortnight's time) turn up to a weekend meeting.

First up (and the three men didn't appear on stage together but rather one after the other) was Bruno Le Maire, jeered when he announced he would not seek to scrap the law that had been passed allowing same-sex marriage.

Next up Hervé Mariton, a firm opponent to same-sex marriage and roundly applauded for his stance.

Finally it was Sarkozy's turn in front of an audience far from being impartial and eager (too eager perhaps) to hear him tell them what they wanted to hear.

And Sarkozy was happy to oblige - at first in words that seemed somewhat coded.

"Let's be clear about this, the Taubira law (for same-sex marriage, named after the justice minister, Christiane Taubira, who steered the legislation through parliament) needs to be completely rewritten from the top to the bottom," he said, happy to oblige in a language he thought would mollify those present.

But then as the chant of "Repeal, repeal, repeal," from the audience became stronger, Sarkozy  hardened his tone.

"All right, if you would rather that the law be repealed and another passed...in French, that's saying the same thing. The result is the same. But hey, if it make you happy, then frankly it doesn't cost much."

Rapturous applause from those listening. Sarkozy had said exactly what they wanted him to.

Nicolas Sarkozy propose d'abroger la loi Taubira - Le 15/11/2014 à 20h00

He might not be against extending the civil partnership rights (PACS) that exist for same-sex couples, but he wants to rewrite the law on marriage.

Hey ho. That'll be an easy one to get past the Conseil Constitutionnel - withdrawing a right of equality that exists to replace it with...something less.

So how far has Sarkozy shot himself in the foot?

Well only moderately.

Firstly, Sarkozy has made a mockery of the claim that he represents the unifying saviour of the party because some high ranking members and supporters of his push to become UMP leader, immediately responded that they were not in favour of repealing the legislation allowing same-sex marriage.

Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, Sarkozy's spokeperson during the 2012 presidential campaign said repeal was "neither desirable, nor possible".

The mayor of Nice and a minister during Sarkozy's "reign" as president, Christian Estrosi, said there should be no going back on the law and that it had been a "step forward".

And much the same sentiments from other former ministers, Frédéric Lefebvre, Valérie Pécresse and most notably Alain Juppé, a declared candidate for the UMP's primary to choose its candidate for the 2017 presidential election and the biggest threat to Sarkozy should he decide to throw his hat into that particular battle.

Even - and this will surely have come as a shock to many - one of Sarkozy's most fervent supporters, Nadine Morano, seemed unhappy with his statement, tweeting (as is her preferred method of communication) "The French had expected other priorities than the rewriting of the Taubira law."

Secondly Sarkozy was seriously misreading public opinion at large.

Same-sex marriage - yes or no - might have been a subject of debate over 18 months ago.

But the vote has passed and recent surveys show a majority of French (68 per cent) are in favour of same-sex marriage and 53 per cent believe couples of the same sex should be allowed to adopt - together.

That said, Sarkozy's stance is unlikely to have done him any harm with UMP members. He'll still more than likely romp home to win the leadership contest.

But it has displayed once again his predisposition for telling people (in this case an audience composed largely of those opposing same-sex marriage) what they wanted to hear without really having the (constitutional) tools to deliver.

Nicolas Sarkozy scores poorly among French on perceived honesty ratings

Whoopee!

Yet another poll.

Yes, the country which seems to delight in publishing a legion of surveys on an almost frighteningly (well, it would be if you were really to take them seriously) basis has now explored how "honest" some of the leading lights in the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) are.

All right, to give the free daily Metronews and TF1's all-news channel LCI credit, it could well be argued that the poll, which they commissioned CLAI to carry out, has a deservedly newsworthy angle.

There's an UMP leadership contest scheduled for the end of November with former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, the favourite to beat Bruno Le Maire and Hervé Mariton, the other two declared candidates.

And of course Sarkozy, currently touring the country with his "one man show" (below is a BFM TV video report, if you're interested), is widely thought to be considering a run to be the party's candidate for the 2017 presidential election.

Should he, as many predict, eventually decide to enter the party's planned primary (some time in 2016) he'll find himself up against the likes of Alain Juppé and François Fillon.

Nicolas Sarkozy "One man show" (screenshot BFM TV)

So, a poll to measure how honest the French perceive UMP politicians (in this case) to be, would seem timely...if not exactly a good use of...time (and money that is).

Surely nobody - or at least, very few - would rate politicians high in the honesty stakes.

After all politicians, of whatever persuasion, are famous for saying one thing when running for office and then another when faced with the reality of having been elected.

Plus they seldom take responsibility for mistakes, errors of judgement, failure for policies to deliver et yadda, yadda, yadda. It's always someone else's fault (or that of the global economy, which might well be partially true) and besides it's far easier to pass the buck.

Anyway, all that set to one side, none of the UMP's leading lights does especially well - at a national level - in the honesty perception poll.

Among those surveyed, Juppé came out top with 46 per cent, followed by Le Maire at 45 per cent and Fillon with 44 per cent.

Mind you, they were all streets ahead of Sarkozy who scored...wait for it...just 20 per cent.

Oh well, maybe when it comes to politics, "honesty" really is as much of a "lonely word" as US singer Billy Joel suggested in his 1979 international hit of the same name.

And besides, if the French population at large doesn't expect its politicians to be particularly honest (ooh - now that sounds like good material for yet another survey, surely) maybe this poll is nothing for the former president to worry about.

Fancy a little Billy Joel to finish off?

Handbags at dawn - Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé

Ah. Politics is such a fickle profession.

"Friends" come and "friends" go - as befits the occasion.

And the odd feud along the way, seemingly forgetten when the two (or more) protagonists are reconciled is...well, frankly, par for the course.

Right now though, there's trouble apparently brewing (yet again) for the opposition centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) as certain figures jostle for position ahead of the party's planned primary (some time in 2016) to choose the candidate for the 2017 presidential election.

Yes, it might seem a fair distance away - and the battle for the leadership (quite a separate matter) hasn't yet taken place - but territory is already being marked in the very finest of...well, manners in which territory is traditionally marked in the animal kingdom.

Remember (yet again) that the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, threw his proverbial hat into the ring for the lUMP eadership campaign last week - pitting him against two other declared contenders, Bruno Le Maire and Hervé Mariton.

And although he hasn't actually said he'll seek the party's nomination for 2017, all the talk is that is really his ultimate goal.

Should he decide to enter that particular fray, he'll find himself up against at least two other declared candidates - both of whom served under him during his time as president: François Fillon, his prime minister during five years, and Alain Juppé, who served as foreign minister for the final 15 months of Sarkozy's "reign".

While both represent a challenge to Sarkozy, it's Juppé, with his wealth of political experience (including as the former leader of the UMP 2002-2004, prime minister under Jacques Chirac 1995-1997 and twice foreign minister as well as spells at defence and environment) and popularity who probably presents the biggest danger.

Alain Juppé (screenshot from "Le Grand rendez-vous" Europe 1, September 21, 2014)

Seemingly eager to bury the hatchet (but where), or perhaps better said, dissuade him from standing...or both...during his 45-minute televised interview last weekend, Sarkozy said of Juppé, "I met him when I was 20 years old. He has become a partner, a friend and a companion. He's someone I admire greatly."

Ah. That's nice, isn't it. Quite the proverbial olive branch.

Except in private, Sarkozy has apparently been saying something quite different according to the weekly satirical newspaper Le Canard Enchaîné.

It  reminds its readers that at the beginning of September (a couple of weeks after Juppé had said he would be standing in the 2016 primary - a selection process not at all to Sarkozy's liking), Sarkozy is rumoured to have said (in private of course) that he would "kill him" (politically speaking...Juppé's response on hearing the rumour was that Sarkozy "knew where to find him").

And according to the newspaper, Sarkozy has once again been firing salvoes in private, especially over Juppé's age and "moral" lecturing.

"Juppé will be 72 years old in 2017 and has an 18 month suspended prison sentence (for abuse of public funds), behind him," he's reported to have said.

"Do you think he scares me or that he's the right person to give me a lesson in morals?"

Juppé isn't exactly a political shrinking violet though. On the contrary, he's a seasoned scrapper, albeit it with rather more humour, perhaps more cutting and incisive and certainly more refined.

While Sarkozy was explaining his reasons on France 2 on Sunday evening for his political comeback, Juppé was unveiling on his blog the sort of programme he would be putting to party members during the primary.

And on Tuesday he told BFM TV that it was clear the battle had begun.

"I know that today the match has started," he said, poking fun at the idea that Sarkozy would try to change the name of the UMP to rid it of the less than positive image it has had over the past couple of years.

"You know, everything can be changed," he said.

"Rather than call it the UMP we can rename it PMU (also the name of the state-controlled betting system, Pari mutuel urbain). If that's the change, it won't exactly be fundamental."

The war of words has begun - and the campaign (should Sarkozy eventually declare) could well prove to be a rough one.

To be continued...


Juppé sort les armes contre Sarkozy by 20Minutes

Poll shows "Sarko revival" gathers momentum - among UMP party supporters

We all know how much French politicians seem to love opinion polls.

Well, here's one that'll have the former president Nicolas Sarkozy grinning from ear to ear, at least in terms of the level of support he has within his "political family" the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP).

It's an exclusive (aren't they always?) survey carried out by Ifop on behalf of the national radio station Europe 1 and the daily newspaper Le Figaro to gauge the impact of Sarkozy's 45-minute TV interview with the channel's prime time weekend news anchor Laurent Delahousse on Sunday.

And the result?

A resounding win for Sarkozy, as far as, UMP supporters were concerned, in the party's leadership battle due to be put to a vote among members on November 29, with a second round scheduled a week later should no candidate secure a majority.

At the moment, that second round doesn't look as though it'll be necessary as the poll shows Sarkozy (at 75 per cent) to be way ahead of his rivals Bruno Le Maire (16 per cent) and Hervé Mariton (2 per cent) as far as UMP supporters.

(screenshot Ifop poll for Europe 1 and Le Figaro)

And the future looks bright for Sarkozy in terms of his popularity among UMP members should he decide to run for the party's nomination to be its presidential candidate in 2017.

The poll has Sarkozy at 65 per cent with his nearest rival Alain Juppé at 23 per cent and the "also-rans" François Fillon and Xavier Bertrand at seven and two per cent respectively.

Once again those figures are only a reflection of the Sarkozy's popularity among the party's supporters - and even then 28 per cent of them

But it's not all good news for Sarkozy.

The general electorate still considers Juppé (at 33 per cent) to be the party's best candidate in the 2017 presidential election ahead of Sarkozy (26 per cent).

And although UMP members will, of course, ultimately decide who'll run (and remember Sarkozy hasn't officially confirmed he'll seek the party's nomination) it'll be the French as a whole who decide the best man or woman for the job.

A couple of other factors to consider as well are other polls released recently showing that the far-right Front National leader, Marine Le Pen, would make it through to a second round run-off in 2017 - no matter who would be her opponents in the first round, along with another (carried out before Sunday's interview) showing that 60 per cent of the French "disapproved" of Sarkozy's comeback.

And let's not forget the judicial enquiries which could "continue to dog" the success of the so-called "Sarko revival".

One thing's for certain, more polls - many more of them - over the coming months will allow those "in the know" to interpret and analyse to their hearts' delight.

Anyway, for the moment,  for you number crunchers out there, the full Ifop poll results and the methodology can be found here.

Happy reading!

Oh, and because a healthy slice of satire never did any harm, here's Monday's edition of Les Guignols de l'info on Canal + with (among other things) its own particular take on that televised interview and Sarkozy's comeback.

Now that, you can really enjoy.

Les Guignols du 22/09 - L'interview de Nicolas Sarkozy

Back to the future - with Nicolas Sarkozy

The former French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, took to television on Sunday evening to win over the hearts of the nation and explain why he felt an obligation and "a duty" to run for the leadership of the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement).

Watching Sarkozy as he answered anchor Laurent Delahousse's questions, it was more than a little difficult not to be struck by the resemblance he seemed to bear to his puppet on the satirical show on Canal + "Le Guignols de l'info".

Laurent Delahousse and Nicolas Sarkozy (screenshot France 2 interview 21/09/2014)

There were all the familiar shoulder-heaving, head-bobbing, twitching mannerisms which make him so easy to caricature.

And they were accompanied with the unforgettable "iron fist in a velvet glove" (for want of a better idiom) verbal style with which, for example, he attacked François Hollande after saying he didn't want to "waste time criticising his successor".

"He (Hollande) has spent two years demolishing what we accomplished," he said.

"M. Hollande seems to want to think of me as a "bad" person. I simply don't think about him."

So that's the superficial impression. It was TV after all, and Sarkozy is a proven master of communications and image.

But what about the substance? What did Sarkozy actually say...that was any different to what he has said in the past? And what concrete measures did he present for transforming the party and of, course, the country?

Nicolas Sarkozy (screenshot France 2 television September 2014)

Well...there was the  use of the referendum as a political tool to let the people have their say.

"It's the key," he said.

Putting aside the relative merits or not of the idea, wasn't that part of his campaign pledge in 2007?

And the need for some changes to the Schengen agreement (which allows its signatories a borderless Europe)  - without outlining exactly what apart from admitting that "I should have said before that in its current state Schengen is not functioning as it should"  - a theme throughout his failed 2012 campaign.

Other than that, not very much, other than the broadest of brushstrokes about the need to bring people within his political family together, provide an alternative to the current government's policies and prevent the prospect of France becoming completely isolated.

Over 8.5 million people apparently tuned in for the 45-minute interview  - proof perhaps that Sarkozy leaves few indifferent.

And some - in particular his two declared adversaries for the leadership battle, Bruno Le Maire and Hervé Mariton - might have found it odd that Sarkozy was given so much air time to make his pitch as a candidate.

Only this is French politics where defeated candidates never seem to fade away gracefully after losing but reappear again and again and again.

And as much as Sarkozy might have wanted those viewing to believe that the interview was ostensibly about the UMP leadership battle, the real focus surely was and remains the 2017 presidential election campaign.

In case you missed it, here's the full interview.

Enjoy.