French presidential election - leading candidates take to stage for marathon TV debate

So the first live TV broadcast presidential debate is over.

Only the “Big Five” or leading candidates were invited by TF1/LCI to take part; those ranking at more than 10 per cent in the opinion polls.

The leading candidates
screenshot

It was  a move that prompted Nicolas Dupont-Aignan - one of the “little candidates” (there are six of them - yes a grand total of 11 aiming for the highest office in the Land) to stomp off in a huff during a television interview during a news broadcast over the weekend.

So how did the candidates perform?

Well, as the BBC’s Hugh Schofield rightly points out, trying to predict the winner of any presidential debate is pretty much “a mug’s game”.

And although Monday night’s three-hour plus marathon might have been a first in a presidential campaign here in France (normally the debating is left to the final two before the second round) it’s probably anyone’s guess as to who actually came across as the winner.

Over nine million viewers tuned in to watch and although the “conventional wisdom” of political commentators (those who “know” best) and the independent polls taken immediately afterwards judged centrist Emmanuel Macron as the “most convincing”, it would be unwise to read too much into that.

Ultimately each candidate’s camp was putting its own political spin on the evening with each claiming to have been “satisfied”, “happy” and “confident”. Nothing new there then.

For the record though, here’s a personal view as to how they came across.

Macron probably had the most to lose and was on the receiving end of several attacks. After a ponderous start, though he held his own and refrained from falling into the traps laid down for him.

Still, he needs to find a “defining” policy which sticks in the electorate’s mind.

At the moment he appears to be caught in the Centre’s dilemma of wanting to appeal to all sides.

The far-right Front National’s Marine Le Pen was as bellicose as ever - only to be expected - and that won’t have done her any harm…among her own supporters.

But the shrugged dismissal of any criticism and an inability to come up with a response as to why she deems herself above the judiciary (only fleetingly addressed) and fa ailure to appeal outside of her own electorate will not have made her chances of widening her appeal.

Les Républicain’s François Fillon - was statesmanlike and serious (almost to the point of boring) but astonishingly reserved and restrained - almost as though he were, at times, absent. He too suffers from a difficulty of reaching out beyond his own “fans” - and oh yes, the foreign media should stop defining his candidacy as centre-right. It’s rightwing.

Benoît Hamon - the Socialist party’s candidate - was widely seen as having failed to shine. Sure, he was articulate and coherent but sometimes (too often in fact) saw his thoughts and ideas overshadowed by those of the man whose views most closely match his own - the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Make no mistake, Mélenchon (what was it with those very pink lips?)  was and remains an orator head and shoulders above the rest, able to inject more than a modicum of cutting wit at just the right moment.

But he’s also more of a troublemaker (especially for the Socialist party) than a serious candidate to be president.

The second debate in a fortnight’s (April 4) on BFM TV will feature all 11 candidate when the likes of Dupont-Aignan, Jacques Cheminade and François Asselineau will get their chance to ensure that the electorate is even more confused afterwards than it was before with polls still showing that around 40 per cent don’t know how they’ll vote.

Nicolas Sarkozy scores poorly among French on perceived honesty ratings

Whoopee!

Yet another poll.

Yes, the country which seems to delight in publishing a legion of surveys on an almost frighteningly (well, it would be if you were really to take them seriously) basis has now explored how "honest" some of the leading lights in the centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a popular movement, UMP) are.

All right, to give the free daily Metronews and TF1's all-news channel LCI credit, it could well be argued that the poll, which they commissioned CLAI to carry out, has a deservedly newsworthy angle.

There's an UMP leadership contest scheduled for the end of November with former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, the favourite to beat Bruno Le Maire and Hervé Mariton, the other two declared candidates.

And of course Sarkozy, currently touring the country with his "one man show" (below is a BFM TV video report, if you're interested), is widely thought to be considering a run to be the party's candidate for the 2017 presidential election.

Should he, as many predict, eventually decide to enter the party's planned primary (some time in 2016) he'll find himself up against the likes of Alain Juppé and François Fillon.

Nicolas Sarkozy "One man show" (screenshot BFM TV)

So, a poll to measure how honest the French perceive UMP politicians (in this case) to be, would seem timely...if not exactly a good use of...time (and money that is).

Surely nobody - or at least, very few - would rate politicians high in the honesty stakes.

After all politicians, of whatever persuasion, are famous for saying one thing when running for office and then another when faced with the reality of having been elected.

Plus they seldom take responsibility for mistakes, errors of judgement, failure for policies to deliver et yadda, yadda, yadda. It's always someone else's fault (or that of the global economy, which might well be partially true) and besides it's far easier to pass the buck.

Anyway, all that set to one side, none of the UMP's leading lights does especially well - at a national level - in the honesty perception poll.

Among those surveyed, Juppé came out top with 46 per cent, followed by Le Maire at 45 per cent and Fillon with 44 per cent.

Mind you, they were all streets ahead of Sarkozy who scored...wait for it...just 20 per cent.

Oh well, maybe when it comes to politics, "honesty" really is as much of a "lonely word" as US singer Billy Joel suggested in his 1979 international hit of the same name.

And besides, if the French population at large doesn't expect its politicians to be particularly honest (ooh - now that sounds like good material for yet another survey, surely) maybe this poll is nothing for the former president to worry about.

Fancy a little Billy Joel to finish off?

Do polls "predicting" François Hollande defeat in first round 2017 French presidential elections make any sense?

Ah political polls. Don't you just love 'em?

The frequency with which they're commissioned and published in France would have you believe the French do...well at least the country's media does when the news schedule is slack or journalists feel like a good old job of "professional" political speculation.

The latest "nonsense" poll to be published is one carried out by OpinionWay for Le Figaro and LCI telling us that if the 2017 presidential election were to take place today (well, you know how these things work) François Hollande would not make it past the first round.

He would only win 18 per cent of the vote in the first round, trailing both the far-right Front National (FN) leader Marine Le Pen (25 per cent) and the (presumed) candidate for the centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP) Nicolas Sarkozy (29 per cent).

In other words the presidential second round in 2017 would be between Le Pen and Sarkozy.

(screenshot OpinionWay poll of voting intentions)

"Allô ! Non mais allô, quoi," to quote a great modern day French thinker.

What's this all about.

Seriously - forecasting results three years hence, based on a poll taken today is...well, misleading to say the least.

Of course it's probably one of the drawbacks of the "quinquennat" or the five-year presidential mandate passed by Jacques Chirac in 2000 and first used in 2002 to replace the previous seven-year term in office.

No sooner has a president been elected in France, than attention seems to focus on what might or could happen five years down the line.

Of course Hollande is unpopular at the moment. We know that because...well the polls keep telling us and the media delights in repeating it.

But predicting that Hollande might not even make it past the first round in 2017 when he's not even halfway through his term in office is...well surely complete and utter nonsense.

In fact it's a non story and one of pure fiction.

Sure it feeds into the widely-held (according to those very same opinion polls) belief that Hollande is incompetent, lacks clear vision and was the major reason for his Socialist party's defeat in last month's local elections,

But in and of itself, the survey says nothing about the likely outcome in 2017. Rather it's just a snapshot of current opinion and the image those polled have of Hollande.

After all, if a week is proverbially "a long time in politics", what the heck does that make three years?

Not convinced? Then just take a look at what a poll, taken at a similar stage during Sarkozy's term in office, predicted for the first round of the 2012 election - two years before the Dominique Strauss-Kahn affair hit the headlines.

Sarkozy followed by Martine Aubry and François Bayrou.



(screenshot La Nouvelle Edition, Canal +)



The actual result (just in case you needed a reminder) Hollande 28.63 per cent, Sarkozy 27.18 per cent and Le Pen 17.90 per cent.

French Socialist party's embarrassment and anger at Jérôme Cahuzac

The so-called Cahuzac affair has been dominating domestic headlines ever since the former budget minister, Jérôme Cahuzac, admitted earlier this week that he had lied (to everyone and very publicly) about having a foreign bank account.

Left, Right and Centre have pitched in to have their say in a matter that touches them all regardless of their political hue.

The French media has taken a very long and hard look at who knew what - or not - and if so, when.

While there's no denying the "moral indignation" expressed in many of the headlines, the scandal of a minister responsible for fighting fraud being allegedly culpable of it himself is not exactly unknown in French politics.

Just think former finance minister Hervé Gaymard and his luxury public-funded Paris apartment in 2005, or former budget minister Éric Woerth  and his "conflict of interests" in the "Woerth-Bettencourt" affair involving his wife Florence in 2010 or, or, or.

Heck, Wikipedia - for all its faults - has a whole page listing them over the decades.

Take a look and trace them backwards perhaps.

Inevitably the president, François Hollande, responded in a manner typical of French leaders. 

He announced the fast-tracked introduction of a new "stable-door-horse-bolted" law on the "publication and control" of ministers' wealth.

Among all the reactions though, perhaps two stand out.

They came shortly after Cahuzac made his admission from two members of his (now former) party; prime minister Jean-Marc Ayrault and trade unionist Gérard Filoche.

Gérard Filoche (screenshot LCI)

Tight-lipped and embarrassed, Ayrault answered the questions put to him on France 2's prime time news, sending out signals of the near-complete incompetence we've come to expect.

Meanwhile over on the all-news channel LCI, Filoche - not encumbered by the responsibilities of high office perhaps - was able to express freely and emotionally just how he felt and more importantly the sense he had that the French had been betrayed.

It doesn't matter what your level of French is, you can see from the gestures and the facial expressions of the two men just how shocked both were.

Somehow though, you can't help wishing that Ayrault had shown just a little more of Filoche's genuine passion.

If you cannot endure watching nine minutes of Ayrault, at least check out the one featuring Filoche.

TF1 prime time news anchor Laurence Ferrari quits

TF1's prime time news anchor Laurence Ferrari will bid farewell to viewers on Thursday evening.

Laurence Ferrari (screenshot TF1 news)

She's off to pastures new(ish), returning to work for the Canal + group with a talk show on Direct 8 which will, in her words, "give her more freedom" and where she'll be able to "bring her experience and personality" - something Ferrari feels she has been unable to do at TF1.

It's hardly the end of an era for French television as the 46-year old has only been presenting TF1's prime time news since September 2008.

That pales somewhat into insignificance compared to the length of tenure of her predecessor, Patrick Poivre d'Arvor (PPDA), who had been doing the job for donkeys years - well 21 of them to be precise.

But her decision came as something of a surprise apparently and the channel now has to look for a replacement.

That of course means speculation is rife and the "usual suspects" are being put forward as potential successors.

Perhaps the most obvious choice would be Harry Roselmack.

He's popular (with viewers) has done the job before (as a stand-in for both PPDA and Ferrari) and currently presents a couple of other programmes on TF1.

But it's only a year since Roselmack announced that he was stepping down from presenting the news to "concentrate on his other projects" - maybe too soon for a return.

Anne-Sophie Lapix, who replaced Ferrari at TF1 when she initially left for Canal + and then again at Canal + when Ferrari returned to TF1 (yes this is very much a game of musical chairs) has already ruled herself out saying she's happy where she is.

And then there's the name of "the dashing" Laurent Delahousse, who has very much stamped his mark on the weekend news over at France 2.

Every time there's a vacancy somewhere (such as when M6 launched its revamped nightly news bulletin or was looking around for a new presenter for 'Capital') Delahousse's name crops up.

He's saying nothing...at the moment.

Mélissa Theuriau? She seems happy at M6 with the fortnightly investigative magazine 'Zone Interdite'.

Julien Arnaud is another possibility. He's currently the replacement for TF1's weekend anchor Claire Chazal but there's a blemish on his record as the mid-morning programme he presented, 'Près de chez vous', was cancelled a year ago after just five months.

And let's not forget Ferrari's former husband Thomas Hugues (hold on to your hats, here comes more musical chairs).

He used to fill in for Chazal at the weekends and present TF1's Sunday evening magazine  'Sept à Huit' with Ferrari.

Both jobs were handed to Roselmack when Ferrari left for Canal + first time around and Hugues went to...well everywhere and nowhere really, most notably i>Télé.

On second thoughts perhaps Hugues is simply too lightweight to be considered.

In the short term it'll be TF1's former London and Washington correspondent Gilles Bouleau who'll take over.

He has been Ferrari's stand-in since Roselmack resigned (aaaaaaargh - this is impossible to follow isn't it) and is also being touted by some as a potential full-time replacement, especially as he comes with little "celebrity status" baggage.

The successful candidate will surely need to be someone the French feel they can - in a manner of speaking - welcome into their homes every evening and who has the stature and credibility of being both a presenter and a journalist.

Those aren't easy roles to combine in a country where the softly-softly deferential approach is often the preferred one especially when "interviewing" political leaders on TV.

Whoever TF1 chooses, the likelihood is that the decision will be made with one eye on audience figures.

Yes,  TV is news is ratings-driven and that has been a constant criticism levelled at Ferrari with the numbers tuning in to watch falling from a nightly average of 9.1 million when she took over to around 6.4 million.

It would be unfair to put that down solely to Ferrari.

She has been up against stiff competition, most notably from David Pujadas who presents the equivalent prime time news programme at exactly the same time as Ferrari over at the public channel France 2.

And there has probably also been a change in French viewing habits - not everyone wants to watch the news at eight o'clock in the evening - coupled with a wider choice of channels - in number if not content.

Throw in the fact that there are now competing all-news broadcasters such as BFM TV, i>Télé and TF1's sister channel LCI and it's surely little surprise that viewing figures have dropped.

Finally on a purely professional behind-the-scenes level he or she will have to work with TF1 news director Catherine Nayl with whom Ferrari has apparently had a less than easy relationship.

A touching and tearful goodbye from French TV news presenters

It's one of those moments that only live television can give the viewer; a presenter saying goodbye and being unable to hold back the tears.

That's exactly what happened at the end of Wednesday morning's programme on LCI, one of France's all-news channels.

Audrey Crespo-Mara and Jean François Rabilloud (screenshot from LCI video)

As the French media and entertainment news site Puremédias reports, emotions were running high as the team of Audrey Crespo-Mara and Jean François Rabilloud signed off at the end of the show.

More than that, after four years presenting together, it also marked the end of the partnership as, although Rabilloud still has a week left before the final show of the season and the beginning of the summer break, both are to be replaced in the autumn by Sylvia Amicone and Philippe Ballard.

As the pair alternately presented their adieus and thanked the editors, producers, studio technicians and just about anybody else they could think of, it all became too much for Crespo-Mara who had difficulty holding back her tears.

"My thanks to you my dear Jean-François," she said, turning to Rabilloud and using the informal "tu" form seldom heard among journalists on either television or radio.

"I've spent four marvellous years with you," she continued.

"And it has been the best experience in my professional life."

Rabilloud, clearly prepared for the occasion and certainly less demonstrative in his emotions appeared touched.

"Happy holidays and have a good summer," he said offering her a somewhat unglamourous but nonetheless thoughtful pot plant as a leaving gift."

"Here's a hortensia which will accompany you - my dear Audrey. I'll see you (the viewers) in a moment for the latest sports news."

A touching moment indeed in the usually hard-nosed world of journalism, proving that they too, are after all, just humans.

Emotion lors de la dernière matinale de LCI de la saison Vidéo LCIWAT sélectionnée dans Actualité