Faltering fortunes

If a week is proverbially a long time in politics, then eight months must seem like an eternity to some.

And so it would seem for a majority of the French, who according to the latest opinion poll – yes, yet another one – give the thumbs down to the way their president, Nicolas Sarkozy, is going about his daily business.

For the first time since coming to office last May, Sarkozy’s popularity rating has dipped into the negative.

While 45 percent of those questioned are still happy with their president’s “Bling Bling” style leadership, 48 percent aren’t.

Confirmation, as if it were needed, that perhaps the French are getting more than just a little tired with Sarkozy’s shenanigans.

Top of the list of complaints – and there are many – is his failure to live up to his election promises, and in particular the undertaking to increase peoples’ purchasing power.

Certainly Sarkozy has been firing on all cylinders for quite some time now, and his energy is immense. But there has simply been no evidence of an increase in the standard of living, and the euro in peoples’ pockets is not stretching as far as they had been promised.

His defence has been that things take time, there’s no money in the state coffers to finance reform programmes and that people need to “work more to earn more”. The mantra does not seem to have won him too many friends among the general public, especially as the only financial concessions Sarkozy has made so far are tax breaks for the already well off.

Of course his constant media presence outside the political arena hasn’t helped matters much either and in particular the way his private life has made the headlines.

Divorce, a new girlfriend and rumours of marriage – all in the space of just three months – are perhaps proving just too testing for the French. They’re not used to seeing their presidents hang out their laundry, and even though there is undoubtedly a huge voyeuristic element (gossip boosts circulation and viewing figures) it just ain’t what they expect from their politicians and certainly not their head honcho.

Some in his party have claimed that the poor man has been “harassed” by a media, which has constantly reported every step of his private life. Clearly on current evidence, he has been a totally unwilling accomplice.

Meanwhile at a time when Sarkozy’s popularity is taking a dip, that of his seemingly long-suffering second in command, the prime minister François Fillon, is witnessing a resurgence.

Now Fillon might not exactly be the most charismatic politician ever to have made the big time – some might say he makes Britain’s Gordon Brown look like the life and soul of any party – but he is generally seen as trustworthy, cautious and dependable - in fact almost the complete opposite to the president.

And while he’s probably never going to hit the highs (or lows) of someone like Sarkozy in the popularity stakes, the latest figures have him fast catching up with his boss, with a 43 per cent approval rating.

Fillon’s self-effacing style may go down well with a public wearied by Sarkozy’s exhausting overexposure, but there is a certain false modesty in play by the prime minister.

When asked exactly what he thinks of what many perceive as the public excesses of his boss, he refuses to comment, maintaining that in his 30-year-long career in politics he has always been loathe to pass judgement on others’ private lives. A statement heartily repeated by most of his government’s ministers.

The problem for Fillon and of course the rest of the cabinet, is that they really are only secure in their jobs for as long as they remain in Sarkozy’s good books. He can hire, fire and tinker with, whenever he sees fit.

But as the latest polls shows even he will have to keep an eye on his ratings.

There’s a limit as to how prepared the French are willing to tolerate simple bad manners such as when Sarkozy was caught on camera writing a text massage during the welcoming ceremony of his state visit to Saudi Arabia earlier this week.

The president has made the local elections here in March a vote of confidence in himself, his government and his policies. He could be in for an unpleasant surprise.

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