A (Ségolène) Royal return to the French government?

Those in the "know" have been speculating about a government reshuffle in France for months and in particular the focus has been on whether the prime minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, is for the chop.

It's a popular media pastime - just ask Ayrault's predecessor in the job, François Fillon, who was constantly the centre of media conjecture as to who would replace him and when.

Jean-Marc Ayrault putting on a brave face at the Salon de l'Agriculture 2014 (screenshot France 3 television)

In the end, Fillon survived the full five years as prime minister during the "reign" of Nicolas Sarkozy's as president.

So far, under François Hollande, not much has happened in the game of ministerial musical chairs.

There has been the minimal of tinkering with only two high profile cabinet members losing their jobs.

In March 2013, the former minister for the budget Jérôme Cahuzac stepped down for "financial improprieties" (aka tax fraud).

And four months later, the ecology and environment minister, Delphine Batho, was effectively fired for openly criticising the government and the budget restrictions being imposed on her department.

They were replaced by two less-than charismatic figures Go on, try to remember their names - the answers at the end of this piece. No cheating.

Apart from that though the 38-strong government has remained unchanged.

Sure there have been disagreements, public spats and "hiccoughs" along the way, most notable perhaps in the relationship between the justice minister, Christiane Taubira, and the interior minister Manuel Valls.

The two haven't always seen eye to eye (far from it) but have been at pains to show how united they are when it counts.

Housing minister (although, as a leading member of the Greens, she probably really, really wants the environment portfolio) Cécile Duflot and the education minister Vincent Peillon have also "spoken out of turn"  - most memorably over their (personal) views on the decriminalisation of cannabis.

And then there's the dear old (well at 51, not so old really) minister of industrial renewal Arnaud Montebourg who, in spite of efforts by both Ayrault and Hollande to restrain him (and others), has happily ignored all attempts to make him hold his tongue.

Remember Montebourg telling Ayrault that the prime minister "ran the government as though it were the local council in Nantes (the city in which Ayrault was mayor for 23 years) ?

Or better still (you can do the translation), "Tu fais chier la terre entière avec ton aéroport."

Anyway, with the local elections just a matter of weeks away, the media has gone into government reshuffle speculation overdrive once again.

Political pundits insist there'll be a major shake-up at some point between the end of March (after the second round of local elections) and the European elections in May.

Ayrault will keep his job for the moment but will in effect just be keeping the seat warm for everybody's darling Valls as the "man of action" and right person to head the government during the second half of Hollande's presidency.

There'll be fewer ministers (well, there could hardly be more...now could there) and some heavyweights (that means party elephants) will be wheeled in to entertain us.

And the names on everyone's lips will be familiar (how surprising) to anyone who has followed French politics over the past couple of decades...honestly.

Valls as prime minister would mean a vacancy at the interior ministry. The media's favourite?

Sit down for a moment.

Ségolène Royal!

Ségolène Royal refuses to be drawn about a possible entry into the government, Salon de l'Agriculture 2014 (screenshot BFM TV)

At the justice ministry, Christiane Taubira has "done her job" and would most likely be succeeded by Élisabeth Guigou, a real blast from the past as she held the same job back in 1997 for three years.

Former Areva boss (at last, someone with experience of industry) Anne Lauvergeon is one of those tipped to take over at the finance ministry (here's a question, why does France need both a finance minister and a budget minister when it has neither the money nor the ability to fund public spending?).

The soon-to-be former mayor of Paris, Bertrand Delanoë, will take over as minister of education.

And so on and so forth with room being made - should she so wish, for Martine Aubry,

Yes, it's all speculative. But that's what the media does best when "reporting" politics.

Perhaps though, it really is time for Hollande to start living up to his presidential election campaign slogan of "Le changement, c'est maintenant".

It would certainly make life more entertaining.




In case you're still scratching your head about the "replacement" ministers they are Bernard Cazeneuve (budget) and Philippe Martin (ecology).

French national identity - the grand debate

Politicians and the media in France have been literally falling over themselves in response to an interview given by the immigration minister, Eric Besson, last weekend in which he said he wanted to launch a major discussion over "national values and identity".

To start from the beginning of November it will be, in the words of the minister, a debate to determine how best “to reaffirm the values of identity and the pride of being French.”

Not surprisingly perhaps reactions came thick and fast with the media quickly jumping on the story.

Radio and television stations asked audiences what they thought about the idea and newspaper websites invited comments.

Reactions from politicians ranged from support from members of the governing centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP) party to scepticism or outright condemnation from opposition parties.

Frédéric Lefebvre, the UMP spokesman welcomed the idea saying that it wasn't "the return of a debate on national identity that should be surprising, but the blurring of that identity."

The leader of the centre Mouvement démocrate (Democratic Movement MoDem) party, François Bayrou, though was more guarded, insisting that defining or determining "national identity is not for politicians."

"It's like history," he said. "It's not up to politicians to try to monopolise the subject."

For Vincent Peillon, a European parliamentarian for the Socialist party, the call for opening a debate on national identity was symptomatic of a certain "sickness" in France and would have an negative effect on how the country was viewed by others throughout the world.

"France has never talked about national identity," he said. "And it's dangerous to open the debate like this."

Benoît Hamon, the spokesman for the Socialist party, was harsher in his reaction accusing Besson of pandering to the far-right Front national (FN) ahead of next year's regional elections in making illegal immigration a central issue before the vote in March.

"Eric Besson is applying the ideas of the FN," he said.

"He's cynically carrying out parts of its (FN's) programme," he continued.

"It's all part of government policy of keeping illegal immigrants in a state of extreme hardship to dissuade them from coming. "

And from the FN itself came the call from Marine Le Pen for a "Grenelle on national identity" to be held, similar to the one there had been for the environment as her party had "a lot of things to say on the subject."

Maybe the most measured response though came from a member of the UMP itself, in the shape of the former prime minister and current mayor of Bordeaux, Alain Juppé.

Writing on his blog, Juppé cited the discourse "Qu'est-ce qu'une nation?" ("What is a Nation?") given by the French philosopher and historian, Ernest Renan, back in 1882.

"The definitions of the nation are numerous," writes Juppé. "It seems to me that the explanation given by Ernest Renan, remains unsurpassable," he continues before quoting from Renan's speech.

"In defining what the nation is, Renan said 'the essential element of a nation is that all of its individuals must have many things in common and they must also have forgotten many things,''" quotes Juppé.

"Renan also said a nation is 'a sense of solidarity, one that supposes a past but is summarised in the present by a tangible fact: the consent, the clearly expressed desire to continue living together,'" continues Juppé.

"Everything has been said," concludes Juppé.

"What's the point of starting the debate all over again?"

Ségolène Royal apologises to Spain on behalf of Sarkozy

Yes you read the headline correctly, Ségolène Royal, the Socialist party candidate in the 2007 French presidential election, has written to the Spanish prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, apologising for remarks made by the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, last week.

And her letter has led to a wave of protest from the ruling centre-right Union pour un Mouvement (Union for a Popular Movement Populaire, UMP) left the Socialist party leadership not quite knowing how to respond and dominated the French headlines for the past couple of days.

Perhaps you remember that Sarkozy is alleged to have made comments during a meal at the Elysée palace (his official residence) in which he criticised some other world leaders.

In a story that made many of the world's newspapers Sarkozy purportedly said for example that Zapatero wasn't particularly clever, German chancellor Angela Merkel lacked vision, and US president Barack Obama was inexperienced.

At the weekend Frédéric Lefebvre, the spokesman for the UMP rejected the story which first appeared in the left-of-centre national daily Libération, saying that it was a "tract" by the paper in an attempt to ruin the reputation of the country.

"This daily, after having lost a number of readers, is also losing its credibility," he said.

Even though some people present at the meal have denied that Sarkozy made such a statement, Libération is standing by its story and the paper's publishing director, Laurent Joffrin has even written to the Elysée palace requesting an apology.

Enter centre stage Ségolène Royal and her "apology" to Zapatero on behalf of the French president - a move which has had the centre-right virtually fuming with indignation and some strong language.

Immediately after news of the letter surfaced, the UMP big wigs and "friends of Sarkozy" started firing their salvoes and attacking Royal.

Xavier Bertrand the president of the party accused her of being "a specialist of manipulation".

Yves Jégo, the junior minister for overseas department put in the boot saying "she has ridiculed and dishonoured our country."

A long-time friend of the French president and now minister of employment, Brice Hortefeux went on the offensive saying that Royal "should apologise for all the silly statements she had made."

And Lefebvre perhaps said what many in the party seemed to be thinking in launching the most personal of attacks and suggesting on national radio that Royal had "lost her marbles" and perhaps needed "psychological help".

So the Socialist party was making headlines again - or more accurately Royal was - as it was her name that was on everybody's lips and featuring prominently within the French media.

Indeed the reaction from the Socialist party itself was mixed. The leadership - namely Martine Aubry, the woman who beat Royal in the race to become the party's general secretary last December, remained silent.

But others - most notably Vincent Peillon, one of Royal's "lieutenants" and most loyal supporters was willing to speak out saying "It's not by getting used to the habit of Sarkozy insulting ipolitical partners that France will rediscover its credibility."

Pierre Moscovici a member of parliament for the Socialist party commented that he was sorry for what were "extremely sexist remarks on the part of the UMP" and Jean-Marie Le Guen, another French Socialist party parliamentarian weighed in by insisting that the rhetoric about who should apologise for what had been a more than a little muddled.

"It's not the declarations of Ségolène Royal that are offensive," he said. "But those of Sarkozy about Spain, Merkel etc."

Into Monday and the debate still raged, this time with a former Socialist party education minister and culture minister, Jack Lang, stepping into the fray.

"I want to say to our Spanish friends, 'forgive her'," he said on national radio.

"How can one react to unsubstantiated rumours that have even been denied by those who were present at the meal and write to the prime minister of Spain 'in the name of France'?" he asked.

"It's completely disproportionate and inadequate," said Lang describing Royal's behaviour as a "faux pas".

So what is everyone supposed to make of Royal's actions?

Perhaps the answer lies in a report made by François-Xavier Bourmaud, a political journalist for the centre-right national daily, Le Figaro.

While the debate continues over whether Royal was right or wrong to do what she did, one thing is for certain. She is back in the limelight and once again using the tactic of "provocation" - a strategy that has proven to be typical of her behaviour in the past, according Bourmaud.

"She lost the leadership battle (in December) but with 50 per cent of the membership behind her she still has a voice that counts - as the polemic surrounding her current statements proves." he says.

"When François Hollande (her former partner) was leader of the party, he responded 'what do you expect me to do? She doesn't behave in the same way politically as the rest of us.' And now the party is seeing yet again that she refuses to play the political game in the same way as the rest of them," he added.

"But in the long term it could help her to establish herself as being far and away the strongest opponent (to Sarkozy) because in two years when the Socialist party is choosing its candidate, it'll probably be based on a series of polemic and one thing is certain - Royal is not going to stop."