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Wednesday 30 July 2008

Delanoë leads polls ahead of November election.

No sorry, this isn't the US presidential vote scheduled for the autumn - perhaps it's time for a breather from that for a moment - but instead the decision by France's opposition Socialist party as to who's going to take over as leader of the party and be the likely candidate in the 2012 presidential elections.

It's a vote also slated for November, when the party faithful will gather in Reims to elect a successor to the current chairman, François Hollande.

And there are two "presumptive" front runners eager for endorsement.

First up of course is Ségolène Royal, last year's defeated candidate in the presidential election where she lost in the second round run-off to Nicolas Sarkozy.

And then there's Bertrand Delanoë, the current mayor of Paris, and he comes complete with the backing of one of the party's "elephants" or old guard, Lionel Jospin.

While Royal has long been seen as the likely "pretender" to that most uncomfortable of thrones - a party riven by internal bickering and not helped by Sarkozy cherry picking some of its best known figures for his government - a survey in the national daily Le Parisien, suggests that Delanoë is now (just) ahead in the race to succeed Hollande.

Delanoë, who is widely reputed to be authoritarian in his approach and something of a control freak, has in the past been highly critical of Royal.

While recognising that the Socialist party has been in something of a malaise for several years, Delanoë has insisted that the party didn’t do itself any favours in choosing Royal as its candidate in last year’s presidential elections, even going so far as to accuse her of having run a directionless campaign.

He also firmly rejects any sort of alliance with MoDem, the centre party, and in a recent book outlined his "vision" for the future of the Socialist party, somewhat surprisingly perhaps calling for it to embrace economic liberalism and to accept the principle of competition – long a taboo to many on the Left.

Indeed Delanoë proudly claimed to be a “liberal” himself in the true humanitarian sense of the word of course, and insisted that it had long been a principle abused and misused by the centre-right.

Having Jospin as a backer doesn't seem to have done Delanoë much harm so far. And that's saying something. The former prime minister and unsuccessful Socialist party presidential candidate back in 2002 (when he didn't even make it into the second round run-off leaving the country reeling as Far Right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen went head-to head with the then incumbent, Jacques Chirac) has twice "retired" from politics.

At 71 he now seems to have carved himself a rôle as "kingmaker" so much so that while Delanoë was restricted from being seen to campaign nationally earlier this year during the local elections (he successfully ran for re-election in the French capital) Jospin appeared on his behalf at rallies up and down the country.

For her part, Royal has admitted to mistakes made in last year’s presidential elections and has repeatedly said she wasn’t helped by the lack of real support she received from the party’s elephants, apart from the odd barbed comment and reluctant "pressing the flesh" sessions.

She believes in realigning the party with the centre and in the more populist “listening and hearing” approach to politics. In addition she has already made clear that for her, the leader of the party should also be the 2012 presidential candidate.

Although they're the favourites, Delanoë and Royal don't have the field to themselves. This is after all the Socialist party, which seems to believe that "unity" and "discord" are far from being mutually exclusive. There are a whole host of other candidates - declared or not - many well-known here in France, if not abroad.

Foremost among them are two names perhaps worth mentioning. There's the ex employment minister, Martine Aubry, architect of the 35-hour-working week (currently being dismantled brick by brick by Sarkozy) and daughter of the former president of the European Commission, Jacques Delors. And Manuel Valls the 45-year-old mayor of the Paris suburb of Evry.

Born in Barcelona, Spain, and a naturalised French citizen at the age of 20, Valls is perhaps somewhat in the mould of Britain's Tony Blair when it comes to how he sees the future of the Left in France.

And then of course there's one very important figure within the party, who won't be standing this time around simply because he can't.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn - another of the party's elephants - was neatly temporarily sidelined from national politics after he being nominated by Sarkozy - and approved - as head of the International Monetary Fund, IMF.

But he still manages to pop back from time to time to show his face among the party faithful, has a firm base of support among activists and, get this, his tenure at the IMF is scheduled to end just in time for the 2012 presidential elections here in France.

If a week is often quoted as being a long time in politics, then for both Royal and Delanoë, the next four months must seem like an eternity. At the moment neither has a majority of votes needed to become the next chairman - far from it - and there's likely to be a fair amount of behind the scenes horse trading especially after everyone returns from their summer breaks.

A very public display of infighting is probably the last thing the party can afford, but it's hard to imagine how it can reconcile its differences without airing its dirty linen in the full glare of the French media.

So if you need a break from Obama-McCain later this year - cast your gaze to this side of the Atlantic where there'll be another battle for the top (ish) - albeit perhaps on a slightly less grand scale although the outcome could be just as unpredictable.

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