The Blues

Um. Nic must be a touch disappointed. After such a tremendous first round in the parliamentary elections last week, there were headlines everywhere screaming about a “blue wave” washing through parliament; a virtual tsunami as some some media commentators indelicately put it, and all the Socialists had to look forward to was picking up the pieces and facing an unsure future after a disastrous result.

But proof again that yesterday’s (newspaper) news is only today’s fish ‘n chip wrapping, or whatever the French equivalent might be. Lo and behold, Segolene was all over the place banging her party’s drum during the second week of campaigning (she was clearly taking a breather just before the first round), although not actually standing herself and voters seemingly ignored Sarkozy’s appeal for a whopping majority to give him the green light to force through just about anything he wanted. Meanwhile the Socialists have had a pretty decent showing overall.

In fact his party, even though it still has a healthy majority, actually has fewer seats than in the last parliament. And what’s more his number 2, Alain Juppé, former PM and convicted criminal (he was banished to Canada for a year for his part in some housing scheme scandal – Chirac’s scapegoat) lost his seat and is probably going to have to resign. Bit of a bummer really as he heads one of those super ministries incorporating energy, environment, transport and just about anything else you care to mention.

Them wot know say Juppé failed because of his “troubled” past (finally France seems to be ridding itself of the old corrupt order) and the geezer who would have been his deputy (ministers cannot hold office and be sitting representatives, so if they win, they have to hand their seat over to somebody else) is a complete nobody locally, and the people of Bordeaux wanted someone recognisable more than competent to represent them.

Well that apparently is one of the many reasons for the upset.

Makes you wonder why cabinet ministers bothered standing (four of them didn’t) if they knew that by prior agreement a loss would see them out on their bottoms. Not a very clever move by Sarkozy, unless, unless, unless he just wanted to teach one of Chirac’s former cronies a lesson by appointing him to such a high post, knowing the chances he could come a cropper were pretty high. No Summerton, that is far too cynical a thought.

Contributory factors to the overall less than startling results posted by the UMP (Mr S’s lot)? Well a record low turn out is one. Thereagain that was also used as the reason for the Socialists’ poor showing in the first round. Proof again that you can bend the figures to fit whichever theory you like. Another is the polemic – oh yes, there’s that word again – over PM François Fillon’s proposals for a hike in VAT (the poor persons tax remember) to fund the tax breaks for the better off. Sound familiar? Same old, same old. Sarkozy put the brakes on that during the week after all the furore it created, but the Socialists do seem to have benefited.

Then there’s the voter fatigue issue – which leads to a low turn out apparently, because people have had it up to the gills with traipsing down to the town hall week in, week out and of course a general feeling that the result was a foregone conclusion so why bother anyway.

We’ll let the pollsters and pundits get on with what they do best though. Fact is, Sarkozy has a comfortable majority, he’s going to call an extraordinary session of parliament over the summer to push through a raft of new legislation, and he is still planning to “reach out and touch everybody’s hand” (no I’m not about to break into song) by appointing yet more lefties and centrists to positions of power…..where presumably he’ll be better able to control and supervise them. Whoops another touch of cynicism there.

So no tremendous blue wave then, but enough to be able to surf on happily (to keep the cheesy symbolism going) and a reinvigorated Socialist party, reeling (not) from the split between Royal and Holland with the former likely to take aim at the latter and try to force him to step down as party president before the end of his allocated time in office. Now that could prove to be interesting. Very Michael Douglas/Kathleen Turner, especially as Segolene announced just after yesterday’s results that she had “asked François to leave the conjugal home and pursue his romantic interests elsewhere”. It has all been carefully stage managed of course, as she is about to release a new book outlining the difficulties she had during her campaign for president. Clearly François and his meanderings only compounded the all round back-stabbing she was getting from the rest of the Elephants, the party’s old guard elite.

Gotta feel for her. Maybe NS will draft her into his government. That would really put the cat among the proverbials.

Wonder what colour parliament would be then.