Election fever

The results are in after Sunday’s second round of voting in France’s local elections and the inevitable post mortem has begun.

And of course the interpretation of what actually happened depends to a great extent on political affiliation and whose spin doctoring appears to be most convincing.

But whatever politicians from across the spectrum might say – and they’ve been saying a-plenty – there’s no denying the bare facts. The Left now controls councils in 183 towns and cities across the country while the ruling centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP) and its partners are in charge of 124.

There was the familiar blanket coverage of the results on Sunday evening with the usual suspects gracing the television and radio airwaves and hurriedly shuffling from one studio to the next. Perhaps, in this period of belt-tightening, they were actually sharing taxis, cutting down costs and continuing their hot-air rants as they went.

The UMP of course had been expecting the worst and was suitably prepared. The prime minister, François Fillon, had hauled in all the cabinet ministers ahead of the evening’s declarations for a high-level pep talk, just to ensure that they would all be singing from the same hymn sheet and there would be no loose tongues in front of the cameras and microphones.

Meanwhile the Socialists, while not exactly speaking with one voice – that would be pretty much going against the grain in light of recent party infighting – had practised their collective beaming in readiness for an anticipated triumph.

So faced with the same set of results, both of France’s major political forces were ready to go on the offensive.

For the UMP the technique was simple, with attack being the main means of defence. “No, the results were not a wrap across the knuckles for the government or its policies. These were after all local elections, fought on purely local rather than national issues – whatever the opposition might claim,” they insisted doggedly.

The low turnout – at 61.66 per cent, the lowest since 1959 – was, according to Fillon et al, proof that generally speaking the electorate was happy with how the government was running the country and it hadn’t been a protest or a demand for them to change course.

Reform would continue much along the same lines as it had already begun and all that had occurred was a realignment of the balance of political power after the Socialist party’s dismal showing in last year’s presidential and national elections.


Poppycock, countered the Socialists. With around 12 million eligible voters not bothering to cast their ballot, it was clear there was general disillusion with French politics and the way the country was being governed. The election had been a vote on national issues, otherwise how could the centre-right account for the loss of so many major cities whose incumbent mayors had been perceived as having a pretty successful track record in local politics. Among the UMP losses were Toulouse, Strasbourg, Metz, Caen, Reims and Amiens, which joined Paris and Lyon in returning Socialist councils. And it only just held on to Marseille – the fiefdom of the party’s vice president Jean-Claude Gaudin – by the narrowest of margins.

All proof according the Socialist party’s bigwigs - as if it were needed - that the government had “got it wrong”. Add to that the defeat of two prominent cabinet members, the education minister, Xavier Darcos, and the junior minister for human rights, Rama Yade, and the message was clear. It was now time not just to increase the pace of reform, but also change strategy and focus more on social policy.

Strip away the political posturing and ignore the sensationalist headlines, and the “truth” lies probably somewhere between the two interpretations. It certainly wasn’t a good result for UMP, but nor was it a tidal wave of support for the Socialists and its allies.

Opinion polls show that on the whole the French aren’t too unhappy with the way the country has been governed over the past 10 months and Fillon’s approval ratings have been rising rapidly. There is though there’s a definite and understandable impatience at the government’s inability to deliver on the promised increase in purchasing power, and there’s no denying that was an issue – a national one too – in these elections.

Most telling perhaps is the absence of comment so far from he president, Nicolas Sarkozy, who for once he seems to be keeping a low profile. And that’s in fact what many political commentators have suggested might be the most significant outcome of the elections. 

Sarkozy could now be persuaded to stop trying to fire on all fronts simultaneously and leave the governing of the country to.... well the government. That would allow him to get on with affairs of state and appear more “presidential.” In other words the best lesson he could learn would be to follow the example of his predecessors Jacques Chirac and François Mitterrand, who didn't always feel the need to poke their nose into everything and anything and allowed their ministers to get on with their jobs.

That could be a tough call for Sarkozy and would entail a rapid character makeover, which might prove a little beyond him.

There again with France taking over the rotating six-month presidency of the European Union in July, Sarkozy might find himself kept busy in another political arena.

Blesséd relief for the French perhaps, but watch out the rest of Europe.